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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
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Tom McCarthy in New York

Trump and Sanders win as Cruz shocks by dropping out – Indiana primary, as it happened

Interactive
Indiana results

Summary

We’re going to wrap up our live coverage of the Indiana primaries shortly. Here’s what happened:

  • Donald Trump emerged as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee with a resounding victory in Indiana, as Ted Cruz suspended his presidential campaign.
  • Bernie Sanders scored an upset victory over Hillary Clinton, though the two split the delegate pile. Sanders vowed the nominating race was not over.
  • Cruz did not mention Trump as he mothballed his campaign but called for the Republican party to look to the far horizon (his 2020 bid?).
  • “I’m sorry to say, it appears that path [to victory] has been foreclosed,” Cruz said. “We gave it everything we’ve got.”
  • Trump praised Cruz as “one hell of a competitor” and “a tough, smart guy.” It was a change in tone from the morning, when he had suggested Cruz’s father had had a hand in the JFK assassination and Cruz had brought up Trump’s “battles with venereal disease”.
  • Republican party chair Reince Priebus called Trump the “presumptive nominee.” Trump said: “We want to bring unity to the Republican party.”
  • Many Republicans resisted that call, vowing on social media to support Clinton or, in any case, not to support Trump.
  • Clinton invited supporters to “chip in now if you agree we can’t let [Trump] become president”.
  • John Kasich’s campaign said he was staying in: “Tonight’s results are not going to alter Governor Kasich’s campaign plans.”
  • Cruz did not depart the national stage gracefully, exactly, elbowing his wife in the face on the way:

Here are tomorrow’s local tabloid covers:

Updated

The Indiana breakdown of pledged delegates could see Sanders gain seven. The state also will contribute nine unpledged delegates to the convention who could... reverse that:

Democrats

Turn out the lights...

Podesta: 'Donald Trump is simply too big of a risk'

John Podesta, chairman of the Hillary Clinton campaign, has released a statement saying that Trump is not prepared to be president and is “too big of a risk”. Here’s the statement:

Fundamentally, our next president will need to do two things: keep our nation safe in a dangerous world and help working families get ahead here at home. Donald Trump is not prepared to do either. Throughout this campaign, Donald Trump has demonstrated that he’s too divisive and lacks the temperament to lead our nation and the free world. With so much at stake, Donald Trump is simply too big of a risk. Hillary Clinton has proven that she has the strength to keep us safe in an uncertain world and a lifelong record of fighting to break down the barriers--economic and social--that hold working families back. While Donald Trump seeks to bully and divide Americans, Hillary Clinton will unite us to create an economy that works for everyone.

Bernie Sanders’ speech tonight in Louisville was interrupted for a moment when it looked like he might have won Indiana.

“Let’s hold off,” he said. “Not for sure.” He’s holding a 6-point margin with 86.7% reporting – visit our interactive results map here.

Bernie Sanders interrupted mid-speech with news of Indiana win

Sanders: 'I've got some bad news' for Clinton

Sanders has weighed in on his Indiana win.

I understand that secretary Clinton thinks that this campaign is over. I’ve got some bad news for her.

Sanders has now won primaries in 18 states.

Is this OK? All jokes are off?

O'Malley: Trump 'most racist, fascist' nominee in modern times

Former presidential candidate and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley has some choice words for Trump:

The Guardian’s Ed Pilkington reports from Trump Tower on Trump’s makenice speech:

Flanked by his wife Melania and children, with his controversial campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and convention manager Paul Manafort close by, Trump made an inclusive speech in which he tried to heal some of the open wounds of the past year and begin the long and very difficult process of unifying the party. He even said some kind words about his nemesis Cruz at the end of a day in which further ugly words had passed between the candidates.

“I don’t know if he likes me or doesn’t like me,” he said of the senator for Texas. “But he is one hell of a competitor. He has an amazing future.”

Trump also made soothing noises towards the Republican National Committee and its chairman Reince Preibus. “It’s not an easy job dealing with 17 egos,” referring to the initial crowded pack of Republican presidential hopefuls, before adding: “I guess he’s now down to one ego.”

We’ll have a link to the full piece shortly.

