Indiana lawmakers' rejection of a plan to create two more Republican congressional seats Thursday was a blow to the White House. But it brought more clarity to how the nationwide redistricting war that President Trump launched could affect the 2026 midterms.
Why it matters: Despite their setback in Indiana, Republicans still stand to pick up a few more seats than Democrats in mid-decade redistricting — for now, at least.
- Whether that will be enough to help the GOP keep control of the U.S. House isn't so clear at a time of growing voter discontent with Trump's economy and immigration policies.
By the numbers: In the six states where redistricting efforts are essentially locked in — Texas, California, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Utah — Republicans are likely to have a net gain of just one to four seats.
- That could make a difference come November 2026. But it's a much smaller cushion than the White House envisioned when Trump kicked off the redistricting war by calling on Texas to redraw its map and create as many as five more GOP-friendly districts.
Florida and Virginia could be the next redistricting battlegrounds, but might not change the overall picture even if they take the plunge and redo their maps.
- Lawmakers in Republican-led Florida are weighing whether to pursue a plan to create two to three more GOP-leaning districts. Democrat-led Virginia could nullify Florida's move by creating two or three more Democratic seats. Some lawmakers there have suggested they'll act only if Florida does.
Catch up quick: Thursday in Indiana's Senate, 21 Republicans joined 10 Democrats to reject the state's proposed new map, 31-19.
- The surprisingly resounding rejection came despite an intense pressure campaign by the White House and GOP leaders — an effort that included Trump's pledge to back primary challengers against any defectors, and hints that federal funding to Indiana could be affected if the new map weren't approved.
The redistricting wars kicked off over the summer when Texas Republicans, at Trump's request, redrew their map to carve out the five new GOP-friendly districts.
- Democrat-led California responded by enacting a map via a November ballot initiative that would create five new Democrat-friendly seats.
- The redistricting wave — or at least debates about redrawing maps — quickly spread to more than a dozen other states.
Reality check: There are no guarantees for Republicans — Trump's low poll numbers and Democrats' successes in this fall's off-year elections indicate he's losing ground with some of the independents and Republicans who backed him in 2024.
- Losses among Latinos, in particular, could undermine the GOP's hoped-for five-seat gain in Texas. Four of the five districts Republicans hope to flip in Texas are majority Latino.
Zoom in: One of the districts flashing warning signs for Republicans is TX-28, where Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar — who Trump recently pardoned of bribery charges — is still seen as likely to win despite running in a significantly redder district.
- Since he issued the pardon Trump has called Cuellar "disloyal" for not switching to the GOP after being pardoned.
- In California, the National Republican Congressional Committee is expressing confidence about their candidates in the redrawn districts, saying they have a history of winning in blue territory and could prevent Democrats from picking up five seats there.
What they're saying: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who'd been making calls to Indiana Republicans urging them to support the new map, downplayed the significance of Thursday's vote.
- "I wouldn't call it a setback," Johnson told Axios. "There's as many as 14 or 15 states now engaged in redistricting efforts, and they all come out however they come out."
- He added: "I've got to deal with whatever maps are finally presented in each state, and we're going to win regardless. We've got a better record to run on, better candidates. We're excited about that, and we look forward to taking the message to the people."
- "This whole redistricting war has been a big waste across the board," Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), whose district has become significantly bluer because of that state's new map, told Axios.
- "Looks like it's gonna be a wash anyway, at the end of it."
Yes, but: Behind the scenes, House Republicans still don't feel great about their chances of keeping the majority.
- History isn't on their side: The president's party has lost ground in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, stretching back to 1938, according to Brookings.
The bottom line: If Democrats win back the House next year — with help from or in spite of redistricting — Trump is looking at a likely repeat of the second half of his first term: oversight investigations and a gauntlet of impeachments.
