Afternoon summary
- Theresa May is under pressure to substantially revise her Chequers plan for Brexit after EU leaders dismissed it at the Salzburg summit much more bluntly than Number 10 expected. While Brussels has always insisted that the integrity of the single market must be protected, and that the plan to allow the UK to effectively remain in the single market for goods but not for services is unacceptable, Downing Street was hoping to today for emollient, compromise language that would allow May to persuade her party that the plan is still viable. Instead, the EU’s most senior figures shot it down. Donald Tusk, president of the European council, said:
Everybody shared the view that while there are positive elements in the Chequers proposal, the suggested framework for economic cooperation will not work. Not least because it risks undermining the single market.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said the EU were “united that, in the matter of the single market, there can be no compromises”. She went on:
No-one can belong to the single market if they are not part of the single market.
And Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said the UK’s proposals were “not acceptable” in their current form, particularly in relation to the single market.
- May has played down the significance of the EU objections, accusing her EU counterparts of engaging in “negotiating tactics”. She also insisted that her plan was the only viable one on the table. At a press conference she said:
There is no counter proposal on the table at the moment that actually deals, delivers on what we need to do and respects the integrity of the United Kingdom and respects the result of the referendum.
She also insisted that she still believed a deal was possible, telling journalists:
If the political will is there on the other side, I’m confident we will reach a deal and to do so is in the EU’s interests as well as the UK’s.
But at the press conference she looked seriously unsettled by what was being said about her plan, and the line of questioning it provoked from journalists. (See 3.18pm and 3.34pm.)
- May said the UK would “shortly” be coming forward with new proposals on the “backstop” arrangements for the Northern Irish border.
- Tusk has confirmed that an EU summit is being provisionally scheduled for the weekend of 17/18 November, but he said it would only go ahead if there was enough progress by the time of the October summit to convince him that a deal could be reached. October was the “moment of truth”, he said.
If we feel that you are able to finalise and formalise our deal in November, I will call this extra meeting, but not as an emergency but as a punchline to effective negotiations before October and during our October European council meetings. What we need today is a common determination on both sides to end our negotiations in October.
- Macron has said that the people who led the Brexit campaign were “liars”. At his post summit press conference he said:
Brexit is the choice of the British people and it is a choice pushed by certain people who predicted easy solutions ...
Brexit has shown us one thing - and I fully respect British sovereignty in saying this - it has demonstrated that those who said you can easily do without Europe, that it will all go very well, that it is easy and there will be lots of money, are liars. This is all the more true because they left the next day, so they didn’t have to manage it ...
Brexit shows that it is not easy to leave the EU. It is not without costs. It is not without consequences.
- Tory MPs have urged May to abandon her Chequers plan in the light of the Salzburg setback. Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a harder Brexit, has always opposed Chequers. After the summit he said:
Everyone expected that there would be some softening of Mr Barnier’s line. That hasn’t happened, it has been made firmer.
I think Chequers now has no supporters at all. I doubt even the Downing Street cat is any longer backing the Chequers plan. I think the time has come for Mrs May to say ‘This is not going to work’.
Interestingly Grant Shapps, the former Conservative party chairman who voted remain, also suggested that in the light of what happened at Salzburg he was becoming increasingly keen on a no deal Brexit.
I notice the blunt message for Theresa May in Salzburg in which Council President @donaldtusk says her Brexit plan won't work for EU. Well, I'm no Brexiteer (in fact I voted Remain), but we may fast be approaching a situation where our handing over £39bn won't work for us either!
— Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) September 20, 2018
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit statement, issued this statement after the summit.
It has been clear for weeks that Theresa May’s Chequers’ proposals cannot deliver the comprehensive plan we need to protect jobs, the economy and avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland.
With just weeks to go until a deal must be struck, the prime minister cannot keep ignoring this reality. She needs to urgently drop her reckless red lines and put forward a credible plan for Brexit.
Here is some more Twitter comment on Salzburg from British journalists.
From the Financial Times’ George Parker
Downing St knew a bust-up was coming, but hadn't expected it until October. Her humiliation in Salzburg makes the Tory conference even more treacherous...and leaves trust between London and Brussels seriously diminished.
— George Parker (@GeorgeWParker) September 20, 2018
From ITV’s Robert Peston
What is striking, with so little time left before Brexit, is that the EU offered @theresa_may nothing she could use to silence her critics at home. Which may imply they have lost confidence she could ever deliver a deal https://t.co/wyVeMvuqGq
— Robert Peston (@Peston) September 20, 2018
From Sky’s Adam Boulton
If the Torirs destroy May, there will be either a people’s vote or a general election or PM Corbyn and quite possibly all 3 (oh and no answer to the UK’s EU question)
— Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) September 20, 2018
From ITV’s James Mates
Theresa May clearly shaken by the unequivocal rejection of her Chequers plan here in #Salzburg At her press conference she seemed angry, and talked repeatedly about UK readiness for 'No Deal'.
— James Mates (@jamesmatesitv) September 20, 2018
I will be wrapping up the blog at about 5pm. But we plan to keep comments open until 6.30pm.
Henry Newman, head of the Open Europe thinktank and a former special adviser to Michael Gove, has an interesting Twitter thread on what Theresa May should do next. It starts here.
a) Suspect there will be some rather rapid re-drafting of May's Conference speech given the Salzburg set back.
— Henry Newman (@HenryNewman) September 20, 2018
Lots of red pen through those passages on Chequers
If I was advising her I'd suggest owning this rejection by @eucopresident in her speech to Conference.
An interesting point from Channel 4 News’ Rhodri Jones.
Strange dynamic: politicial journalists very excited by Salzburg developments ("chequers dead") but currency market unmoved (even though have seemed to react to spurious brexit news recently).