Clinton is hiring up for the general election:

Cruz volunteers in Indianapolis pull off a self-evidently patriotic rendition of the national anthem with moments of near-harmony:

The usually brash New York billionaire struck an unusually subdued tone in his speech. While the speech was somewhat “low energy”, it wasn’t lacking in attacks. These are now firmly centered on Hillary Clinton.

In a preview of Trump’s general election strategy, and recognizing that any successful path for him relies on rust belt states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump focused heavily on trade and jobs.

Echoing his foreign policy speech that he delivered last week, Trump said his campaign was going to be about “America First” - a slogan that may be his general election equivalent of “Make America Great Again.”

When it came to his former rival Ted Cruz, Trump was conciliatory, saying, “he is one hell of a competitor, he is a tough, smart guy.”As Trump was making his pitch for party unity, many high profile conservative activists on Twitter were continuing to say that they will never support a Trump candidacy.

While it remains to be seen whether Trump can first unite the base and then reach out to win over independents and disaffected Democrats, one thing is certain: this election is going to be unlike anything we have ever seen before.

Likely Trump nomination prompts GOP mutiny

On Twitter, at least. Here’s a sampler:

Updated

Trump: “Sarah Palin has been from Day One, incredible.

“Jerry Falwell Jr, from Liberty University... he’s a special guy.

“Tonight I see I won with the evangelical voters.”

More riffing: “We’re going to be saying Merry Christmas again.”

And this is true of the Indiana returns:

“I won with women. I love winning with women.”

Then further good words for Cruz, who hours ago called Trump a “pathological liar” and “serial philanderer” after Trump tied Cruz’s father to the JFK assassination:

I want to congratulate Ted Cruz. He is a tough, smart competitor.

That’s it. Trump is done.

Updated

Trump: 'we have to bring unity'

Trump describes a vision of a country where people “cherish each other”:

We’re going to love each other, we’re going to cherish each other, we’re going to take care of each other, and we’re going to have great economic development.

Trump says he just spoke with Reince Priebus, the Republican party boss, who’s doing a great job.

“I guess he’s down to one” from 17 candidates, Trump says. Kasich must be stewing at that line.

“We want to bring unity to the Republican party. We have to bring unity. ... Many many people are calling, like you wouldn’t believe.”

Clinton calls Trump 'presumptive nominee'

Hillary Clinton has begun fundraising off the Trump nomination:

Trump: 'We're gonna win in November'

“We’re gonna win. We’re gonna win in November. And we’re gonna win big.”

He promises “unbelievably good relationships with other countries” – Mexico? China? – “but they’re going to have to treat us fairly.”

Sanders projected to win Indiana

Bernie Sanders has defeated Hillary Clinton in Indiana, the AP projects. Awkward. But that’s not new to this race. It appears they’ll split the 83 pledged delegates closely.

“The American people understand that coming together always trumps dividing us up,” Sanders said earlier tonight.

Democrats

Trump calls Cruz 'one hell of a competitor'

Trump:

I’ve competed all my life... All my life I’ve been in competitions, different competitions... and I have to tell you that I have met some of the most incredible competitors right here in the Republican party...

Ted Cruz, I don’t know if he likes me or doesn’t like me. But he is one hell of a competitor. He is a tough, smart, guy. And he has got an amazing future. I want to congratulate Ted. I know how tough it is. It’s tough... I understand how Ted feels and Heidi, and their whole beautiful family. I want to just say though, one tough competitor.

Trump: “Hillary Clinton, she will not be a great president, she will not be a good president. She will be a poor president. She does not understand trade. Her husband signed, perhaps, in the history of the world, the single worst trade deal ever done. It’s called Nafta.”

“I’ve witnessed what it’s done really firsthand, and it has been indeed carnage.”

“We’re going to bring back our jobs and we’re going to keep our jobs. We’re not going to let companies leave.”

Trump is mellow in victory, speaking in even tones, conversationally, just riffing.

“We’re going to Nebraska where I just hear we’re doing really wonderfully... and West Virginia. We’re going to get those miners back to work.”

Now he hits Clinton, who had talked about closing mines but then apologized in West Virginia. for saying that.

