The Phillies have come out of the All-Star break like a house on fire, sweeping the Marlins and pulling within seven games of Miami for the crown of the second-worst record in baseball. Have they turned the corner? Are they a good team now?
No. They remain much more dumpster fire than house on fire. But pointing out that the Phillies are bad at baseball isn’t exactly fresh territory. It’s been heavily-trod ground for most of the past 130-plus years. Instead, let’s try to find some reasons Phillies fans can have hope that things will one day turn around.
Ruben Amaro is on the way out!
Ruben Amaro, Jr, the general manager mastermind who figured out a way to take a $100m World Series champion and, in just seven years, reshape it into a $135m baseball laughing stock, is not long for his job. Andy MacPhail was brought in last month to become team president and, while Amaro has been assured that he will not be fired while the Phillies are still playing games this season, the writing is on the wall – and also hopefully on a Word document draft on MacPhail’s computer that says: “Ruben Amaro, this serves as your termination notice. Please clean out your desk, leave this building and never come back.”
MacPhail has a solid track record in past jobs with the Twins, Cubs and Orioles and, best of all, likely won’t adopt Amaro’s unique two-pronged approach to building a baseball team: ignore all modern forms of player evaluation and pay players vast sums for past performance.
How the Phillies could screw it up: It’s been clear for a good five years now that Ruben Amaro has no business running a baseball team. Yet he wasn’t fired in 2012. He wasn’t fired in 2013. Or 2014. Why would 2015 be any different? It’s a cliche to say that a person who keeps a job against all odds has compromising photos of someone in power, but Amaro really might. (We just know those photos are not of Ryan Howard, as he hasn’t been a person with power in quite some time. Zing!)
The Phillies have some pieces to build around!
Rookie Maikel Franco at age 22 is one of the best young third-basemen in baseball, with 10 home runs and 34 RBI despite only being called up to Philadelphia in mid-May. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera and Freddy Galvis are also 25-and-younger regulars who have earned spots in the lineup. On the pitching staff there’s 24-year old reliever Ken Giles, who has the stuff to be a good major league closer.
How the Phillies could screw it up: Franco is a legit top-tier prospect. Giles is already a good and established reliever. Those other guys? The only reason they’re playing every day is because the Phillies are so bad, the team has no other options. So the only real building blocks the Phillies have are a third baseman and a setup man. Give a little kid two blocks and ask him to build something. See what happens and prepare to not be amazed.
There’s help on the way! Philadelphia’s rotation may be an embarrassment right now, but minor league prospect Aaron Nola could provide some hope for the future. Nola is only 21, but went 10-4 with a 2.39 ERA in Double-A and Triple-A this season. He’s set to make his major league debut on Tuesday. The Phillies are also waiting on Double-A shortstop JP Crawford, who ESPN recently ranked as the No2 prospect in baseball.
How the Phillies could screw it up: This is baseball. Highly-touted prospects are far from sure things – especially at pitcher and shortstop. What if Nola and Crawford don’t pan out? Or what if they both do? Nola, Crawford, Franco and Giles alone don’t make a good team. Scouts across baseball are high on all of those guys, but the Phillies have almost no minor league talent beyond them. Baseball America ranks their farm system as the 21st best in baseball. (I’d say 10th worst, but we’re trying to be positive here.) So even if every one of the Phillies’ prospects meets their projections, the Phillies still won’t have much of a team. Ooof.
The trade deadline is almost here!
So what if the Phillies don’t have a ton of good prospects to rebuild the franchise, they’re about to get them at the trade deadline, right? Sure thing! Despite the Phillies being a disaster since 2013, Amaro has done little to nothing at the trade deadline each year, deciding to hold onto Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and friends because ... honestly, no one really knows. But with MacPhail in place, it’s likely that Hamels and Papelbon and any other veteran assets the Phillies have will be moved for prospects – real prospects – in the next 11 days. Hooray!
How the Phillies could screw it up: What can they really expect for any of their big-name players? Papelbon is a closer who makes $13m a year. Good teams don’t pay relievers $13m a year. They at least don’t give up much to acquire them. Hamels is now 31 and in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career. He’s been crushed in his last two starts, giving up 20 hits and 14 runs in 6.1 innings. Are any contenders going to hand over a package of prized prospects for that? Then there’s Howard. But Amaro has offered to pay Howard’s contract to any team that would take him and still hasn’t had interest. And Chase Utley is still around. Poor Chase Utley. Even if he would accept a trade away from the only team he’s ever played for, he’d fetch almost nothing in return these days. The Phillies hung onto the past for so long that they ruined their chance at a future.
