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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Paul Doyle, Jacob Steinberg and Barry Glendenning

International football: 10 things to look out for in World Cup 2018 qualifying

Roberto Martínez, Raheem Sterling, Harry Arter and Gordon Strachan all have points to prove during these qualifiers.
Roberto Martínez, Raheem Sterling, Harry Arter and Gordon Strachan all have points to prove during these qualifiers. Composite: Getty/Rex/PA/Reuters

1) Martínez and Henry with much to prove in Belgium

What Belgium need most right now is a bit of rigour but they have hired a dreamer. Little about the career of Roberto Martínez suggests he is the man to instil the defensive cunning and balanced plan that a gifted Belgian squad has lacked in recent years. It seems a perverse appointment or at least a hugely optimistic one, because to succeed Martínez will have to temper his idealism and Thierry Henry will have to emerge as a masterful coach. There was no evidence of that or, indeed, of any other useful impact in the duo’s first match in charge: Spain were brilliant in Thursday’s 2-0 friendly victory in Brussels, where Belgium just looked confused. Belgium may still have enough good players to beat Cyprus in their first qualifier on Tuesday and eventually come through a comfortable group but proper leadership will be required is this team is ever to fulfil its potential. Paul Doyle

2) Are the Oranje still bust?

Holland’s attempt to recover from their shambolic Euro 2016 qualifying campaign has started terribly. The manager, Danny Blind, who took charge only halfway through that campaign, has had to contend with unprecedented upheaval over the summer, as both his assistants have stepped down – Dick Advocaat joining Fenerbahce and Marco van Basten taking up a job with Fifa – and this week the director of the Dutch football federation, Bert van Oostveen, also resigned in advance of Thursday’s friendly with Greece, which, to cap everything off, ended in a 2-1 home defeat. Some absences were of the manager’s choosing, as Memphis Depay and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar were among the big names omitted from the squad in the last campaign. Daryl Janmaat has been given a reprieve due to an injury to Ajax’s talented young right-back Kenny Tete. Holland do not have much time to demonstrate radical improvement, as next week they play their first qualifier, in Sweden, and next month they host Belarus and France. There is a high risk of them being shunted off the road to Russia before they find any kind of stride. PD

3) Will Sterling’s good form continue?

Raheem Sterling was one of the main targets of abuse after England’s defeat to Iceland at Euro 2016. Criticised in the media and heckled by supporters, it would have been easy for him to retreat into his shell, especially after a difficult first year at Manchester City. Instead, however, he has demonstrated his resilience by making an excellent start to the new season for City, scoring two accomplished goals and performing superbly in last Sunday’s 3-1 victory over West Ham United. A fresh start under Pep Guardiola has helped. For all the negativity, Sterling proved that he is an intelligent player when Liverpool almost won the league in 2014. Coached properly, he is a major talent. Sam Allardyce would be wrong to see him as a winger who will run in straight lines up and down the flank. His movement is clever and varied, he is spatially aware and his passing is underrated. England would be wise to capitalise on those qualities against Slovakia on Sunday. Jacob Steinberg

4) The return of Verratti

As enjoyable as Italy’s classic counter-punching style was in France, perhaps what held them back in the quarter-final against Germany, other than a couple of comical penalties in the shootout, was the absence of a player who could control the game. With Andrea Pirlo no longer around to pull the strings, they lacked a midfielder who could lift the pressure on the defence by keeping the ball. Yet that might change now that Marco Verratti is fit again and back in the squad after missing Euro 2016 because of injury. Verratti is widely seen as Pirlo’s successor and Italy’s new manager, Giampiero Ventura, is a big fan. He defended the 23-year-old, who is yet to look comfortable under Unai Emery at Paris Saint-Germain, pointing out that he is not being played in his best position. “In Paris, Verratti is playing just behind the strikers, but it’s not the right position for him,” Ventura said. “He is a playmaker. Verratti is not happy in PSG because he is playing in the wrong position. It’s a shame because Verratti is an amazing player.” Expect to see him in a deeper role against Israel. JS

5) How will Wales deal with the pressure?

Wales, led by Hal Robson-Kanu and Gareth Bale, were one of the success stories at Euro 2016. So how can they
Wales, led by Hal Robson-Kanu and Gareth Bale, were one of the success stories at Euro 2016. So how can they build on the glories of France? Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

After such a magical summer, the challenge for Wales now is to maintain the momentum generated by reaching the last four at the Euros. That begins against Moldova and Chris Coleman’s side might discover that expectations have been raised now that they are a known quantity. This is a different kind of pressure. Few people tipped them to go as far as they did in France and although Wales exited the tournament with their heads held high after losing to Portugal, they will need to guard against an emotional comedown. If they are in the right frame of mind, however, everything should fall into place against Moldova. While Aaron Ramsey is missing, the presence of Gareth Bale should be enough against one of the weaker teams in Group D. JS

6) How will O’Neill shuffle Northern Ireland’s defensive pack?

Despite defending his negative tactics in defeat against Poland for Northern Ireland’s Euro 2016 opener, Michael O’Neill proved what a progressive and highly regarded manager he is by making five decisive changes for their next game, against Ukraine. The results were immediately apparent, with Northern Ireland winning 2-0 in a display that showcased all the vim and vigour that had been absent from their first major tournament match in three decades. It could be argued that nerves played a role in Northern Ireland’s opening defeat, while we can only speculate how much of their follow-up victory was down to the puzzling ineptitude of Ukraine.