“Let me tell you,” Trump says, “the miners in Pennsylvania and West Virginia are going to start to work again. You’re going to be proud again to be miners.”

Trump says when he got back to New York tonight and started watching the networks, he realized he could win all 57 delegates in Indiana. “I must say, in staying in various places in Indiana, I turned on the television and all I saw was negative ads.”

“It was the same as Florida. 60,000 negative ads, most of which are absolutely false and disgusting. ... And the people are so smart, they don’t buy it, they get it.”

Trump: 'it's a beautiful thing to behold'

Trump thanks his wife, kids, late parents and brother.

He sounds pleased.

“It’s been some unbelievable day, evening and year...I’ve never been through anything like this... it’s a beautiful thing to behold and we’re going to make America great again.”

Trump takes microphone

Here’s that video stream again:

Priebus: Trump 'presumptive nominee'

The chairman of the Republican national committee says that Trump will nab the nomination and calls for party unity (if he botches the spelling a bit):

Updated

For Ted Cruz, the End is Now. The senator said he expected to win in Indiana. Just the other day, he told voters: “it gives me great comfort that this primary is going to be decided by the Midwestern common sense of the Hoosier State.”

Cruz was right, Indiana has decided the Republican primary. Unfortunately for Cruz the state has decided Donald Trump is the nominee.

After being beaten handily by Trump - all but guaranteeing Trump will now secure the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination on the first ballot - Ted Cruz said he is ending his campaign for president.

In his concession speech, Cruz, perhaps with an eye to 2020, sounded more like a man on the cusp of accepting his party’s nomination than one who was announcing the end of his campaign.

After lengthy speech outlining his vision for the country, Cruz declared, “with a heavy heart, but with boundless optimism for the future, we are suspending our campaign for president”. Cruz’s declaration is an admission that he no longer had a path to victory in his fight against Trump.

Interestingly, missing from Cruz’s extended remarks was any reference to the now presumptive nominee of the Republican Party: Donald Trump. It is clear that Cruz has ended his fight for the nomination. But don’t think he has ended his fight with the billionaire businessman.

Updated

Sanders with edge on Clinton

While we wait for Trump – what’s happening on the Democratic side? With 60.8% reporting, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 53.1%–46.9%. Precincts late to report include some in northwestern Lake County, which is favorable to Clinton – but maybe not favorable enough.

Our comprehensive results map is here:

Updated

Trump to address supporters

We’re expecting to hear from the highly likely nominee shortly. Live video feed will come online here:

Updated

Trump party erupts in cheers

The Guardian’s Ed Pilkington is at Trump Tower:

Cruz winds to a close:

In this fight for the long-term future of America, there is no substitute for victory. There is no substitute for the America that each of us loves with all of our heart…

Thank you to each of you, and god bless you.

Cruz is done.

Updated

Cruz: path to victory 'has been foreclosed'

Cruz thanks his mom and dad, and then “Carly Fiorina, who has been an incredible, phenomenal running mate” – for six days now.

Cruz:

What you have done, the movement that you have started is extraordinary.

From the beginning, I’ve said that I would continue on …

Tonight, I’m sorry to say, it appears that path has been foreclosed.

“No!” his supporters shout.

Cruz:

We gave it everything we’ve got, but the voters chose another path …

With a heavy heart, but with boundless optimism for the long-term future of our nation, we are suspending our campaign.

Updated

As news of his campaign suspension breaks, Cruz continues to speak – he has not actually said it yet.

Here it comes:

Thanks to each of you. Incredible patriots who have fought so hard to save our nation.

I am so grateful to you. To my amazing wife Heidi. To our precious girls...

Updated

Ted Cruz suspended his campaign on Tuesday after a crushing defeat in Indiana’s primary, reports Ben Jacobs:

The Texas senator, who rose to fame with his quixotic 17-day attempt to shut down the government, was the last remaining competitor to Donald Trump with a clear shot at the nomination. However, after staking his campaign on a win in Indiana, Cruz suffered an overwhelming loss in the Hoosier state.

Cruz leaves the race having won 565 delegates and 11 states, including the first in the nation Iowa caucuses. Despite successfully building a strong base among evangelicals and social conservatives, he was unable to expand his following and to pivot to the unpredictable Trump, who repeatedly bashed him as “lyin’ Ted”.

