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When executives, directors, and major shareholders buy company shares, it's often considered a bullish sign. As per Peter Lynch, while company insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, they tend to buy stock for only one reason - because they think the share price is going higher.
Publicly available through Form 4 filings, insider buys by C-suite executives are particularly notable - like the one that just popped up on Ford Motor Company (F) after a long two-year drought of insider buying on the automaker. Here's a closer look.
About Ford
Synonymous with American engineering and an icon of the automobile industry, Henry Ford founded Ford Motor Company in Dearborn, Mich., in 1903. It has gone on to become a global auto giant, designing, manufacturing, and selling cars, trucks, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles. They also offer financing, leasing, and service solutions.
Commanding a market cap of $48.3 billion, Ford stock is up less than 3% on a YTD basis. The stock is underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX), up over 22%, by a considerable margin.
A Rare C-Suite Buy on Ford Stock
John Douglas Field is the Chief EV, Digital and Design Officer at Ford. Formerly of Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA), this is Field's second stint with Ford after serving as a development engineer from 1987 to 1993. In his current role, Field plays a vital role in developing Ford's electric vehicles, creating digital platforms and software for Ford’s entire product lineup, and leading the company’s vehicle and digital design studios.
On Dec. 8, Field purchased 182,000 shares of the company at an average price of $11.0472 per share for a total value of just over $2 million. This marks the first insider buy on Ford stock since Feb. 23, 2021, and the first purchase by a member of the C-suite since April 2020.
Though Ford has underperformed on a YTD basis, the stock is already up more than 8% from Field's Dec. 8 entry price.
Ford's EV Future After UAW Strikes
The UAW strike against Detroit's “Big Three” had a material impact on Ford's operations, but the automaker has since updated its guidance to reflect expected labor costs through 2028, along with a reduction to its earnings guidance. This offers some key visibility for shareholders and removes a significant overhang.
During Q3, revenues were up 11% from the year-ago period to $44 billion, supported by sales growth across its gas, hybrid and electric vehicles. All three core segments of the company reported year-over-year revenue increases, including Ford Blue (revenues of $25.6 billion, up 8% YoY), Ford Pro (revenues of $13.8 billion, up 15% YoY), and Ford E (revenues of $1.8 billion, up 29% YoY).
EPS improved 30% from the prior year to $0.39, up 30% from the previous year, but fell short of Wall Street's expectations.
The company closed the quarter with $51 billion of available liquidity. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, it recorded net cash from operating activities of $12.4 billion, substantially up from $5.7 billion in the same period last year.
Ford has scaled back its electric vehicle (EV) ambitions amid a tough macro environment, but remains committed to the market. Recently, Ford announced a partnership with Xcel Energy (XEL) to develop 30,000 commercial EV charging ports in Xcel Energy service territories across the U.S. by 2030.
Is Ford Stock a Good Value?
Ford stock currently offers a forward dividend yield right around 5%, based on the quarterly dividend of $0.15. Management has said they remain committed to returning 40% to 50% of free cash flow to shareholders.
At current levels, the auto stock looks attractively valued. Ford stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 6.44, forward price/sales of 0.29, and price/book of 1.09, representing a significant discount to sector medians.
Overall, analysts remain optimistic about the stock, which has an average “Moderate Buy” rating and a mean target price of $14.23. This denotes an expected upside potential of about 18.7% from current levels. Out of 14 analysts covering Ford shares, 6 have a “Strong Buy” rating, 2 have a “Moderate Buy” rating, 4 have a “Hold” rating, and 2 have a “Strong Sell” rating.
