I’ve always been drawn to Paul Roos’ logic that it’s the bottom end of a list that decides finals, not the top. September can be as much about avoiding losing as it is winning – and not succumbing to the added pressure of the occasion while retaining a clarity of thought in the most extreme circumstances. It’s a factor arguably more relevant this season with the manic intensity of the modern game placing such a premium on decision-making and the execution of skills under duress.
The top five (can we all agree we’re down to five contenders?) could end the home and away season separated only by percentage. Cases for flag favouritism can be made for all five, but it’s more volatile than recent seasons when a dominant side or two have emerged by this part of winter. Success will depend on myriad factors, including ladder position, finals match-ups, home ground advantage, form, fitness, and much more besides. Selections 17 to 22 on match day should be included on this list.
Fifth-placed Geelong provide an interesting starting point. In Patrick Dangerfield the Cats have the competition’s best player and they have premiership winning experience throughout the ground, but there is a worrying load carried by a precious few.
As injuries have cleared, Chris Scott has used recent matches to tinker with the weaker end of his 22 and the result looks to be arguably the most finals-ready unit on offer. The strong bodies of Scott Selwood, Sam Menegola and Josh Caddy all provide much needed bulk around contests and increase the Cats’ midfield options, while Jed Bews and Josh Cowan have come in and filled roles with aplomb. The result is a potential finals 22 for the Cats that contains only Jake Kolodjashnij and Nakia Cockatoo aged 21 or under.
Fourth-placed GWS are the outlier. With 23 top-20 picks on their list you could mount a case that they have no bottom end when it comes to pure talent. But with so little finals experience in the starting line-up they are this September’s great unknown.
My worry is four of the Giants’ five defeats have come on the road, and they have yet to beat a finalist in enemy territory this season. That will surely have to be rectified if they are to claim their first flag. In back-to-back away defeats to Adelaide and Geelong in round 10 and 11 the tall forward trio of Rory Lobb, Jeremy Cameron and Jonathon Patton kicked three goals between them. Leon Cameron doesn’t have much time left to decide if he can carry such a high risk-reward strategy into September.
Adelaide hold a notable advantage by virtue of selecting the most stable line-up in the competition – and by some margin. The Crows have named just 29 players in 2016, four fewer than Geelong and St Kilda. Within that 29, 22 have featured at least 14 times. This circumnavigates the bottom end debate somewhat as it turns the emphasis onto Don Pyke’s strategy and selection over time. On course for a at least one home final, the Crows’ greatest impediment could be untimely injuries that put stress on any unfamiliar faces required at short notice.
Sydney’s list has stood up incredibly well in a season in which it’s lesser heralded players have been handed plenty of responsibility. The Swans have blooded a remarkable seven debutants, second only to Brisbane for the year. Of those, George Hewett, Tom Papley and Allir Allir have excelled, but it remains to be seen how they cope in the September pressure cooker.
The obvious concern is in the forward half. The Swans are the lowest scorers in the top five with Lance Franklin’s 61 goals a huge distance ahead of second placed Isaac Heeney’s 23. The form and fitness of Kurt Tippett and Sam Reid could prove crucial in establishing how long the Swans’ tail looks in September. In recent weeks Xavier Richards and Dean Towers have been named in the full forward line, with Sam Naismith and Toby Nankervis offering resting bulk. This is a roll call unlikely to strike fear into the hearts of potential flag winning defences, however powerful Sydney’s midfield happens to be.
Which brings us to Hawthorn. For the past three seasons they’ve epitomised the Roos maxim with unheralded squad men excelling at the business end of the competition. That soldier-in, soldier-out mentality will be tested more than ever this time around. The loss of so much talent in the preseason and the consistent run of injuries throughout the year has forced Alastair Clarkson’s hand. Eleven Hawks have featured 10 times or less, suggesting the final selections in Hawthorn’s best 22 are unlikely be nailed on until each weekly match committee.
The bottom end is but one factor at play, but in a season of such tiny margins it could prove crucial. And at this late stage of the year it’s a factor that Cats and Crows fans in particular can look to for encouragement.
Photograph of the week
Melbourne’s Max Gawn turned in one of the individual performances of the season last week against Hawthorn, and this image typifies his impact. It also reminded me of the famous shot of Diego Maradona against Belgium in the 1982 World Cup. Sometimes it just doesn’t matter how outnumbered you are.
Quote of the week
It’s what we play for, we play for success. If you’ve had a 10 or 12-year career without much success, it’s in your rights to go and search for success. It doesn’t guarantee it, wherever you go to, but that’s what we play for.
If you were still labouring under the misapprehension that modern footballers cared more for the badge of the club they were drafted to than personal glory, it’s time to reconsider based on the words of Hawthorn’s Jordan Lewis.
Bits and bobs
Brett Montgomery’s departure from the Western Bulldogs is one of the more curious events of the year. Surprisingly for such a high profile story it wasn’t foretold in the press and has yet to be explained in detail. “The decision to part ways at this time of the year was a mutual one, allowing Brett more time to start planning for the next phase of his career,” was how Bulldogs director of football Chris Grant spun it. Which presumably means Montgomery is lining up (or has been lined up for) a senior coaching gig somewhere else.
There are two standout games for the round. North Melbourne will rage against the dying of the light against a Hawthorn side now compelled to scrap for its place in the top four. We know these groups of players have previous, so with so much on the line, expect this one to be a bit tasty.
Sydney’s trip to St Kilda on Saturday night is an unexpectedly intriguing affair. The Saints are marching in, and a ninth win in 12 matches would see their unlikely finals hope very much alive. A Hawthorn victory earlier in the day could set this one up nicely, especially with the Swans unable to take anything for granted in the race for the top four.