Updated

Cruz suspends campaign

Ted Cruz is suspending his presidential campaign, the Guardian’s Ben Jacobs has confirmed.

It appears those two Trump tweets from about 90 minutes ago really hit the mark. Happy!

Cruz is speaking in the broadest possible terms about the challenges facing Republicans, future generations, the “tyranny of political correctness”, founding values – all the kinds of things you might say if you were announcing the suspension of your presidential campaign.

Updated

Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:

Cruz is talking about how far he’s come, how he’s lived the American dream, how his father was a “teenage immigrant washing dishes”.

“Only in America,” Cruz says.

Which is not the same as “onward to West Virginia”.

Cruz says people have been talking about a contested convention, and the last one 40 years ago. At the time, he says, Ronald Reagan “spoke of the next 100 years”, looking to the distant not the near horizon.

Ronald Reagan spoke with a purpose … that must unite and drive our party now.

Americans are deeply frustrated and desperately want to change the path that we’re on.

Updated

Cruz is striking a valedictory tone in this speech. He is – unusually for an election night – reading from a teleprompter.

America is hopeful, optimistic,. We are not boastful or mean-spirited.

America is brave. We keep our word. And we believe in peace through strength.

What is Cruz trying to say here?

Updated

Hmm...

Carly Fiorina warms up the crowd for Cruz. She says she speaks for the Cruz family and team when she says “how many Hoosiers we have fallen in love with on this campaign”.

Live stream here.

Updated

Eric Trump: Cruz has 'zero road ahead'

The Guardian’s Ed Pilkington sends a dispatch from Trump Tower, where he’s in position to catch the victor’s speech, expected in about 40 minutes.

“The Trump inner circle is already turning up the heat on Ted Cruz to drop out of the race in the wake of the resounding Indiana result,” Ed reports:

I’ve just been talking to Eric Trump, the billionaire’s son, as we wait for the candidate to make his victory speech back on home turf in Trump Tower.

The 32-year-old son of Donald Trump and his first wife Ivana let rip to the Guardian about the senator for Texas. At the end of a long day in which the ugly war of words between the two presidential hopefuls reached new lows, the younger Trump said that Cruz had ‘zero road ahead’.

‘Truth be told, if Ted Cruz stays in the race he will be doing it for his own selfish reasons and not for the good of the party,’ Eric said.

‘We should be turning our attention to Hillary Clinton and beating the Democrats in November, but instead we will have to keep focusing on a guy who has lost the entire east coast and south of the country, who is three-and-a-half million votes behind, 500 delegates behind and has zero chance of getting the nomination.’

Eric Trump and wife Lara Yunaska at the White House Correspondents Association Dinner.
Eric Trump and wife Lara Yunaska at the White House correspondents association dinner. Photograph: UPI/Barcroft Images

You know that something extraordinary has happened tonight when you hear the Trump team talking about ‘the good of the Republican party’. As a parting shot, I asked Eric whether we could now expect his father to adopt a new tone as he heads into the general election.

He paused, and then he said: ‘I think my father will now start turning his attention to her. It’s time for Hillary.’

A politician’s answer. Are we seeing another American dynasty – Kennedy, Bush, Clinton … Trump – in the making?

Updated

Cruz to address supporters

We’re expecting to hear from Ted Cruz in Indianapolis any moment now. Watch him live here:

Sanders: 'coming together always trumps dividing us up'

Sanders adopts a line from Clinton, about love trumping hate. This sounds an awful lot like a first step to party unity:

We are stronger. And the American people understand that coming together always trumps dividing us up.

Sanders goes on to say that generosity trumps selfishness and “at the end of the day, love always Trumps hatred”.

Updated

We’re already heard from a top architect of the 2008 John McCain campaign, Steve Schmidt, who says it’s “100%” that Trump will be the nominee.

Now here’s a top architect of the 2012 Mitt Romney campaign:

Trump’s next move: West Virginia. The Mountain State votes, along with Nebraska, in one week. Thirty-four Republican delegates awarded on a proportional basis will be at stake. Trump is polling very well there.

