No one was expecting Cicero. Expectations were lowered all round before Jacques Chirac went on French television last night to debate the European constitution. Critics said the 80-strong and Elysée Palace-picked questioning audience would make for nothing but infotainment, and the fact that the president had to be pulled out to help the behind-in-the-polls yes campaign meant he was coming from behind before he began.
Even so, Mr Chirac did not play a blinder. There is little from the French press to suggest he has anything other than a lot of work left to do between now and the May 29 referendum. If, as polls suggest, France votes against the constitution it puts the EU into unknown territory. Denmark and Ireland voted against EU treaties but France is bigger, a founder EU member and – as the French would no doubt agree – more important. As the Financial Times points out, the word "crisis" is part of the EU's lexicon but this time it really could be serious.
Rather than the intergovernmental summits and treaties of protocol, outside events are now making these busy days in the EU's development. A rejection of the treaty is likely to change the ways member states relate to each other and slow down internal reform. But on the outside, the push to the east that came with last year's accession of the former communist countries makes it harder for the EU to avoid becoming a regional power. A report from the International Commission on the Balkans this week called for Serbia to be admitted in a security-led enlargement to prevent its environs falling into lawlessness. There is a need inside and out for European structures, it is just we can't be quite sure at the moment what they will be.
The problem here is that there is not one overriding reason why the constitution will be rejected, if indeed it is rejected. The French no camp think it too liberal and Anglo-Saxon, their British counterparts think it too French and statist. The French no campaign is propelled on the left by opposition to a European commission proposal to increase competition in the services sector. On the right it is driven by the prospect of Turkish EU membership. Neither is part of the constitution.
For yes campaigners, the document is a difficult sell: it incorporates the existing EU treaties, a charter of fundamental rights and reform of inter-government decision making procedures; it also merges the foreign relations jobs into a single foreign minister portfolio with enhanced status. There are other provisions, such as giving the European parliament a greater legislative role, but it has no overriding principle other than to be a document that can call itself a constitution.
The Christian Science Monitor, in a well-argued and clear leader, suggests that its spread may be its greatest weakness.
Many Europeans seem to be reading into it their greatest fears. In France, for instance, it's viewed by many as the end of French sovereignty, and the referendum is a way to punish the government for rising unemployment and painful economic and social reforms.Economist agree
Though the Dutch are usually enthusiastic Europeans, they have been in a grumpy mood lately over the failure of France and Germany to observe budget-deficit limits required for members of the euro area.
If the constitution is rejected, it is likely that some of its elements (such as streamlining intergovernmental decision making and the creation of a foreign minister) will go ahead in later treaties. The International Herald Tribune forecasts an end to enlargement and member states forming coalitions to pursue policies that interest them. But there are dangers that way too. Reuters this week warned a no vote reversing integration could destabilise the euro and that sceptics who argued that currency union could not work without political union might be proved right, especially with the stability pact and economic reform agenda already much weakened.
One thing to bear in mind is that the difficult or close referendum is not a new phenomenon, even in France. In 1992, François Mitterrand won the Maastricht vote with just 51%. It almost makes you want to write a sentence in French beginning "Plus ça change …"