Oh, right. I had said this would be an upbeat column about the Phillies. Sorry. Hey ... how about that Phillie Phanatic, huh? He’s a real hoot.
Quote of the Week
We probably have the best record in baseball in the second half – Jeff Francouer, Phillies outfielder, after hitting a walk-off home run on Sunday to give his team a sweep over the Marlins to open the second half of the season.
Francouer is right. And if the Phillies can win all of their remaining 68 games – and recent trends suggest they will – they’ll finish the regular season with a record of 100-62, good for the fourth-best record in franchise history and just a few games shy of the Cardinals for the No1 seed in the NL playoffs. Maybe the Phillies should stand pat and not trade anyone at the deadline.
“Hey, I’m convinced!” - Ruben Amaro, probably.
Stat of the Week
292 – Aroldis Chapman struck out the 500th batter of his career in Cincinnati’s loss to Cleveland on Sunday. Chapman reached the milestone in just 292 innings - the quickest any pitcher has reached 500 Ks in MLB history. The previous record holder was Yu Darvish, who got to 500 strikeouts in 401 2/3 innings last year. Kerry Wood held the record before Darvish, getting his 500th K in 404 2/3 in 2001.
Chapman, Darvish and Wood all are – or were – great pitchers, at least when healthy, but it’s clear that the modern hitter who doesn’t care about striking out is a major reason why the top three fastest-to-500 in history have all played in the last 15 years. If this trend continues, don’t be surprised to see Chapman lose the record very soon. My guess is next year. Some rookie phenom will make his major league debut against the Mets, it will go to extra innings and ... 500 strikeouts.
This Week’s Horrible Fantasy Team That Crushed Your Team
Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers - 7-for-14, HR, 3 RBI
Yunel Escobar, 3B, Nationals - 6-for-13, HR, 2 RBI
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates - 6-for-13, 2 RBI
Paulo Orlando, OF, Royals - 4-for-11, HR, 3 RBI
Colby Lewis, P, Rangers - 7.1 innings, 1 win, 7 strikeouts, 2.45 ERA
Chad Billingsley, P, Phillies - 14 innings, 1 win, 4 strikeouts, 3.60 ERA
Reader Twitter Question of the Week
@DJGalloEtc does Willie actually like Barry?
— Jordan (@HandsomeCheetah) July 19, 2015
It sure seems like he does. We know that he lets his godson in his house when he’s vulnerable, as we all saw last week when Barry Bonds posted a somewhat creepy selfie he took next to a sleeping Willie Mays.
Barry Bonds took a selfie with Willie Mays while Mays was sleeping… https://t.co/7HI514TjAD pic.twitter.com/GrOEp9BCSK
— Lindsey Adler (@Lahlahlindsey) July 14, 2015
The picture is a good reminder of why Bonds was portrayed so poorly during his career: he was terrible with the media. He didn’t communicate well with the media, so most baseball writers went out of their way to trash the guy, regardless of what he did on the field.
Fast forward to 2015 and Bonds wants to tell his godfather that he loves him. Great! How does he do it? He takes a picture of the guy while he’s asleep and then posts it to Instagram and writes: “I love you and everything that you have done for me.” Oh, Barry. I feel like there might have been a better way to tell an 84-year old person you love him than by posting something to a social media site he doesn’t know exists while he was asleep.
Barry Bonds: Greatest baseball player ever? Maybe. Barry Bonds: Worst communicator ever? Definitely.
Chicago Cubs World Series Odds: On the Rise!
The Cubs opened the second half by winning two of three over the lowly Braves and now play their next 14 games against teams with records nine games below .500 or worse. If the Cubs are going to on a run and make a move up the division standings, now is the time.
With the Cardinals and Pirates on top of the NL Central, imagine if the Cubs heat up and the three best records in baseball come from the same division ... and the second and third-best teams in baseball are forced into the one-game wildcard playoff ... and then none of these teams are eligible for homefield in the World Series because Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Francisco Rodriguez of the Brewers got rocked in an exhibition game on 14 July.
Root for the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. Root for baseball anarchy. Root for the dream of a sensible postseason format in our lifetimes.
A-Rod-ness of the Week
Prior to hitting his 19th home run of the season in the Yankees’ first game back from the break, Alex Rodriguez participated in a non-apology apology bit at the ESPYS.