Hoosier daddy. Not bad, Post:

Steve Schmidt was a George W Bush adviser and lead strategist on the 2008 John McCain presidential campaign.

He said very early on, when most people were writing Trump off, that Trump could win the Republican nomination.

Now he says he was right:

Here’s the view, meanwhile, from the Democratic political professional side:

Updated

One unavoidable take-away tonight is that voters really, really don’t like Ted Cruz, notes Lucia Graves

Trump has said of Cruz, “everybody hates Ted” when they get to know him. Like many of Trump’s attacks, it’s nasty but there’s truth to it. John Boehner lent further credence to the notion last week when he referred to the senator from Texas as “Lucifer in the flesh” last week.

Now it appears Indiana voters feel the same way as lawmakers: having gotten to know him, they don’t like him too much.

No sooner had the polls closed than it became apparent Trump was going to win again and by a landslide. This after Cruz had been polling relatively well in the state until recently. His dip in the polls, tellingly if you ask Trump, coincides with the time when he started campaigning intensively in the state.

And he did try everything, driving home his conservative bonafides, signing a non-aggression pact with John Kasich, and even declaring a vice presidential pick early to attract attention.

He spent enough money to ensure the voters heard him loud and clear – they just, like so many others before them, didn’t like what they heard one bit.

Updated

Sanders continues his speech in Louisville. It’s his straight stump speech so far, declaring that “now is the time for Wall Street to help the middle class of this country”:

A great nation is not judged by the number of billionaires and nuclear weapons it has. A great nation is judged by how it treats the most vulnerable and weak among us.

No inflection so far referring to the tight race in Indiana or what it might mean, as whatever happens, Sanders is expected to chug through to the final contest in Washington DC on 14 June. A live video feed of the Sanders speech is in a block from 15 minutes ago.

For the good of what party?

With 17.3% reporting, it was an even 50-50 race on the Democratic side.

But now Sanders has pulled ahead by a couple of tenths of a percent.

Anybody’s race.
Anybody’s race. Photograph: Guardian

Follow along here:

*low whistle*

Here’s another sample from conservatives populating the land of #NeverTrump:

Our Principles Pac, the conservative anti-Trump force, holds out hope for a contested convention, in a statement issued to reporters:

“While tonight’s Indiana primary results increased Donald Trump’s delegate count, Trump remains short of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination,” said OPP chair Katie Packer.

A substantial number of delegates remain up for grabs in this highly unpredictable year. In addition, there is more than a month before the California primary – more time for Trump to continue to disqualify himself in the eyes of voters, as he did yet again today spreading absurd tabloid lies about Ted Cruz’s father and the JFK assassination. [...]

We will continue to educate voters about Trump until he, or another candidate, wins the support of a majority of delegates to the Convention.

Sanders addresses supporters

Bernie Sanders is addressing supporters in Louisville, Kentucky. The below live video feed should come online shortly. So far it’s straight stump from Sanders.

Trump to speak at Trump Tower

Donald Trump is scheduled to discuss tonight’s victory at Trump Tower in Manhattan starting at 9pm ET. Ed Pilkington will be on the ground ...

Updated

Donald Trump has beaten Ted Cruz in the Indiana primary, ending the best hope of blocking a presidential nomination the Texas senator has claimed will plunge America into the political “abyss”, write the Guardian’s Ben Jacobs and Dan Roberts:

Despite a day of dire warnings from Trump’s conservative rival, the New York businessman was declared victor by the Associated Press within seconds of polls closing in the Hoosier state.

With the second highest number of delegates left on offer before the Republican party convention, Indiana offered a chance for Cruz to repeat his success in Iowa and Wisconsin by urging midwest voters to reject Trump.

Trump at the Palladium at the Center for Performing Arts in Carmel, Indiana, Monday.
Trump at the Palladium at the Center for Performing Arts in Carmel, Indiana, Monday. Photograph: Aaron P. Bernstein/Reuters

“The country is depending on Indiana,” he warned on Tuesday. “If Indiana does not act, this country could well plunge into the abyss … We are not a proud, boastful, self-centered, mean spirited, hateful, bullying nation.”

