Could we finally be about to find out what it is MPs do want when it comes to Brexit?
That is the hope, at least. After months of stalemate on the Brexit process, MPs have wrestled control of the process away from Theresa May and will hold so-called indicative votes tomorrow (March 27).
These votes will see MPs propose a variety of possible Brexit options – including pursuing a soft Brexit, a clean no-deal exit or even putting a stop to the process altogether – in a bid to uncover what outcome could gain a majority in the House of Commons.
Mrs May has tried twice to get her EU-negotiated Brexit deal through but failed both times by historically large margins. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the 10 Northern Irish MPs propping up the Prime Minister’s Government, continue to object to her terms, especially the conditions in the so-called “backstop” arrangement. Until the DUP is on board, the PM’s deal has no chance of passing.
With Mrs May stuck in limbo, MPs see indicative votes as the only way out of the Brexit hole.
How did indicative votes come about?
It has been an idea doing the rounds for a number of months, with backbench MPs regularly asking the Government to make time for them as a way of breaking the impasse.
The idea was defeated in the Commons two weeks ago by two votes but, after Mrs May was forced to ask for a Brexit extension from the EU and then delayed bringing her own deal back for a third vote, MPs took decisive action on Monday evening, backing holding indicative votes by 329 votes to 302 – a healthy majority of 27 votes.
Monday’s result was costly for the Government with three ministers resigning to vote in favour of holding indicative votes.
The move effectively puts MPs in charge of Commons proceedings all day, allowing them to hold a series of votes.
Did my MP support holding these votes?
All MPs in Bristol and the wider region voted along party lines, with Labour whipping in support of indicative votes and the Tories against.
IN FAVOUR
Kerry McCarthy – Bristol East MP
Karin Smyth – Bristol South MP
Thangam Debbonaire – Bristol West MP
Darren Jones – Bristol North West MP
AGAINST
Dr Liam Fox – North Somerset MP and Trade Secretary
Chris Skidmore – Kingswood MP and Universities Minister
John Penrose – Weston-super-Mare MP and Northern Ireland Minister
Jack Lopresti – Filton and Bradley Stoke MP
Luke Hall – Thornbury and Yate MP
Jacob Rees-Mogg – North East Somerset MP
What will MPs vote on?
MPs were still in the process of deciding what options would be chosen today (March 26) but about seven or eight choices are expected to be on the final ballot paper.
They had until the end of proceedings in the Commons – until about 8pm – to submit their proposals to be voted on.
How Brexit could affect your flights to and from Bristol Airport according to easyJet
The ballot paper options expected include giving the public the final say on any Brexit deal, revoking Article 50 to stop Brexit, a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU or going for any number of soft Brexit variations (i.e. staying in the customs union but not the single market, the Common Market 2.0 proposal of being in the single market with a negotiated customs arrangement).
The Speaker will choose which of the proposals will appear on the ballot paper and will announce his decision between 2pm and 3pm tomorrow.
How will voting work?
The Commons’ voting preference of choice is for MPs to walk through the ‘Aye’ or ‘No’ voting lobbies but for the indicative votes it will be slightly different.
Instead, MPs will be given a piece of paper with every approved option on and they will vote either ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ for each one. The voting will take place after 7pm with about half an hour allotted for all 650 MPs to vote and hand in their forms. Each result will be announced separately after 9pm.
Will this sort Brexit out?
The issue with indicative votes is MPs could prove nothing has a majority or even that everything has a majority (although, that would be unlikely). Tony Blair’s government tried something similar in 2003 when putting forward reforms for the House of Lords but they found MPs could not agree on any of the proposed changes.
MPs have learnt lessons from 2003 and so, because of that outcome 16 years ago, the cross-party gang behind the indicative votes – namely Tory grandee Sir Oliver Letwin and Labour’s Hilary Benn – have pencilled in further votes on Monday, April 1.
Bristol MPs have their say as hundreds from city head for huge People's Vote protest in London
On that day, rather than hold ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ votes on each option, it could be MPs are asked to rank each preference in the same way voters do during Bristol’s mayoral election. That would then see the Brexit option with the least support knocked out and its second preference votes redistributed, with this process continuing until there is only one outcome standing. It would then be up to Mrs May whether to adopt that as her new negotiating position with the EU.
Another fly in the ointment is whether party leaders decide to whip the indicative votes or not. There have been calls for MPs to be given free votes to allow even ministers to vote for options, even if they are not party policy. If free votes are not allowed on Wednesday, then expect even more resignations – on both sides of the Commons – as MPs rebel to vote for their favourite solution.
Indicative votes might not sort Brexit out once and for all but they could guide MPs down the path of consensus.
