Andy Warhol was right; the idea of waiting for something does make it more exciting. The actual waiting bit is a pain in the arse, but the anticipation generated by a weeklong denial of finals football has fine-tuned the footy world’s attention onto four mouthwatering matches.
I often wonder if the AFL’s top brass are brilliant, or just brilliant at getting away with it. The league is heading into the second week of September with finals in four different states, in a postseason as open as could reasonably be expected, basking in the afterglow of its primetime exposure of women’s footy. Be it by luck, or design, rounds of finals footy don’t get much better than this.
West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs
Everything kicks off tonight in Perth ,where the impact of the bye week will be under closest scrutiny. The Eagles were flying before the break, losing just once since round 11 and accounting for Adelaide, Hawthorn and GWS in their final three matches. Will that momentum be interrupted? For the Bulldogs, the week’s rest has increased the likelihood of a number of injured stars making the final 22.
Regardless of how close to full strength the visitors are, a home win has to be expected. Adelaide are the only visiting team to leave Domain Stadium with the spoils this season and the Dogs have lost their last seven in WA. Can an argument be made for a boilover? Only a slim one.
Nic Naitanui’s absence opens the door for Luke Beveridge’s side to gain the upper hand at stoppages, especially if Tom Liberatore is fully fit. Jonathan Giles performed admirably against the Crows but he can’t be expected to turn in dominant performances every week during September. If the Bulldogs can starve West Coast of possession, play the game at their tempo and quieten an influential crowd early, the chances of an upset will increase.
Their next challenge is putting enough points on the board. The Eagles have only twice scored fewer than 92 points at home this season. The Bulldogs have only kicked nine scores above that figure all year, and only once against a top-eight opponent. It’s a serious assignment for a forward line that remains a work in progress. Tom Boyd is a long-term investment, Jake Stringer ended the regular season playing in the VFL, while the absences of Jack Redpath and Stewart Crameri mean the selection cupboard for serviceable tall targets is almost bare.
I can’t look past the Eagles.
Talking Point: The idea of a midseason trade period crops up every season, and each time it vanishes without a trace. I’m a fan of it, in principle. I accept the counterargument that list management is a competitive handicap, but under reasonable limits I’m sure that concern can be accommodated, especially with future draft picks now on the trade table.
With that in mind, how different might tonight’s match feel with Travis Cloke in the visiting forward line? Buying midseason would have forced the Dogs to pay overs, suiting Collingwood. They would have filled a gaping hole in their forward line in a season in which a Hail Mary play has a greater chance than most of contributing to a flag. Meanwhile, a premiership player secures a move that rescues a humiliating season. Surely that’s a win, win, win
Geelong vs Hawthorn
The match of the weekend. It wouldn’t be September without a ding-dong between sides that have won seven out of the last nine flags between them. Both line-ups are filled with finals experience and big game players, and when they come together they have an unerring ability to produce masterpieces.
Neither side are easy to get a handle on this year. I’d argue Geelong’s best is the competition’s best, but it appears only sporadically, and their worst is jarringly brittle. Hawthorn have only shown glimpses of their top form in a season that’s been all about getting over the line. Six wins by nine points or fewer could testify to a resolute Hawthornyness, or that a magnificent dynasty is running on empty. September will provide the answer. This is when getting over the line is all that matters, and if the Hawks can summon that collective will on three more occasions they will rewrite history.
I see this as Geelong’s to lose. They will be expected to dominate clearances, but it’s what happens after that that matters. Often this season they’ve delivered poorly inside 50 and been wasteful in front of goal. If the Cats kick a decent score I can’t see Hawthorn matching it. Geelong’s defence looks as capable of coping with the Hawks’ forward pressure as any side in the competition. Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie and Jimmy Bartel are all seasoned campaigners capable of picking their way through Alastair Clarkson’s turnover trap.
Talking Point: Geelong’s recruiting strategy has been praised throughout the year and Patrick Dangerfield, Zac Smith and Lachie Henderson have all been unqualified successes. However, Scott Selwood looms as the most important new face in just his fourth game in blue and white hoops. The former Eagle looks set to be given the job of nullifying Sam Mitchell on the MCG. Last year Mitchell accumulated between 33 and 35 disposals in each of his four finals.
Sydney vs Greater Western Sydney
The icing on the AFL’s cake is a New South Wales derby to herald Greater Western Sydney’s finals debut. It will be the first of many no doubt, but the guarantee of a bumper crowd in a growth marketplace will be music to the ears of AFL HQ.
The Swans flew home to the minor premiership and are worthy flag favourites at this stage of the finals. It’s a remarkable achievement for a side that’s blooded seven debutants, including Callum Mills, announced on Tuesday as the 2016 Rising Star.
What should be a regulation first versus fourth procession has a major leveller - the venue. Because of the teams involved the SCG is overlooked in favour of ANZ Stadium. The Swans haven’t played there this season, and lost their last two fixtures there last year. The playing surface is 11 metres longer and seven metres narrower than the SCG, but within five metres either direction of Spotless Stadium, home of the Giants.
I think this is the hardest game of the round to predict. Honours are even between the pair this season with each winning on home turf. The Giants’ lack of finals experience is expected to tell at some point, but with two weeks to prepare and playing just down the road, this is a favourable opportunity to acclimatise to the rarified atmosphere.
Talking Point: This is a battle between arguably the two best midfield groups of the year. The Swans rank in the top three for clearances, stoppages and tackles, the Giants top three for hitouts, clearances, centre clearances and stoppages. It’s a cliche that whoever wins the midfield battle wins the match, but it’s unlikely to be more accurate than on Saturday afternoon.
Adelaide v North Melbourne
North Melbourne fans, I feel for you. It’s been a rotten few weeks in a season that strung you along for months only to dump you with an eighth-placed finish, a rancorous atmosphere, and an interstate elimination final. This has been the definition of one season too far for the current list but I think the Kangaroos should be applauded for not dying wondering.
Adelaide will be furious they’re already playing knockout football after stumbling to West Coast last week, but with a flea in their ear they should have more than enough to account for the Roos. The Crows have put at least 100 points past North in their three meetings at Adelaide Oval, and I’d expect their fortnight of frustration to spill over into another sizeable score on Saturday night. The final match of the season in South Australia should be a celebratory one for the home side.
Talking Point: The match and its immediate aftermath will take priority, of course, but a North Melbourne defeat will bring the curtain down on four long and storied careers. All camera lenses will be trained on Brent Harvey as he leaves the field for the 432nd and perhaps final time. Hopefully he, as well as Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo, and Michael Firrito, are afforded sufficient opportunity for their contributions to the game to be acknowledged.
Photograph of the week
Moana Hope is footy’s new cult hero. She starred for the Bulldogs on Saturday night and will be the face of Collingwood’s women’s team in the coming months. She is exactly the kind of eye catching talent a competition looking for airtime in a crowded marketplace dreams of.
Quote of the week
Change is required and change will be made. Instability and change equals chaos and I refuse to let that happen to my club.
Peggy O’Neal delivered one of Richmond’s better individual performances of the season on Monday, confidently addressing the attempted board takeover at Punt Road. The Focus on Footy putsch has been much like the Tigers’ season, full of unfounded promise, lacking in output, and leaving you wondering what insiders see in Damien Hardwick that the rest of us are missing. Clearly things need to change on-field at Richmond but proposing a wholesale board clearout of a club on an even keel financially – and boasting record membership figures – is egregiously heavy-handed.