But by winning the 30 delegates awarded to Indiana’s statewide winner, Trump now has an easy path to claiming the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to avoid a contested convention in Cleveland and win outright, and is well-positioned even if Cruz pulls off an upset in delegate-rich California next month.

Read our full news coverage here:

Kasich vows to stay the course

The governor John Kasich campaign has released a statement vowing not to let mere results alter the candidate’s steadfast commitment to somehow winning the nomination with 153 delegates (and counting?).

Why drop out? Can’t think of a reason.
Why drop out? Can’t think of a reason. Photograph: Stephen Lam/Reuters

“Tonight’s results are not going to alter Gov. Kasich’s campaign plans,” the statement begins, continuing:

Our strategy has been and continues to be one that involves winning the nomination at an open convention. The comments from Trump, on the verge of winning in Indiana, heighten the differences between Governor Kasich and his positive, inclusive approach and the disrespectful ramblings from Donald Trump.

The statement includes a colorful reference to “the Mad Hatter Gibberish pushed by Trump during the primary,” which Kasich believes “would weaken America.”

Republicans

Updated

So much for a contested convention:

Trump continues to use the moment of his victory to punch Cruz, making sure he finishes the job with his opponent on the canvas:

Big delegate haul for Trump

Trump is picking off district after district, snapping up at least 45 delegates in Indiana and angling for all 57:

Indiana just confirmed everyone’s worst fears, says Guardian US contributor Christopher R Barron.

Indiana is Waterloo for Ted Cruz and the #NeverTrump Forces.

For weeks, the campaign of Senator Ted Cruz and Trump’s opponents circled today on the calendar. Indiana was where they were making their last stand. Like Wisconsin - where Cruz won - Indiana was meant to be friendlier territory for Cruz, somewhere he could focus his time and efforts.

After a huge loss in New York to Donald Trump and devastating losses in the so-called Acela primaries across the mid-Atlantic, it was hoped that Indiana would be the state where Donald Trump was stopped.

That’s not how it worked out. Instead of stopping Trump, the Indiana primary became an electoral graveyard.

The anti-Trump movement poured millions into the state, Cruz fully brought to bear his vaunted ground game, he convinced rival John Kasich to not campaign in the state, he picked Carly Fiorina as his “running mate,” and was even endorsed by Governor Mike Pence.

At the end of the day, none of it mattered. Trump won and he won big. Trump’s big win in Indiana now makes Trump the presumptive Republican nominee.

Updated

Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs is fanboating over the exit results and pulling in the good bits. He notes that Hoosier men went big for Trump while the race was tight among women...

...Trump struggled with educated voters...

... but Trump performed better than usual among relatively affluent voters and not as well among low-income voters (he nevertheless won both groups):

In his moment of victory – like literally at the minute of his definitive victory in the presidential nominating competition – Trump tweets not celebration but slams Cruz:

#winning
#winning Photograph: Tannen Maury/EPA

Updated

Trump projected Indiana winner

An immediate call in Indiana for Trump on the Republican side – and it appears there may be a possibility of a Trump delegate sweep.

Donald Trump is the likely 2016 Republican presidential nominee. That’s not a technical term. It’s still possible it won’t happen. But.

Updated

Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves wonders whether tonight holds any surprises for Bernie Sanders, who is sticking in the race with a fighting spirit.

Hillary Clinton may have moved on to campaign in the general election, but Bernie Sanders isn’t giving up – and he’s hoping Indiana will tell the world tonight that his voters aren’t either.

While Sanders is overwhelmingly predicted to lose, the work and money he’s spending in Indiana suggest his team thinks he can perform better than expected.

The Vermont senator has a number of factors working in his favor tonight, including, crucially, that it’s an open primary, meaning Independents are allowed to vote. The Sanders campaign spent generously in the days and weeks leading up to tonight’s primary and they did it at a time when team Clinton had essentially moved on.

Clinton tellingly spent zero money on advertising in Indiana while Sanders spent $1.5m, and she’s spent minimal time campaigning there. Clinton further signaled her confidence by spending the day leading up to the election in Ohio – a state that has already voted in the primary and is useful to her only in so far as it pertains to the general.