— rhodri_jones (@rhodri_jones) September 20, 2018
Here is my colleague Rafael Behr’s take on the summit.
And here is an extract.
For now, May is the person with whom European leaders have to do business. But, more important, given the alternatives, she is also the person with whom they want to do business. The EU collectively has no interest in undermining or humiliating the prime minister. At the Salzburg summit it didn’t look much like May was getting any favours, but these things are relative. From the continental point of view, she was shown patience, she was indulged. Ultimately the EU cannot give May what she really needs, which is a Brexit model that will simultaneously satisfy the whole Tory party and win support from a majority in the Commons, without inflicting harm on the country. They cannot give her that because it doesn’t exist, never did, never will.
Donald Tusk, the European council president, has tweeted this.
Moment of truth for #brexit talks will be October #EUCO. We expect maximum progress and results by then. https://t.co/MTtoEYpVTB pic.twitter.com/GwXBg2HARA
— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) September 20, 2018
And here is the text of the statement he delivered in the press conference at the end of the summit.
This is from the BBC’s Gavin Lee.
Spanish PM #Sanchez tells me that he’s optimistic that the outstanding #Brexit issue of #Gibraltar (of which Spain has a veto) can be reached by the October EU summit ... pic.twitter.com/DVX0zjjkGD
— Gavin Lee (@GavinLeeBBC) September 20, 2018
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, issued this statement at the end of the summit. On Brexit he said:
Progress has been made, but we’re still far from done. The negotiators must push ahead and look for common ground. This includes on the withdrawal agreement itself – where the discussion on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is still a sticking point – and on the political declaration on the nature of the UK and EU’s future relationship.
The UK’s white paper on exiting the EU and our future relationship is a positive development. But much remains to be done. The challenge ahead of us will be to reach an as ambitious an agreement as possible without infringing the conditions set by the EU, including the integrity of the single market. It’s in everyone’s interest that we reach an agreement and that we avoid a no-deal Brexit. [Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator] has our full backing in that regard.
Briefed by @MichelBarnier on state of Brexit negotiations at informal European Council meeting in Salzburg. Progress made, but still a lot to do. Also discussed internal security: more coordination and better cooperation needed. Read more: https://t.co/uIF18WWsSW pic.twitter.com/JVDLf55s3J
— Mark Rutte (@MinPres) September 20, 2018
Robert Peston, ITV’s political editor, has posted his verdict on the Salzburg summit on his Facebook page. He says it has been a “personal catastrophe” for Theresa May. He thinks May will probably have to revert to proposing a Canada-style free trade deal, but that the prospect of there being a no deal Brexit may be increasing. In that case, writes Peston, “the notion of Parliament exerting control and forcing another referendum on us would begin to look not wholly fanciful.”
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, said at the end of the summit that Theresa May had told him she would present new proposals for the Irish border. But she did not present anything in writing, he said.
Time is running out, people need to know what is going to happen after [Brexit day on] March 29. I really think we have to redouble and intensify our efforts.
Varadkar also insisted the EU was not trying to create a border between Northern Ireland and the Great Britain.
Nobody is trying to dispute the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. We need to get away from the idea of anyone trying to create a border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. That’s not the EU’s objective.
As Reuters reports, Varadkar confirmed that the EU was reworking the existing backstop proposal by the bloc to say that agriculture and phytosanitary checks would be the only physical controls that would need to take place between Northern Ireland and Britain’s mainland.
He also spoke in favour of offering London a declaration as detailed as possible on post-Brexit ties. While he said the remaining EU states did not want to punish Britain, they were determined to defend their single market.
The whole Brexit project is full of risks. I believe we can come to a deal between the European Union, including Ireland, and the UK. But of course that deal has to go through the British parliament, the European Parliament. There are risks at all steps of this.
Here is the first take of my colleague Dan Sabbagh’s story about the summit.
Here is the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg’s take on the summit.
A very clammy afternoon https://t.co/fWKRljL4LK
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) September 20, 2018
Number 10 source says the EU has just 'thrown an elbow' , and it was 'inevitable' that there would be some kind of clash like this during the Brexit process - PM would 'not just roll over'
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) September 20, 2018
2. May's defiance in face of EU resistance would feel v different if she had her party behind her at home - but she can't rely on support from many of them, remember chunks of party trying to kill off Chequers too
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) September 20, 2018
Macron says leading Brexit campaigners are 'liars'
This is what Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said at his press conference at the end of the summit.
- Macron said the Chequers plan in its current form was unacceptable.
It was a good and brave step by the prime minister [Theresa May]. But we all agreed on this today, the proposals in their current state are not acceptable, especially on the economic side of it.
The Chequers plan cannot be take it or leave it.
- He described Brexiter campaigners as “liars”.
Those who explain that we can easily live without Europe, that everything is going to be alright, and that it’s going to bring a lot of money home are liars.
It’s even more true since they left the day after so as not to have to deal with it.
From the agency copy I’ve seen, Macron does not seem to have named any of these liars, but the reference to people who “left the day after” suggest he may have been thinking of Nigel Farage, who resigned as Ukip leader after the EU referendum was over. Many journalists are also assuming he was referring to Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, who along with Farage is probably the most well known Brexiter on the continent. He did not quit after the referendum, but he did resign almost “the day after” the meeting where the cabinet agreed Chequers.
UPDATE: My colleague Angelique Chrisafis says Macron has been saying this for a while.
Macron:"Those who say we can easily live without Europe, that everything is going to be alright, that it's going to bring a lot of money home are liars"
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) September 20, 2018
This has always been his view. In Oct he said:"those who wanted Brexit never told the British people what the cost would be"
Updated
What Salzburg means for May - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat
Here is some reaction to Theresa May’s press conference and the end of the summit from British political journalists and commentators.
