According to several developers I've spoken to recently, most major publishers have now put a halt on commissioning 'original IP' for current console formats. In other words, there are no new games going into development for PS2 and Xbox, it's all sequels and branded tie-ins from now on...
Of course, we all know why this happens. The transition period between different generations of technology has always been a painful one for the industry. Four to five years in and the dedicated, discerning gamers begin to lose interest in the ageing platforms they have and start saving up for the shiny new ones glittering seductively on the horizon. Which leaves behind a, well, not exactly discerning consumer base.
As Nick Gibson, an industry analyst at Gamesinvester.com, puts it, "the back-end of any console market is dominated by a mass-market demographic that makes more software purchasing choices based on easily identifiable and known brands than on gameplay quality (which it often is unable to discern or not interested in discerning). It is very difficult to generate hit sales for original IP in this market so most publishers do not try."
This is fine if it means publishers are shifting their budgets onto startlingly original new games for incoming platforms. But of course they're not. Take a look at the PSP line-up for example and you have to wade through a sea of brand conversions before you get to anything entirely new. And while leading lights like Final Fantasy creator Hironobu Sakaguchi may talk about ambitious and original projects for next-gen consoles, you know that for most western publishers it's going to be a case of porting over key brands to PS3, Xenon and Revolution as quickly as possible and seeing what sticks. "Publishers are becoming increasingly risk-aware and, as a result, risk-averse," confirms Gibson, "The market continues to become more and more hits-driven and with average development cost expected to exceed $10m/title for next-gen titles, publishers are seeking the sales security of known brands, gameplay genres and developers."
But is this slide into the quagmire of conservatism really the best solution for a frightened industry? Okay, annually recycling the same old tired blockbuster blueprints has worked well for the movie industry, but surely even the most casual of casual gamers expects something more from a £35 videogame investment - especially when it's made on the back of a £200-or-so investment in a brand new console? Didn't the industry almost destroy itself in the early eighties by churning out endless dumb Atari VCS games? Doesn't the law of diminishing returns come into play here? Somehow?
There is… another way.
"The success rate of original IP is considerably lower than that for licensed IP and is far less predictable," admits Gibson. "However, the licensed IP strategy is not one that creates long-term value. Original IP creation and exploitation, although difficult, can deliver greater margins and longer term value growth. Compare the fortunes of Take2 (strong reliance on original IP) versus THQ (historically strong reliance on third party licensed brands) over the last 5 years."
This is an interesting observation, and one born out elsewhere in recent videogame history. In the first few years of the PlayStation's lifespan, for example, several developers, who had been major forces in the 16bit era, were re-invigorated when they stopped porting archaic brands and started developing new IP. Capcom with Resident Evil, Konami with Metal Gear Solid, Core with Tomb Raider… The industry decision makers must remember this.
Relying on solely on sequels is the videogame equivalent of incest – eventually, the gene pool goes stagnant. People have to make brave decisions. Look at GTA – this series started as a 2D overhead-viewed driving shooter in 1998. 2D! 1998! What a leap of faith it must have been for some bright spark at Take Two to greenlight that. But greenlight it they did.
If publishers are wary of putting their best teams on original projects then they need to find a way of supporting small-scale third-party developments. We all know it. Perhaps the solution lies in forging more links with the growing independent games scene. No, I don't mean leeching it for talent and sticking brilliant minds on the next sports sims. I mean funding offbeat micro-studios, donating development tools, maybe even providing a more reliable high-profile distribution model for indie developers - creating something akin to Mirimax or Fox Searchlight.
It would appear that original development for PS2, Xbox and Gamecube – as far as third party publishers are concerned – is dead and gone. Let's hope they at least give it a fighting chance on forthcoming platforms…
