SEOUL--Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have quickly escalated, as North Korea on Wednesday buttressed its provocative stance by revealing four "military action plans" and the South Korean military poised to go on high alert.
The four military action plans were drawn up by the North Korean military upon orders from Kim Yo Jong, the sister of Kim Jong Un who is the chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea and leader of the country. As the blowing up of the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong, in southwest North Korea, was carried out on Tuesday as Kim Yo Jong had warned, it is highly likely for one of the military action plans to be put into action.
Kim Yo Jong, who serves as first deputy director of the Workers' Party, said the military actions are to be taken as retaliation over the releasing of balloons bearing leaflets critical of the North Korean leader into the North by a group of North Korean defectors living in the South.
Pyongyang was unable to get economic sanctions imposed on the country by the international community lifted by the end of last year, which it unilaterally declared as the deadline for denuclearization talks with the United States.
Since the beginning of this year, the flow of goods from China has abated, due to the closure of the China-North Korean border in line with measures taken to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus. Consequently, the economic situation in North Korea is seen to have deteriorated further.
Cha Du Hyeogn, principal fellow at the South Korea-based Asian Institute for Policy Studies, noted in a report released Wednesday that North Korea has been escalating its provocative stance since this month for the purpose of obtaining concessions from the United States by raising military tensions before the U.S. presidential election in November. He added that making South Korea a victim diverts discontent of its people away from the economic plight.
--Seriousness of provocations
Of the four military actions, "the deployment of troops to the Mt. Kumgang Tourist District and the Kaesong Industrial District" would do little real harm and is speculated to be implemented at an early stage. Inter-Korean economic cooperation has already been suspended, and the provocative actions would target facilities in these districts.
When North Korean leader Kim visited Mt. Kumgang last October, he labeled a hotel and golf course built by South Korea as "shabby" and issued orders to have them removed. It is likely that demolishing the facilities was to increase pressure on South Korea.
Of concern is such a scenario that the North would launch attacks on the South as part of its "Reinforcement of readiness of artillery forces and the resumption of military drills."
Between the two Koreas, the area near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), considered as the military demarcation line in the Yellow Sea between the two countries, has been the location for military conflicts in the past.
In March 2010, the South Korea warship Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo off Baengnyeong island, killing 46 crew members. In November that same year, Yeonpyeong island was bombarded from southwest North Korea, leaving four dead, including two civilians.
As a military provocation entailing human loss would lead to completely shut off avenues for dialogue, Pyongyang is expected to consider such an option carefully. But sentiments of alarm are starting to be felt by residents on the islands.
A male resident of Yeonpyeong island in his 60s, expressed worries in response to a telephone inquiry by The Yomiuri Shimbun on Wednesday. "We've been hearing the sounds of what seems to be North Korean artillery exercises frequently since around the end of last year," he said. "What will happen from now?"
-- A gray area
In the Yellow Sea, clashes between fishing boats and public vessels of the two Koreas have occurred from time to time, with the North claiming that the NLL is invalid. As June marks the peak season for catching blue crabs, there are those raising voices of concern about skirmishes between vessels from the two countries, sparked by the latest military action plan for "Battle against South Korea leaflets on the front line."
Kim Dong Yub, a professor at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies, points out that it is feasible that North Korea's fishing boats would cross the NLL to the South Korean side to spread leaflets, with a North Korean patrol vessel trailing behind. "If the people they encounter are North Korean citizens, rather than the military, it would be difficult for the South Korean side to respond," he said.
It is a viewpoint that presents the possibility of the North taking a provocative action in a "gray area" in which it cannot be said that there was a clear military action.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea emphasized a restrained response by saying that it will continue making efforts to keep military crisis from escalating. Depending on what action North Korea takes, however, the situation could suddenly escalate all at once.
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