Northern Ireland acquitted themselves well in France and O’Neill will be forced back to his tactics board before their World Cup qualifier against the Czech Republic following the news that the defender Craig Cathcart, an ever-present during Euro 2016, will miss the trip to Prague through injury. Whether O’Neill slots Paddy McNair, Ryan McGivern or the uncapped Tom Flanagan in to his preferred three centre-back system or reverts to a flat back four remains to be seen, but one suspects it is a detail this thoughtful man will have agonised over during his team’s Austrian training camp this week. BG

7) Time for Strachan to justify his big talk

Alone among the home nations in missing out on the Euro 2016 party after finishing fourth in their qualifying group behind Germany, Poland and the Republic of Ireland, Scotland get back on the competitive trail against Malta on Sunday. During Euro 2016, Gordon Strachan stated, not altogether convincingly, his belief that his side were as good, if not better than many of the teams competing in France. In a World Cup qualifying group boasting Slovakia and England, two of the less convincing sides at Euro 2016, he will get the chance to prove it.

“The mentality is fantastic,” said Strachan of his Scotland side back in June, before stating the need “to find the best system with the best players we’ve got for this next campaign”. Prior to a potentially tricky visit to the Ta’Qali National Stadium, Strachan has already suffered more of the bad luck he feels dogged his team’s attempts to qualify for the Euros – the number of decent players he’s got has dwindled alarmingly.

The Celtic duo Kieran Tierney and Leigh Griffiths will miss the game against Malta through injury, along with the Crystal Palace midfielder James McArthur and his Fulham counterpart Kevin McDonald. As cover, Strachan has drafted in the Rangers captain Lee Wallace and the striker Tony Watt.

Compared to those halcyon days of yore when qualifying for the World Cup was the norm rather than the exception for Scotland, it is a measure of their lack of strength in depth that the former made the most recent of his eight international appearances three years ago, while the latter is currently on loan at Hearts from Charlton Athletic, for whom he scored five Championship goals last season. Despite his lack of resources, Strachan has forged a team that are difficult to beat and rarely come unstuck against minnows. Avoiding slip-ups against Malta and then Lithuania before visits to Slovakia and England will be essential if Strachan’s team are to justify their manager’s big talk back in June. BG

8) Croatia host Turkey in empty stadium

Luka Modric scored the winning goal for Croatia when they met Turkey at the European Championship and has now been named the new Croatia captain.
Luka Modric scored the winning goal for Croatia when they met Turkey at the European Championship and has now been named the new Croatia captain. Photograph: John Sibley/Reuters

A stunning volley from Luka Modric settled the Euro 2016 group game between these nations at a tournament in which neither covered themselves in glory. Turkey failed to advance to the last 16, while Croatia did but eventually went out with something of a whimper to the eventual winners Portugal, much to the delight of a minority of their “support” who appeared to have turned up with the sole purpose of embarrassing the unpopular Croatian Football Federation chairman, Davor Suker, and his cronies. Following the retirement of Dario Srna, Modric has been appointed Croatia’s new captain but will suffer the disappointment of leading his team out into an empty arena after Fifa ordered that their next two home games be played behind closed doors due to repeated fascist chanting. Considering how unsupportive many of those Croats who turned up in France were, this may aid rather than hinder the efforts of Modric and his men. BG

9) Who will line up for Kosovo?

A fledgling member of Fifa, Kosovo will play their first World Cup qualifier when they take on Finland at Turku’s Veritas Stadion on Monday. Quite who will represent them remains unclear, with nearly half of the squad that travelled on Thursday still not certain of receiving clearance to play.

An entire squad’s worth of players who are eligible to play for the Balkan nation state have already played international football for other countries. They’re not bad either: the Swiss trio of Xherdan Shaqiri, Granit Xhaka and Valon Behrami, Albania’s Taulant Xhaka and Lorik Cana, and Belgium’s Adnan Januzaj are all proud of their Kosovan heritage, although despite much speculation it seems as if these big names have not been tempted into applying to switch allegiance.

Can the Xhaka brothers swap Switzerland and Albania for Kosovo?
Can the Xhaka brothers swap Switzerland and Albania for Kosovo? Photograph: Denis Charlet/AFP/Getty Images

A number of others have, and 10 of the 25-strong party for Monday’s game made the journey with doubts remaining over their eligibility to play. Piquantly, four of them have full caps for neighbouring Albania, whose supporters have been particularly disappointed by the decision of the highly-rated Vitesse Arnham winger Milot Rashica to swap sides. Despite the imminence of Kosovo’s first qualifier in a tough group including Croatia, Ukraine, Iceland, Turkey and Finland, Fifa is dragging its feet and has yet to formally clear the players in question to represent a different country. “The various applications are currently pending and being investigated,” said a spokesman. “As a result and in accordance with our usual practice, we are not in a position to further comment on them, nor to give them an estimation of the time line.”

With their first match looming in the face of this obfuscation, the KFF is obviously in need of a decision and has suggested it may take the matter to the Court of Arbitration for Sport if things do not go its way. In the meantime, the Kosovo coach, Albert Bunjaki, must prepare for his country’s maiden World Cup qualifier with at least one contingency plan up his sleeve. BG

10) Arter’s long wait to end in Belgrade

Injury deprived Harry Arter of a chance to make an impact on Euro 2016 but the Bournemouth midfielder is likely, especially given the absence of James McCarthy, to be an important starter for the Republic of Ireland as they kick off their campaign with a tough assignment in Serbia. In a group that promises to be particularly closely contested given the lack of an obvious superpower, teams will be under pressure to make the most of any slight edge, and Arter could be instrumental in Ireland exploiting the suspension of Nemanja Matic. Cyrus Christie, meanwhile, will have his work cut out to ensure the hosts do not make hay from the unavailability of Seamus Coleman. PD

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