From the Spectator’s James Forsyth
Theresa May doesn't have the political room to go Norway even if she wanted to. So, if the EU won't bite on Chequers, then she is going to be pushed back towards Canada
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) September 20, 2018
From Politico Europe’s Tom McTague
May says Chequers is the only option which maintains an open border in Ireland. Not true: there is Barnier's long-preferred single market + customs union model (also backed by the Irish). Many in Brussels are absolutely sure the UK will blink in this game of chicken
— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) September 20, 2018
Whether he likes it or not, Tusk has thrown a hand grenade into Brit politics at the worst possible time for May (before Tory conf). This is **the opposite** of the supposed de-dramatisation strategy to soft-pedal until Oct, hit May hard at EU summit then wait for Nov climbdown
— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) September 20, 2018
From BuzzFeed’s Alberto Nardelli
This doesn't mean Chequers is rejected in its entirety. Indeed aspects of it could form the beginning of negotiations. Throughout the Brexit process, N10 seems to dig its own hole by framing options in crude binary terms that make changes in position look like a major climbdown
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 20, 2018
From the Sun’s Nick Gutteridge
This summit was meant to be about the EU playing nice and giving May a much needed breather. Instead leaders have killed Chequers, delivered a four week ultimatum over Ireland and swallowed the Macron playbook for the EU-UK trade blueprint. All in all not a good day for the PM.
— Nick Gutteridge (@nick_gutteridge) September 20, 2018
From the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour
Sound of Music summit in Salzburg now closer to West Side Story. Macron is going for the jugular. He has his own political future also at stake in the European elections. UK diplomatic outreach so far netted Orban.
— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) September 20, 2018
From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn
That was an extraordinary press conference from May. In the room we could see she was visibly angry and shaking through out it #EUCO
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 20, 2018
From the Independent’s Jon Stone
The only explanation I can think of for this is that she genuinely thought member states today might say Chequers was actually fine despite Barnier repeatedly saying it sucks. But that’s been a total delusion from day one https://t.co/4NsFTGJFgl
— Jon Stone (@joncstone) September 20, 2018
Saying that, I’m actually quite surprised by how brutal member states were today. Lots of people I spoke to ahead of the summit thought leaders would find something nice to say about other aspects of Chequers, but nothing, killed it - and not even a guarantee of a November summit
— Jon Stone (@joncstone) September 20, 2018
From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope
Theresa May channels her Iron Lady in Salzburg. Effectively saying No No No to the EU about the Irish backstop. #brexit
— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) September 20, 2018
From the Sun’s Steve Hawkes
EU27 have just made it more likely Corbyn becomes PM
— steve hawkes (@steve_hawkes) September 20, 2018
and have probably cemented the warm fuzzy feelings Eurosceptics already have towards Brussels
Theresa May's press conference: Snap verdict
That was not quite as awful for Theresa May as the “nothing has changed” general election presser where she had to rewrite her election manifesto after the “dementia tax” self-destructed, but it was not far off. She looked tetchy, defensive and weakened. Number 10 weren’t expecting a breakthrough at Salzburg, but they were hoping that the EU27 would be sufficiently diplomatic, or evasive, to keep the Chequers option in play. The comments we’ve had in the last hour (eg, see 2.20pm, 2.23pm and 2.49pm) indicate that her hopes have been dashed, and that all that’s left for Chequers (at least, its core principles) is for someone to perform the last rites.
A good rule in politics (and life generally) is that nothing is every quite as good or bad as it looks at the time, and the EU stance was not 100% negative. Remember what Donald Tusk said about being “a little bit more optimistic” than he was about there being a deal. (See 2.35pm.)
It is also the case that any sort of progress now, before the Conservative party conference, was always unlikely, because May does not have any space to compromise when she has an appointment looming with 1,000 energised, hardline Tory Brexiters. (2018 will be a good case study for the age-old academic debate about whether party conferences influence policy.) And of course there is always an element of choreography in these negotiations; there has to be a row before there can be deal.
But, still, it did not look as if May was feigning anger and alarm. This did feel like significant setback. The further apart the two sides remain, the harder it is to see how they strike a deal in October.
Q: Do you wish you had not agreed to an Irish backstop?
No, says May. She says she recognises that people in Northern Ireland need to be able to carry on their business across the border as usual.
If there is no agreement that is acceptable to the UK, there will be no deal, she says.
She says she is negotiating to deliver for the people across the whole of the UK, including Northern Ireland.
And that’s it. The press conference is over.
May says the government will not accept a second referendum.
Q: Is your new proposal a new regulatory border, but not a customs border, down the Irish Sea?
Mays says we will see it when it is published.
If there are concerns about the plans for trade, she wants to hear them, she says. She says she recognises there are concerns about the integrity. She has addressed that, she says (in the newspaper article published yesterday.)
Q: The prospect of a November summit is receding. This is a set-back, isn’t it?
May says it is wrong to say she always wanted a November summit. She always hoped for a deal in October.
There is no counter proposal that respects the integrity of the UK and delivers on the referendum result, she says.
Q: You said it was your deal or a no deal. The EU is saying your plan is unacceptable. Isn’t it all falling apart?
May says she always said this would be tough.
She wants to have a Brexit that avoids a hard border in Ireland.
If there are concerns from the EU, “let’s hear what those concerns are,” she says.
(That is an odd thing to say. The EU has been spelling out its concerns all summer.)
Q: Tusk says Chequers is flawed. Other EU leaders say it can’t work. How can you cling on to it?
May says she is negotiating for what the British people voted for.