With just under 5% of votes reporting, tonight’s Democratic race is shaping up to be a tight one. And while Clinton has the edge on Sanders thus far, early voting characteristically favors Clinton, whose campaign is better organized.

The math of the primary election may clear, but Sanders’ constituency isn’t done talking yet.

Updated

Indiana projections expected soon

With the closure of the final polling stations in Indiana in about five minutes, we are expected quickly to have at least one projected winner.

Ben Jacobs is in the room with team Cruz, where the senator’s supporters are chanting at the TV:

Updated

Don’t make the mistake of neglecting our results page – we’re at 2.5% reporting now on both sides, from mostly rural precincts, and Clinton and Trump appear to be performing well:

Updated

What will we learn when the last of the Indiana polls close in just 20 minutes?

We haven’t even had time to order pizza yet!

Roger Stone, the former Donald Trump adviser, current Trump ally and longtime Republican bruiser, tweets that CNN’s Jake Tapper, in the spot we linked to earlier, is wrong about Ted Cruz’s father and, by the way, Lee Harvey Oswald did not kill Kennedy:

Ted Cruz for president, down to 2% in betting pools.

Not down by 2%. Down to 2%.

Here are a few good #ffs for snap results analysis:

Forty precincts have now reported on each side – that’s less than 1% reporting. Needless to say that’s not a large enough proportion to base a projection on. But not bad for Trump, it appears:

Visit our comprehensive mapped results page here:

Why would the Associated Press be circulating a video explaining how they might call a race in Indiana immediately as polls close? Hmmm ...

Updated

One precinct has let fly its results early. And Clinton holds a 228-vote lead in Indiana. Count it.

Here’s Nate Cohn with a good reminder of why exit polls can be misleading: they don’t encompass early votes – hundreds of thousands of them, in Indiana’s case tonight:

Updated

Donald Trump is a friend of mine.

– Senator Ted Cruz, 7/18/15

Jim Facklam votes at the Whiting Fire Department in Whiting, Indiana.
Jim Facklam votes at the Whiting Fire Department in Whiting, Indiana. Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images
Voters at the Hamilton Co. Auto Auction in Noblesville, Indiana.
Voters at the Hamilton Co. Auto Auction in Noblesville, Indiana. Photograph: Darron Cummings/AP
A station in Indianapolis, Indiana.
A station in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photograph: Steve C. Mitchell/EPA

Majority of Indiana polls to close

Polling stations in 80 of 92 counties in Indiana are about to close. What’s done is (almost) done.

Update: to be clear: I t appears there is no way that Ted Cruz might leave the race tonight or any night soon: Update: Cruz suspends campaign: “It appears that path [to victory] has been foreclosed.” Appearances are everything!

Correction: this post has been updated to reflect that some results will land before 7pm ET.

Updated

Here is the kind of exit poll tidbit that an eyebrow might be raised at but which on the other hand might mean diddly depending on the reliability of the data which might be nil:

“Many supporters of each candidate wouldn’t consider ultimately voting for the other,” writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:

Michael Strawn, a 52-year-old mortgage banker from Carmel, Indiana, who supports Cruz, told the Guardian: “Donald Trump scares me. He is unpredictable and self-centered.” A lifelong Republican, Strawn said he would have a hard time voting for Trump if he was the nominee. “I know what the worst case is with Hillary. I don’t like it but I can manage. With Trump I just don’t know.”

In contrast, Danny Buechler of Greenfield not only couldn’t imagine voting for Cruz, but he couldn’t imagine voting for anyone besides Trump. The long-bearded biker, who wore a black cowboy hat with “Trump” written in silver, said he had last voted for Richard Nixon in 1968. To him, the Republican frontrunner represented “truth and change”, and Buechler took reassurance in the fact that the mogul “ain’t a politician yet”.

Read the full piece here:

The exit poll temptation

If you like results but don’t like waiting, you’re in luck, because exit poll data is now trickling out. The data have been collected by interviewers outside polling stations across Indiana on behalf of a consortium of media outlets, and the data might shed light on the demographic and ideological breakdowns of today’s electorate, which information then might be extrapolated to judge the candidates’ potential performances, is how it works.

