Recap: Global stock markets continued to experience volatility as US Treasury yields edged lower, igniting concerns about a recession as signalled by an inverted yield curve. Given the weakening global growth outlook, investors are hoping for a positive US-China trade deal soon.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,617.89 and 1,644.27 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,638.65, down 0.5% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 44.53 billion baht a day.
Retail investors were net buyers of 5.7 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 3.1 billion, while institutional investors sold 1.9 billion and brokerage firms sold 701 million baht worth of shares.
Newsmakers: The US and China held more trade talks in Beijing on Thursday and Friday, with a US administration official cautioning that it could take weeks or even months to get the right deal. "This is not time-dependent. This is policy- and enforcement-dependent," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said.
The Brexit drama drags on, with British Prime Minister Theresa May seeking to salvage her unpopular EU divorce deal by offering to resign. MPs were poised yesterday to vote on the less contentious portions of the deal they have already rejected twice, in hopes of buying more time, but for what, no one knows.
The European Parliament on Tuesday adopted controversial copyright reforms championed by news publishers and the music business, delivering a blow to the tech giants that lobbied furiously against it.
Malaysia's central bank on Wednesday lowered its economic growth expectation for this year and forecast a significant drop in export expansion due to a slowdown in the global economy and the US-China trade war.
Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific announced that it will buy the budget airline HK Express for US$628 million, as it moves to counter competition from the increasing number of low-cost carriers in the region.
Domestic political risk is rising after Sunday's election, given the close vote counts and the prospects for a fragile government coalition, says Kasikorn Securities. Asia Plus Securities expects sideways movement in the SET index until there is clarity about the new government, which could take until July.
Car makers are voicing concerns over potential post-election instability and wage increases that could challenge the automotive market, despite this year's healthy sales projections.
The Bank of Thailand says plans to monitor the mortgage lending curbs that will take effect on April 1 and is prepared to amend them, depending on speculative behaviour, credit quality and financial access for homebuyers.
The SET is open to joining with local and foreign partners to build up the digital asset ecosystem, with a focus on developing three asset-backed digital tokens.
The Revenue Department has given an ultimatum to small and medium-sized enterprises, demanding that they register and comply with requirements for single financial accounts if they want to avoid aggressive tax audits, fines and criminal action in the future.
Strong domestic demand will partially offset declining exports, leading to higher-than-expected GDP growth of 3.9% this year, says the Bank of Thailand.
The value of Thailand's border trade fell 2.5% year-on-year in February, attributed to a strong baht and higher competition from Chinese goods.
The farm price index rose for the first time in 22 months in February, largely because of an increase in paddy prices and a smaller decline in rubber prices, said the Fiscal Policy Office.
The 700-megahertz licence auction will not take place in May as originally planned by the telecom regulator, as more time is needed to work out the terms. Digital TV operators say they would prefer to wait until December.
The 2600-megahertz spectrum is the best option for 5G adoption in Thailand, according to Huawei Technologies Thailand.
The State Railway of Thailand plans to call bids next year for a mixed-use development worth between 35 billion and 80 billion baht on 120 rai next to the SCG head office in Bang Sue.
CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT) plans to introduce corporate-to-corporate (C2C) PromptPay service for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in May.
TMB Bank (TMB) aims for 20% growth in lending, revenue and supply chain clients this year, bolstered by an upgraded digital platform.
Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) aims for higher fee-based income growth in corporate banking this year to stabilise business revenue in the long term.
SET-listed Energy Absolute Plc (EA) plans to start full operation of Hanuman, its largest wind power farm, in Chaiyaphum province this year.
SET-listed WHA Utilities and Power Plc (WHAUP) has earmarked 2.2 billion baht to expand its utility business, with the aim of developing the country's largest expanse of rooftop solar panels, with 25MW in total capacity, by the end of this year.
SET-listed Banpu Plc (BANPU), Thailand's largest coal mining firm, has earmarked US$835 million (26.6 billion baht) for 2019-20 to expand into cleaner energy resources and trim CO2 emissions.
Coming up: Japan will release the closely watched Tankan large manufacturers' index on Monday and China will release the Caixin manufacturing index for March. Germany and the US will release March manufacturing PMI data and the US will release February retail sales.
The US will release February durable goods orders on Tuesday and non-manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, Australia will release February trade figures. The US will release March non-farm payrolls on Friday.
Stocks to watch: Krungsri Securities says its top picks for the second quarter are CPALL, IVL, MTC, SPRC and TOP.
SCB Securities recommends accumulating selected shares when prices weaken. Its Q2 picks are IRPC, IVL, PTTEP, GFPT and TU. Large-cap stocks that could attract fund inflows are PTTEP, TOP and BDMS. Stocks related to investment and consumption are AMATA, STEC and GLOBAL.
Technical view: Maybank Kim Eng Thailand sees support at 1,613 points and resistance at 1,645. DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,610 and resistance at 1,660.