But she needs to ensure there is no hard border in Ireland. There must be frictionless movement of goods. Her plan is the only one that can deliver this.
She says there are concerns. She wants to know about them.
She wants a deal. But she is preparing for a no deal too, she says.
Q; Have the chances of a no deal gone up?
May says she is working for a good deal. But there is a lot of work to be done.
Theresa May's press conference
Theresa May is now holding her press conference.
She starts by talking about security and migration.
Turning to Brexit, she says she has just had a “frank” meeting with Donald Tusk.
They agree on two issues.
They agree on the need for a backstop. But she says dividing the UK is unacceptable. She will bring forward UK plans shortly.
And, on trade, she says there must be frictionless trade for goods. She says her plan is the only one that offers this.
Here is Sky’s Faisal Islam on where we are now.
#Salzburg latest
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) September 20, 2018
PM: it’s my Chequers Deal or No Deal
Tusk: EU27 agree Chequers “will not work”
Dutch PM: Netherlands is more prepared than UK for No Deal
French PRes: UK politicos who sold Brexit are “liars”
The hills are indeed alive...
'Suggested [Chequers] framework for economic co-operation will not work', says Tusk
Here is the key quote from Donald Tusk, the European council president. Tusk said:
Everybody shared the view that while there are positive elements in the Chequers proposal, the suggested framework for economic co-operation will not work, not least because it is undermining the single market.
Effectively this sounds like the death knell for Chequers.
There are aspects of Chequers that the EU likes, like the proposals for a close ongoing relationship on security and foreign policy, but these were uncontentious in the UK.
What was novel about Chequers was the plan for trade - for the UK to effectively remain in the single market for goods, but not for services, with some complicated customs plan (the facilitated customs arrangement) minimising the impact of the UK leaving the customs union. These proposals are now looking unsalvageable
The press conference is over.
We should be hearing from Theresa May shortly.
Q: Will there be an emergency summit on 17/18 November?
Tusk says he will call one if, in October, he believes there is enough progress to justify one.
He says he would not call it an emergency summit.
Without the “grande finale” in October, there will be no need for one in November, he says.
He confirms the dates - Saturday and Sunday.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, says he would like a deal by October.
But the commission is prepared for a no deal, he says. So don’t worry: “Be happy, don’t worry.”
Tusk says he is 'little bit more optimistic' than he was about there being Brexit deal
They are taking questions now.
Q: [From the BBC’s Katya Adler] EU leaders had spoken about the need for compromise on Brexit. Theresa May thinks she has compromised. Will you, and when? And are you “over-guesstimating” that May will back down on the Irish border.
Tusk says everything is more or less clear now.
There is a need for compromise on both sides, he says.
But on some issues the EU is not ready to compromise. On the EU’s fundamental freedoms and the single market. That is why they are sceptical about Chequers.
He says, on Ireland, the atmosphere was better than it was two or three weeks ago. But it needs more than good intention. The EU needs “tough, clear” guarantees.
He says, without a clear and precise plan for Ireland, the EU will not move on after October.
He says people on both sides will sometimes use tough language. It is a tought game. They are in the middle of a difficult negotiation. He is sad about Brexit. Today he is “a little bit more optimistic” than he was. But he cannot exclude the possibility of there being a no deal Brexit.
We can’t exclude a no deal.
As you know, I was very, very sad because of Brexit but today I am a little more optimistic when it comes to a positive outcome of our negotiations.
Unfortunately we cannot at this stage exclude a no deal - it depends on both sides of negotiations
- Tusk says he is “a little bit more optimistic” than he was, but a no deal Brexit remains a possibility.
Updated
Here’s the BBC’s Norman Smith on the summit conclusions.
Seems to me EU have just called Mrs May's bluff. Do it our way by October or its No deal.
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) September 20, 2018
Tusk says Chequers plan for trade not acceptable because it will undermine single market
Tusk says the EU27 agreed there would be no Brexit agreement without a workable solution to the Irish border problem.
They agreed there should be “as much clarity as possible” on the future trade relationship. He says the single market must be protected and that the Chequers plans for economic cooperation will no work because they would undermine it.
- Tusk says Chequers plan for trade not acceptable because it will undermine single market.
And he says the October summit will be “the moment of truth” when EU leaders will decide if there is enough agreement to justify going on and striking an agrement in November.
- Tusk say the October summit will be the “moment of truth” for the Brexit process.
Updated
Merkel says there can be no compromises on single market
More from Merkel.
German Chancellor Angela #Merkel: "I explicitly want to commend the work done by @MichelBarnier and his team [...] all member states are being involved in the process in an excellent manner, which results in a high level of unity." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) September 20, 2018
#Merkel: "It has become clear today that we need substantial progress until October, and that we then aim to finalise everything in November." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) September 20, 2018
#Merkel: "On the basis of #Chequers, there are a multitude of commonalities, esp on internal security, international cooperation, and many other issues." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) September 20, 2018
#Merkel: "But there are still a number of other issues, e.g. on the future trading relationship. Here we all agreed that there can be no compromises on the matter of the [EU] Single Market. @MichelBarnier will lead negotiations on this basis." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) September 20, 2018
Donald Tusk, the European council president, is speaking now.
He starts by complimenting the hosts.
Here is another Reuters snap from the Merkel press conference.
GERMANY’S MERKEL SAYS WE CAN FIND PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS BUT PRINCIPLES OF COMMON MARKET MUST BE RESPECTED
The main presidency press conference is taking place now. There is a live feed here.
Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, is speaking now. Austria has the EU presidency.
Merkel says substantial progress needed on Brexit by October
Reuters has sent out these snaps from the Angela Merkel press conference.