You can root through the data for kernels of potential insight here, but be warned – those kernels might in fact be misleading nonsense, the result of bad voter sampling or inaccurate self-reporting by voters.

Still, it is interesting to contemplate that the proportion of #NeverTrump voters in the Republican race may have been smaller, actually, than the proportion of voters who said they were #NeverCruz:

Read @SteveKornacki for more.

Updated

The campaign's strangest day?

3 May 2016 witnessed some of the most outlandish lines ever to surface in the national political discourse, which is saying something.

Donald Trump started things off by calling into Fox News and giving credence to a months-old story in the National Enquirer – think celebrity alien baby births and John Edwards’ affair – that Ted Cruz’s father, Rafael Cruz Sr., had been captured on camera with Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated president John F Kennedy.

“What was he doing with Lee Harvey Oswald shortly before the death, I mean before the shooting?” Trump said. (There’s no reason apart from the sterling journalistic reputation of the Enquirer, which has endorsed Trump and is published by a friend of Trump’s, to believe the man in the picture in question is indeed Cruz’s father.)

Cruz replied in a midday news conference that snowballed into a full-throated condemnation of Trump, whom Cruz called a “pathological liar” and a “serial philanderer” whose “battles with venereal disease” were not the kind of thing Americans would like their teenagers to contemplate.

Here’s Cruz’s sizzler:

Cruz attacks Trump for linking his father to JFK assassination – video

Trump hit back, saying Cruz was in the last throes of a “desperate” attempt to save his “failing campaign,” accusing him of a “ridiculous outburst” and saying he did not “have the temperament to be president.”

The end. Take it away CNN’s Jake Tapper:

Updated

Visit our Indiana results map

Our comprehensive interactive map-glamorous results page is now live here.

Veterans of this process know that the interactive is a great place to go if you want to compare Trump’s performance in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, say, with his results in the more rural southern part of the state or the industrial strip along the I-80 corridor up north.

Also, there are animated candidates riding scissors lifts and wielding paintbrushes to tag territory where they’re ahead. Check it out:

Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs is in Indianapolis tonight, where he will watch Ted Cruz deliver a speech after the results are in.

From there, Cruz heads west:

Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the Indiana primaries, where Donald Trump is hoping to kick his ankles free of Ted Cruz’s teeth, and Hillary Clinton is hoping to avoid another unseemly Bernie Sanders win.

The stakes on the Republican side tonight cannot be overstated. If Trump wins the 30 delegates that Indiana awards the victor in the state’s popular vote (the winners in each of the state’s nine congressional districts receive three delegates apiece), only a huge upset by Cruz in California next month could stop Trump from obtaining the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

Tonight’s the night that Donald Trump could become the likely 2016 Republican presidential nominee.

It’s raining wins, hallelujah.
It’s raining wins, hallelujah. Photograph: Aaron P. Bernstein/Reuters

Polling averages have Trump up by double digits in the Hoosier state, while Clinton holds a smaller and less extensively surveyed lead over Sanders (with 83 pledged delegates to be awarded on the Democratic side). But Clinton, who holds a prohibitive lead in the delegate race, is already leaving the primary season behind and training her fire on Trump:

Most polling stations in Indiana, which straddles two time zones, close at 6pm ET, with the remainder closing at 7pm ET. In 2012, half the Indiana vote had been reported by 8pm ET, and 95% by 10pm ET, according to the Associated Press.

A very high rate of absentee ballots, which were requested in unusual volume, have been returned in Indiana, NBC News reported.

It was a strange day on the campaign trail, even for the 2016 cycle, with Trump starting off by linking Cruz’s father to the JFK assassination and Cruz trotting out an old Trump quote about venereal disease. We’ll bring you a recap of that action shortly – or you can scroll through today’s Campaign Minute or enjoy Scott Bixby’s daytime live blog.

As usual, we’ll be tracking the results on our interactive maps tool and bringing you the headline returns here as soon as they come in. Do you think Sanders will pull off an upset? Is there any chance of Cruz doing the same? Wherefore John Kasich?

Here’s how the delegate races currently stack up:

Republicans
Democrats

Thank you as always for reading – and don’t forget to join us in the comments!

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