Good news and bad news for Labour in the crime figures. The headline numbers show that the crime rate, which has been falling overall since 1995, continues in a downward direction. The risk of becoming a victim of crime at 24% is the lowest since the authoritative British Crime Survey (BCS) began in 1981. This is true of both ways of measuring the crime rate, the BCS, and the offences recorded by the police. The figures show that crime fell by 11% according to the BCS and by 5% according to the police data. Tony Blair promises to reduce it by a "further 15%" although it turns out he has at least 5% of this in his pocket already because he is using last year as a baseline. The biggest falls are in the kind of offences - such as burglaries and car crime - that most people suffer.
The bad news is that the headline police figures show violent crime rising by 9%. The BCS say it is on the way down. Part of the difference is explained by changes in the way the police record their figures. But both agree there has been a sharp increase in the use of replica and imitation firearms – up by 66% over the last year. No wonder Tony Blair has promised to introduce the strangely named reduction of violent crime bill within a month of the general election.