GERMANY’S MERKEL SAYS THERE IS STILL MUCH WORK TO BE DONE ON FUTURE TRADE RELATIONS AFTER BREXIT
SALZBURG- GERMANY’S MERKEL SAYS IT WAS CLEAR TODAY THAT WE NEED SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS ON BREXIT BY OCT AND SHOULD FINALISE DEAL IN NOV
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is holding her press briefing now, Sky reports.
Theresa May has just gone in for her meeting with Donald Tusk, the European council president, the BBC reports. He will update her on what the EU27 did (or did not) decide on Brexit when they met without her this morning.
PM has just gone into her meeting with Donald Tusk - will he have good, bad, or any news to deliver ?
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) September 20, 2018
David Davis suggests pound would fall in value in event of no deal Brexit
Yesterday David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, released some extracts from a speech he was giving today in Munich. They contained a strong attack on Theresa May’s Chequers plan, and I quoted them yesterday in the blog. Davis has now delivered the speech (text available here) and here are some of the other lines in it.
- Davis said the UK could cope with a no deal Brexit, but he implied sterling would fall in value.
Naturally, in the event that the UK and EU do not reach a deal, then we would leave on WTO terms. I’ve never pretended this is a walk in the park. I’m sure there would be a bumpy period. Nevertheless, it will allow us to be truly independent. We will be able to influence the WTO directly, agree our own comprehensive trade agreements around the world, and lead by example as a truly Global Britain.
It is true that the UK economy would also be disrupted. But our strong services sector, our floating pound and a completely unfettered government would see us through. We would set our sights beyond Europe and open our market to products from around the world. The value of that agility and flexibility ought not to be underestimated.
- He suggested the EU’s refusal to accept technological solutions to the Irish border problem was hypocritical.
It will be necessary to make particular arrangements at the Northern Ireland ports to control goods from the Rest of the World from entering the EU undetected. We already have special arrangements relating to the regulatory control of issues like the Single Electricity market and agri business and in a free trade arrangement there will be no tariffs. So it is perfectly possible to maintain this invisible border by using and developing existing administrative procedures. We can do this with existing technology although up until recently the European Commission dismissed this as “magical thinking” – that has now changed.
Not only does the technology already exist, it has been reported this week that the EU would like to deploy it between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. In essence, Michel Barnier is proposing checks away from the border. This is exactly what we proposed to deal with the North-South border. It is great to see that the EU is engaging with innovative solutions. But the question surely arises – if technology can be used east to west – why not north to south?
- He said the UK effectively spend £24bn a year more a year on collective security than other EU countries.
It is easy to talk about being a good global citizen. Let us put it in figures; if the United Kingdom only spent the European average on defence, international development and overseas diplomatic activity, it would spend £24 billion less than it currently does. Let me say that again: We spend £24 billion more than the EU average on collective security. More than double our contribution to the EU budget.
So it is in everybody’s interest that, post-Brexit, the United Kingdom and the EU stay as close allies and friends.
- He admitted the EU has had its “successes and triumphs” and played down the prospect of any other country wanting to follow the UK and leave.
In the aftermath of our referendum vote, it was understandable that many of our continental friends were dismayed or even angry. However, this irritation with our decision has transformed into an entrenched view that “the United Kingdom cannot be seen to succeed”. Senior politicians here in Germany have said exactly that.
It seems to me that this is the attitude not of an ally, or of a friend, but of an antagonist.
This argument is supported by the doubtful logic that if Britain succeeds then others will be tempted to follow. I say “doubtful logic”, because it is extraordinary for an organisation like the European Union, with all of its successes and triumphs, to believe that the only way it can keep members in the EU is by punishing those that choose to leave. This, to me, seems to show a profound lack of confidence in the project.
- He claimed that, when it leaves the EU, the UK will be able to act as a powerful force for free trade globally.
The reemergence of a G7 country on the trade policy stage cannot be understated. It means the UK can act as a champion of free trade. It means one of the largest service export heavyweights can start to help reverse these damaging trends. This means preserving our traditional free market orientation.
The main end-of-summit press conference will start at 2pm UK time, it has been confirmed.
Update: The press conference with @sebastiankurz, @eucopresident and @JunckerEU will start at +/- 🕰 15:00 as well as the national briefings do. #SalzburgSummit18 #eu2018at
— EU2018AT (@EU2018AT) September 20, 2018
Emergency EU summit to finalise Brexit reportedly scheduled for weekend 17/18 November
A special summit to try secure agreement on Britain’s departure from the European Union will be held in Brussels on Saturday 17 November and Sunday 18 November, the Austrian news agency APA is reporting.
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Liam Fox denies claims he plans to lower UK food standards to get trade deal with US
Today Business Insider has run a story claiming that Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, is “planning to use controversial ‘Henry VIII’ powers to scrap European food standards in order to pave the way for a trade deal with the US after Brexit.”
Fox has now posted a tweet categorically denying this.
I have consistently said that there will be NO lowering of UK Food Standards. To suggest otherwise is completely untrue, false & #FakeNews – such a shame that people pedal rumours and myths that are clearly wrong
— Dr Liam Fox MP (@LiamFox) September 20, 2018
Chequers plan 'dead as a dodo', says veteran Tory former minister
In an interview with the Daily Telegraph (paywall) today Sir Mike Penning, a former Home Office minister, has described the Chequers plan as “dead as a dodo”. Penning is a long-standing Eurosceptic - his first job at Westminster was working as a press officer for the “whipless eight” (Tories who lost the whip because they defied John Major over Europe) in the 1990s - and so his views don’t come as a surprise.
