Maplebear Inc. (NASDAQ:CART), operating as Instacart, delivered stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its fourth-quarter outlook, signaling resilient demand despite intensifying competition in grocery delivery.
JPMorgan maintained its Overweight rating on Instacart after the stock last closed at $36.75 on November 7. The bank highlighted that third-quarter gross transaction volume (GTV) of $9.17 billion slightly topped expectations and surpassed the high end of company guidance.
JP Morgan analysts, led by Doug Anmuth, noted that orders rose 14% to 83.4 million, in line with forecasts, while average order value was roughly $110—down 3.5% year over year but still ahead of estimates.
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Balanced Revenue Drivers, Affordability Push
Revenue rose 10% to $939 million, supported by $670 million in transaction revenue and $269 million in advertising revenue.
JPMorgan said Instacart's continued focus on affordability should remain a major top-line growth driver. The firm pointed out that retailers offering same-as-in-store pricing on the platform have, on average, seen growth roughly 10 percentage points faster than those that do not.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $278 million, or 3.03% of GTV, surpassing JPMorgan's $268.3 million forecast and exceeding the upper end of the company's $260 million to $270 million guidance range.
For the fourth quarter, Instacart guided to GTV between $9.45 billion and $9.6 billion, implying 9% to 11% growth and landing about 1% above consensus at the midpoint. The company also projected adjusted EBITDA of $285 million to $295 million, modestly ahead of expectations of $289 million at the midpoint.
Partnership Depth Eases Competitive Concerns
JPMorgan noted that 80% of Instacart's GTV now originates from non-exclusive retailers. The analysts added that Instacart's deep integrations with those partners should support continued double-digit annual GTV growth, helping ease investor concerns over Kroger Company's (NYSE:KR) new arrangements with Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) and DoorDash, Inc. (NASDAQ:DASH).
Aggressive Buyback Signals Confidence
Analysts also highlighted that Instacart repurchased about $62 million of its common stock and announced a $250 million accelerated share repurchase alongside a $1.5 billion expansion of its buyback program.
The combined capital return represents roughly 15% of Instacart's fully diluted market capitalization. JPMorgan said the move underscores management's confidence in long-term value creation.
Price Action: CART shares were trading higher by 1.74% to $37.39 at last check Monday.
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