The political landscape in the world has become much less predictable. We are now in a situation in which one unexpected event after another occurs, as if we are driving in a thick fog. What is more, we are not sure where we are heading.
On March 8, U.S. President Donald Trump told two visiting special South Korean envoys in Washington that he was ready to hold a summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by the end of May.
Trump's remark surprised the world. But it undoubtedly caught many senior U.S. officials more off guard while taking even North Korea, which had signaled its hope of having a summit meeting with the U.S. leader, completely by surprise.
However, Trump sent a letter to Kim on May 24, unilaterally cancelling their summit meeting, which was scheduled to take place in Singapore on June 12, despite the groundwork having been under way for their planned encounter. Nonetheless, Trump said on June 1 the summit would happen after all. As a result, the world is now disconcerted not only by the North Korean leader's behavior, but also by the U.S. leader's idiosyncratic patterns of speech.
Amid such circumstances, there is one power that has kept its stance toward North Korea consistent for more than 10 years now. That power is Japan. Since the January 2017 inauguration of the Trump administration, Japan has continued utilizing Japan-U.S. summit talks and other occasions to exchange views directly with the U.S. side on the issue of denuclearization of North Korea.
On the international stage, too, Japan has been active in taking the lead in strengthening international cooperation to deal with the North. Japan did so in May 2017 when the leaders of the Group of Seven advanced countries held their annual summit talks in Taormina, Italy.
The G-7 leaders stated in their communique: "North Korea must immediately and fully comply with all relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions and abandon all nuclear and ballistic missile programs in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner."
The international community's determination to seek "complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization" of North Korea is known by the acronym CVID, a key word pertaining to the issue of denuclearization of the North.
Different goals
The CVID goal is distinctly different from what North Korea called "complete denuclearization" in a joint statement with South Korea on April 27, stating their common goal. Pyongyang defines its version of denuclearization as a development that will create "a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula" instead of the dismantling of the North's nuclear program alone.
North Korea has been fearful of the United States' "hostile policy" -- backed by a massive nuclear arsenal. So, the North demands, as a precondition for denuclearizing itself, that the United States do away with such a policy and guarantee the safety of the Kim regime.
Until regime safety is completely guaranteed, the North is highly unlikely to dismantle its nuclear program in compliance with the CVID requirements.
Japan, meanwhile, has placed pressure on North Korea with the goal of having the North comply with the relevant international conventions and agree to the CVID denuclearization process. Only when this happens will it become possible for Pyongyang to begin building a prosperous North Korea and for Northeast Asia to realize regional peace and stability.
Robert Gascoyne-Cecil, 3rd Marquess of Salisbury (1830-1903), who served as Britain's foreign secretary and prime minister during the era of Pax Britannica (British Peace), which lasted from the late 19th century to the early 20th century, wrote that "the success of a diplomatist" requires "a wise concession at one moment, and a far-sighted persistence at another" as well as "sleepless tact, immovable calmness, and patience that no folly, no provocation, no blunders can shake."
In the past, North Korea repeated "folly" and "provocation" while the United States was often so trifled with by the North that its efforts to engage with Pyongyang turned out to be embarrassing diplomatic "blunders." What we now need in dealing with the North is "patience" that cannot be shaken by such negative developments.
Let me go back to the goal to be pursued on the Korean Peninsula following the April 27 summit meeting between the North and South Korean leaders and the upcoming history-making summit meeting between the North Korean leader and a sitting U.S. president. The goal has three dimensions to be considered individually: (1) reunification of the two Koreas; (2) a formal end to the Korean War; and (3) denuclearization of North Korea. Reunification of North and South Korea is an issue that primarily requires discussions between the two Koreas. With regard to the first dimension, Japan should keep up close cooperation with the South Korean government.
As for the second dimension, or formally ending the Korean War, there is no direct role Japan can play. This matter should be settled either by South Korea, North Korea and the United States or with China joining the three countries. The four countries are called "directly involved parties" as they fought in the 1950-53 war.
The third dimension, or denuclearization of North Korea, is the area where Japan has to get directly involved. In this phase, Japan has to ensure that North Korea will definitely proceed with CVID denuclearization and that, for such a purpose, the international community's pressures on the North will be maintained. Also, it is important for Japan to bring about the release of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea.
Japan needs to correctly understand the three dimensions so that it will be able to choose the right path for its involvement in matters developing on the Korean Peninsula. It should be noted that Japan needs to stay in the background.
A good opportunity arose for Japan to solidify international cooperation in pushing for the denuclearization of North Korea on May 9 when it hosted a three-nation summit meeting with China and South Korea. According to Japanese Foreign Ministry officials, the leaders of the three countries "reaffirmed that their countries would cooperate further for North Korea's abandonment of its weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, and ballistic missiles in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner in line with the U.N. Security Council resolutions." What is important here is that the three leaders emphasized the CVID approach.
Japan's path
Even from now on, North Korea may repeat "folly" and "provocation" and the United States may not be free from diplomatic "blunders."
In such cases, it is unnecessary for Japan to feel compelled to hurry to do something diplomatically extraordinary. Instead, Japan should demonstrate the "sleepless tact and immovable calmness" advised by Lord Salisbury, and face the deteriorating world situation with a view to endeavoring to stabilize the international order from a long-term perspective.
The five permanent member states of the U.N. Security Council are supposed to be primarily responsible for the maintenance of the international order. But Russia, China and the United States have each been skeptical of the rule of law and multilateralism and have acted in ways contrary to such norms, which are essential for the good of the world. Under such circumstances, as the failures of the League of Nations in the 1930s illustrate, it is impossible for the remaining two permanent member states -- Britain and France -- to be responsible for the international order on their own.
The difference between then and today is that Japan and Germany no longer seek to destroy the international order. Instead, they are pivotal in defending it. G. John Ikenberry, a professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University, wrote in the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs magazine: "If the liberal international order is to survive … [m]uch will rest on the shoulders of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, the only two leaders of consequence left standing who support it."
The leaders of Japan, Germany, Britain and France are scheduled to take part in this year's G-7 summit session in Charlevoix, Canada, on June 8-9. Japan and the European Union have already finalized negotiations for an economic partnership agreement, which is expected to be signed shortly to create the world's largest free trade area. Japan and the EU should take this opportunity to help reinforce the international order that is based on the rule of law and international rules.
In August 1941, when World War II was about to enter its third year, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued a joint statement, known as the Atlantic Charter, to set the stage for the postwar world order, thus shedding light in the darkness. Now is the time for Japan and Europe to contribute to the world in terms of securing the international order.
-- Hosoya is a professor of international politics at Keio University and the author of numerous books on British, European and Japanese politics and foreign affairs, including his latest titles, "Meisosuru Igirisu: EU Ridatsu to Oshu no Kiki" (Whither Britain? -- Brexit and the EU in crisis) and "Sengo Nippon no Rekishi Ninshiki" (Postwar Japan's historical perceptions), a co-authored book.
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