But what is significant is that he has decided to speak out and join the European Research Group. Penning is also a loyalist, and in the past he has steered clear of the ERG (because of reservations about its Etonian chair, Jacob Rees-Mogg - Penning, a former soldier and fireman, is a rare example of a working class Tory). But now he has had enough. He told the Telegraph:
I’ve come to the conclusion that this “put up, shut up” attitude of the prime minister’s - it’s Chequers or nothing - you do as you’re told or else, is a massive insult, not only to my colleagues but also to the voters.
She is playing a game of Russian Roulette with the country which is frankly an insult to the referendum result and all those people who voted, no matter how they voted.
To say to the likes of myself: “It’s Chequers or a hard Brexit”. It’s like making us sit on the naughty step at school. She’s driving MPs like me to the ERG, because they are the only ones actually representing Conservative MPs and their constituents ...
If Chequers comes back to parliament, unless the Labour party vote with her, it will not get through parliament. They are not going to be able to peel off people in the numbers they did in Maastricht. She has to wake up and smell the coffee and take us, her colleagues and the country with her ...
I’m hoping that she will realise that while Chequers is unacceptable to me and the vast majority of the country, she has a golden opportunity now, to change things for the better. Because the EU will make a deal at the last minute - that’s how they’ve always operated. We’re just seeing this all from one end of a telescope and she needs to immediately now turn that telescope around. Because if she comes back with Chequers it’s dead as a dodo.
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These are from RTE’s Tony Connelly.
Breaking: Irish source says Theresa May indicated during this morning's bilateral meeting with Leo Varadkar that she does not believe it is possible that a deal on the Irish backstop can be reached in time for the October European Council. [thread]
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) September 20, 2018
The source described British proposals so far as "only an outline, and we haven't seen specific proposals from the British side." Theresa May was "keen to bring negotiations to a conclusions as soon as possible...She said she doesn't think it's possible by the Oct summit."
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) September 20, 2018
Here are some more pictures from the summit.
Here they are arriving for the group photo.
And here is the family photo.
Katya Adler, the BBC’s Europe editor, doesn’t seem too impressed by the story that was leading the news bulletins on the Today programme this morning. (See 9.25am.)
Talk of EU leaders wanting second #Brexit referendum is somewhat of a red herring. They’ve never hidden fact that wish U.K. would change its mind but they do not believe it’s likely. Not something they’re actively planning for
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) September 20, 2018
Earlier in the week the Financial Times published a very good long read on the Salzburg summit (paywall) by Alex Barker and George Parker. It included this summary of the choices facing EU leaders.
With some obvious relish, senior officials in Berlin, Paris and Brussels have stressed for months that Brexit is not even in the top 20 priorities for their leaders. That, at least, is set to change in Salzburg.
No formal conclusions will emerge from the lunch discussion between the 27 leaders. Nor will there be a big re-evaluation of the EU position. But this will be the moment the assembled leaders are “brought into the file” that will dominate the EU agenda for the next few months.
Once briefed by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, three broad questions loom. One is tactical: should they make clear there will be a special summit in November? France worries that this would relieve pressure on London and let it stall negotiations until the summit.
The second is more political: the Irish border. How should the EU reinforce its support for Dublin, while also “de-dramatising” its proposal to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This “backstop” plan, keeping Northern Ireland within the EU’s customs union and single market for goods, is intended to apply “unless and until” a better alternative is found.
Finally there will be the issue of negotiating strategy, and the form of the non-binding “political declaration” on future relations. At issue is how detailed and clear the statement need be, especially on customs and a “single rule book” for goods — the parts of Mrs May’s Chequers plan that are seen in Europe as unviable. Should EU leaders push to level up the arrangements to a full-blown customs union, level down to a Canada-style free trade agreement or just leave the issue unresolved until after Brexit?
Salzburg may end without a breakthrough but Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister and tanaiste (deputy prime minister), gave a glimmer of optimism about about an eventual Brexit deal.
“I believe a deal will be done,” he told a press conference in Dublin on Thursday. The consequence of no deal would be so severe, especially for Britain, that compromise should prevail, he said. “I believe we’ll find a way through.”
Political “commentary” and “lobbying” needed to give way to intensified negotiations – but a backstop needed to be written into the legal text of any final agreement. “That’s where we can’t be flexible.”
Coveney unveiled a “getting Ireland Brexit ready” public information campaign which will hold events in Cork, Galway, Monaghan and Dublin. Soothing piano music accompanied a corporate-style video about Ireland’s preparations.
The tanaiste rebuffed media reports that some EU partners had floated a quid pro quo between supporting Ireland’s position on the border with ending Ireland’s controversial corporate tax regime. “We have serious challenges to overcome in coming weeks ... but linkage to taxation is not one of them.”
These are from the Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent, James Crisp.
Senior EU diplomat in Salzburg:
— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) September 20, 2018
"Don't expect the dial to move today," he told The Telegraph, "I do expect the dial to move in the run-up to October provided that the British engage and the signal they are sending is that they are prepared to engage."
1/
There will be a discussion on future relationship but no final decision would be reached, the senior diplomat added.
— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) September 20, 2018
He predicted that today's summit would end with a strong statement of the unity of the EU27 and a declaration of "total solidarity" with Ireland.
Here is one of the official photograph’s of the summit dinner last night. It was at the Felsenreitschule theatre, where, as Politico Europe’s Jack Blanchard points out, the Austrian hosts may have been having a sly joke. Blanchard writes:
The venue for dinner was the very same theater made famous in “The Sound of Music” for the Von Trapp family’s last big number. “So long, farewell, auf Wiedersehen goodbye,” the family sang, in the very same hall where May would make her big Brexit speech. Who says Austrians don’t have a sense of humour?
But the image also has more sinister cultural overtones.
The similarity between the EU Summit meeting in Saltzberg & the War Room in Dr Stranglelove is totally 100% co-incidental #eu #summit pic.twitter.com/RxR23fERaR
— Les Colyer - Razor TV (@RazorTelevision) September 19, 2018
This is from my colleague Daniel Boffey.
Emmanuel Macron looks to circle the wagons in Salzburg as populist Hungarian PM, Viktor Orban, accuses the French president of trying to make the British suffer for Brexit and calls for compromise https://t.co/klYucHwto7
— Daniel Boffey (@DanielBoffey) September 20, 2018
This is from the official account of the Austrian presidency of the EU.
Update: The press conference with @sebastiankurz, @eucopresident and @JunckerEU will start at +/- 🕰 14:00 #SalzburgSummit18 #eu2018at
— EU2018AT (@EU2018AT) September 20, 2018
2pm in Austria is 1pm in the UK.
As RTE’s Tony Connelly reports, the Irish PM Leo Varadkar said this morning that Theresa May was “working hard” to find a solution to the Irish border problem but that there had not been much progress since March.
Breaking: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says Theresa May is "working hard" on the backstop issue and describes her as "very sincere" as he arrives alongside French President @EmmanuelMacron to the Salzburg summit h/t @NRKno @philip_lote
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) September 20, 2018
Varadkar: EU is very utd around our view that we need to protect the integrity of the single market + any Withdrawal Agreement, which we can achieve in the next couple of mths, must involve an Irish protocol, a guarantee that a hard border doesn’t emerge in Ireland.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) September 20, 2018
Varadkar: I dont think we’ve made much progress since March. The EU has tabled its proposals which we find workable and legal. The UK has yet to table in writing alternative proposals, but PM May is working hard on that. I think she is very sincere and we’ll see what they produce
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) September 20, 2018
Varadkar and May held a bilateral meeting this morning. Varadkar said it was a very good meeting (see 8.46am) and British sources were also positive about it. Both sides reiterated the need to agree on some form of Irish backstop, even though the differences between both sides on the subject remain.
Here is Politico Europe’s David Herszenhorn on what Jean-Claude Juncker said about Theresa May this morning. (See 8.46am.)
No doubt @JunckerEU can be a master politician. Asked response to @theresa_may intervention on Brexit, the old fox spots the trap. Praise her & it kills her at home. Criticize & it poisons talks. So: “It was interesting. It was polite. It was not aggressive. She is doing her job”
— David M. Herszenhorn (@herszenhorn) September 20, 2018
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has appealed to his fellow EU leaders to maintain their tough approach to Brexit in response to the British prime minister’s demand for compromise at the end of a late dinner at the opening of an EU summit, my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Dan Sabbagh report.
Here is the full Macron quote.
President #Macron on #Brexit this morning at the EU Summit in #Salzburg pic.twitter.com/2lXwdLNZuB
— Gavin Lee (@GavinLeeBBC) September 20, 2018
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban says UK should not be punished for Brexit
The UK does seem to have one firm ally at Salzburg. But it’s Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, who is gradually acquiring pariah status in the EU because of his regime’s rampant illiberalism. Asked about Brexit on his way in, Orban said that some of his fellow EU leaders too the view that the UK “must be punished” and “the British must suffer” because they voted to leave. He went on:
I don’t like that approach at all. So what we need is a fair Brexit and a good cooperation between the UK and the European Union in the future.
No Brexit breakthrough likely today, says Dutch PM
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, told reporters as he arrived at the EU summit this morning that he was not expecting a breakthrough on Brexit today. He said:
My best expectation is that today we will not come to new decisions, but it is an important meeting because it is a chance to discuss what might be the landing ground for a Brexit agreement towards October/November.
But he also said he thought it was “possible still to get to a good deal, both for the UK and the European Union”.
This is from Sky’s Mark Stone.
Dutch PM @markrutte talks to @SkyNews - how close is a brexit deal? Will the EU side compromise as @theresa_may is demanding? #salzburgsummit2018 pic.twitter.com/c3TQI6Wo8I
— Mark Stone (@Stone_SkyNews) September 20, 2018
And David Henig, a former civil servant who helped set up the department for international trade and who now heads the UK Trade Policy Project, is also voice always worth listening to on Brexit. He posted this this morning.
Looks like Salzburg will not be the triumphant culmination of two months building support for Chequers among Member States that the Government seemed to expect (and nobody who analysed their plans did)
— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) September 20, 2018
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, is always worth reading on Brexit. He tweeted this last night.
In Brussels today I was struck that officials on both sides of Brexit talks think a deal really is doable, because all want a deal; but that on Irish border, there has been no convergence of position. Thus I think no deal cannot be ruled out. @CER_EU
— Charles Grant (@CER_Grant) September 19, 2018
The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg thinks he’s right.
Precisely- Everyone seems to think it can be done - but no closer fundamentally on working out how - May certainly can’t budge politically til after Tory conference - but may have to a bit in the end - as the EU may well too https://t.co/7lOlx6Fr7K
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) September 20, 2018
Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, confirmed this morning that there will be a special EU summit in November to finalise Brexit. He said:
There will indeed be a special summit in November, and the states and heads of government will support that.
Most EU leaders would like UK to hold second Brexit referendum, Malta's PM says
This morning the Today programme carried interviews with two EU prime ministers saying they would like to see the UK hold a second referendum on Brexit.
Joseph Muscat, the Maltese prime minister, said there was “almost unanimous” support among EU leaders for Britain to hold another vote on leaving. He said:
There is a unanimous, or almost unanimous I would say right now, point of view around the table that we would like the almost impossible to happen, that the UK has another referendum.
I wouldn’t know what the result would be, whether it would be any different from the first result.
I think most of us would welcome a situation where there is the possibility of the British people putting things into perspective, seeing what has been negotiated, seeing the options and then deciding once and for all.
Muscat also said any deal would be “sub-optimal” to continued membership, saying “it won’t be as easy as yesterday to trade between the two sides”.
Malta held the presidency of the EU in the first half of 2017, which means that Muscat is well qualified to speak about the views of his fellow leaders because during that period he would have spent a lot more time than usual listening to their concerns.
And Andrej Babis, the Czech prime minister, told the programme:
We hope that finally we will reach a deal but basically I am very unhappy that the UK is leaving, so it would be better maybe to make another referendum and maybe the people in the meantime could change their view.
Europe has a lot of problems, we have problems with Mr Trump about tariffs, sanctions with Russia, Brexit, migration and so on. For Europe it’s quite a difficult time.
This does back up the argument made in the People’s Vote paper on how a second referendum could happen published yesterday that the EU would readily agree to extending article 50.
But the support of EU leaders for a second referendum may not held the cause in the UK.
These are from Jonathan Isaby, editor of the pro-Brexit Brexit Central website.
Radio 4 reports that the Maltese and Czech PMs are telling the UK to have another referendum and change our minds on Brexit. EU has form for telling countries to vote again when they make the 'wrong' decision. But I can only see such interventions stiffening the British resolve.
— Jonathan Isaby (@isaby) September 20, 2018
I wonder if the so-called @peoplesvote_uk campaign will be trumpeting their new Maltese and Czech recruits calling for another EU referendum? Because foreign leaders telling us what to do is such a great look...
— Jonathan Isaby (@isaby) September 20, 2018
And this is from the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage.
EU bosses want us to have a second referendum, quelle surprise. https://t.co/YbO2RdglJ5
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) September 20, 2018
UPDATE: Here is Alastair Campbell, the former Tony Blair communications chief and now a leading anti-Brexit campaigner, responding to Isaby.
They’re not telling anyone to do anything. They’re saying they hope there is a @peoplesvote_uk And so does a majority in the U.K. So let’s have a democratic test of the deal #frit #onlysingwhenyourewinning https://t.co/HhX8Bakm9h
— Alastair Campbell (@campbellclaret) September 20, 2018
Updated
Sturgeon says article 50 should be extended if necessary to avoid 'blind Brexit'
Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon has today written to the leaders of the UK’s opposition parties asking them to join her in pressing for an extension to next March’s deadline for leaving the EU to avoid “an economic cliff edge”.
Nearly two years since Sturgeon herself set out the Scottish government’s paper proposing options for remaining within the single market and customs union, the SNP leader said:
It’s time for everyone in the UK political establishment to wake up to the reality of what now faces us. If the choice we face is between no deal and no detail, then an extension to the article 50 negotiation period must be on the table as the only way to avoid an economic cliff edge and allow all alternative options to be considered.
She said that the Westminster government had deliberately created a false dichotomy between a no-deal and the “inadequate” Chequers proposal, but that in reality “it seems increasingly likely that the choice will be between a no deal Brexit and a blind Brexit.” She went on:
Both options are unpalatable and completely unacceptable. A no deal Brexit will – by the UK government’s own admission – lead to dire economic consequences and a shortage of medicines and foodstuffs. Meanwhile, a ‘blind’ Brexit will simply kick all of the difficult decisions into the long grass – but with the UK already out of the EU. Not only would that continue the uncertainty, it would be tantamount to stepping off a cliff edge blindfolded, with no idea of what the landing place will be.
The live feed is now showing EU leaders preparing for their first meeting of the day.
First they mill around.
Then they sit down.
May is sitting next to Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president. But in the clip from the live feed Juncker is talking not to her but to the man on his other side, the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte.
UPDATE: This is from my colleague Lisa O’Carroll.
Juncker's places large book "EU for You" beside Theresa May as they take their seats at EU council. pic.twitter.com/voBEuW688f
— lisa o'carroll (@lisaocarroll) September 20, 2018
Updated
'Interesting, polite, doing her job' - EU chief's non-committal verdict on May's Brexit appeal at Salzburg
EU leaders are arriving at the conference venue for the second day of their informal summit in Salzburg in Austria. Late last night, at their dinner, Theresa May got the chance to try to persuade them to back her Chequers plan for Brexit, but judging by what some of them have been saying as they arrive this morning (there is a live feed here), she was not wholly successful.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, was asked how May was received. His reply was terse. He said:
It was interesting. It was polite. It was not aggressive. She is doing her job.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, was asked about UK objections to the EU position on the Irish backstop as he went in. He sounded relatively unyielding. He said:
We have very clear principles regarding the integrity of the single market, and regarding the Irish border. It was precise in March and it was endorsed by the 27 members. So we have to find collectively, and we need a UK proposal, [a way of] precisely preserving this backstop in the framework of a withdrawal agreement.
And Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, spoke to reporters too. He met May this morning and he said they had had a very good meeting. But time was running out, he said.
Time is running short. There are proposals for another summit in Ocotber, and then in November. Ireland as a country obviously wants to avoid a no deal scenario, we want to avoid a no deal Brexit, but we are preparing for that. We are hiring extra staff and officials, putting in IT systems, we are ready for the eventuality should it occur. But I think we need to redouble our efforts over the next couple of weeks to make sure that we have a deal.
Here is our overnight story on the summit.
I will be focusing mostly on Salzburg today. This morning the 28 EU leaders are discussing security. After that May will leave and the EU27 will have a discussion on Brexit.
The key news will come at the end, when we learn if there has been any progress towards a deal on Brexit, or whether both sides are deadlocked. Here are the two press conferences I have timings for, but there will be others.
2pm: Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, holds a press conference at the end of the summit.
2.45pm: May is expected to hold her own press conference.
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
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