Most years, sport’s outrage class would have torn into Rodriguez for this appearance. HE’S MAKING LIGHT OF THE VERY SERIOUS SIN OF TAKING STEROIDS. HE IS LAUGHING AT THE GAME! HE HAS NO REMORSE! BAN HIM FOR LIFE! Only this was the ESPYs of Caitlyn Jenner, so no one used their outrage on A-Rod and he took another small step in his redemption tour. What’s next? Maybe we’ll see him pull from the Bonds playbook and take a grinning selfie next to an old, snoring baseball legend. I suggest Derek Jeter.
10 Things I Think We Think I Think
1) Three weeks ago, I wrote that the Cardinals are baseball’s best franchise. They then lost four in a row. One week ago, I wrote that the Pirates are legitimate World Series contenders. They have since lost three in a row. This week, I wrote about the Phillies. Yeah, I think we’re going to have a definite trend of teams that I write about immediately doing a whole mess of losing.
2) The timer used at this year’s Home Run Derby was a huge success and got rave reviews from baseball diehard and casual fans alike. It makes one think that maybe putting a short timer on pitchers and batters in real games could really speed up play and help baseball market itself to a younger hahahahahaha ... no. That’s a preposterous idea. Allowing some All-Star exhibition to have any impact on real games that count is insane. Insane, I tell you!
3) Here is the grounds crew pulling up the tarp in San Diego on Sunday after a rain delay at Petco Park.
Tarp coming off the field right now! 👏🏻⚾️ pic.twitter.com/SP64FpDUAi
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 19, 2015
It was the sixth rain delay in the history of Petco Park. The stadium opened in 2004. They’ve had six rain delays in 12 years. It really helps you put the California drought in perspective. Sure, 38 million people may die of thirst, but at least they will have seen a lot of uninterrupted Padres baseball. You can’t put a price tag on that.
4) There has been some chatter this year that the Dodgers could come to regret paying Clayton Kershaw $32.17m a season due to his down season. After his 8-inning, 0-run, 3-hit, 14-strikeout performance against the first place Nationals on Saturday, Kershaw now has a 2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 174 strikeouts in 131 innings. Ugh. I bet if the Dodgers could do it over again, they wouldn’t offer him a dollar more than an average of $32.16m a year. Take it or leave it, suckwad.
5) Zack Greinke’s scoreless innings streak is now at 43 2/3 innings, meaning he’s potentially just two starts away from breaking Orel Hershiser’s all-time record of 59 consecutive scoreless. I hope he does it because it’s fun to see sports history. On the other hand, if Greinke does break the record, there will always be the guy who pipes up to say: “Aaaaaacccctttuuuuuuaaalllllyyyyy ... Greinke’s scoreless mark deserves an asterisk because in the middle of the streak he gave up a run in the All-Star Game.” I hate the Actually Guy. The Actually Guy is the worst. “Aaaaccctuuuaaalllyyy ... I’m not the worst. That would be cancer.” Shut up, Actually Guy.
6) It might be a little wordy, but I think I found the perfect title for the 2015 Seattle Mariners highlights DVD:
Lloyd McClendon just sacrificed in front of a guy hitting .159. Of course, the guy who bunted was getting .176. The .159 hitter struck out.
— David Schoenfield (@dschoenfield) July 19, 2015
7) Three Mets players – Curtis Granderson, John Mayberry, Jr and Danny Muno – have started an Instagram that is just pictures of teammate Lucas Duda. It’s quite a fun project. Unfortunately, Duda is hitting .135 with 36 strikeouts in his last 26 games. At some point soon, Granderson and friends may have to consider handing their Instagram password over to some Triple-A players.
8) Pete Rose defenders often point out the fact that he never bet on the Reds to lose when he was a manager of the Reds, only to win. “Oh, but that’s not an excuse,” claim those who believe Rose’s sins are unpardonable. “A manager knows that not every game is winnable. Sometimes you have to just admit a game is lost. But when Rose had money on the line, he was likely making decisions for that game alone. Decisions that could have hurt his team – and literally hurt his players – in the long run.” OK. Fine. But if you accept that argument, then you have to admit that extra innings should be banned from baseball along with Pete Rose.
9) The Cardinals and Mets played an extra innings game on Sunday. It finished in 18 innings with the Mets (somehow) the victors. The Cardinals have the best record in baseball. As extra innings began, the Brewers completed their sweep of the Pirates, giving St Louis a five-game lead over Pittsburgh. At the end of the season, it’s likely Sunday’s Mets-Cardinals game will have zero impact on St Louis’ place in the postseason. Yet when the 15th inning rolled around, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny put in one of his starting pitchers, Carlos Martinez. Martinez then pitched to the end of the game – four innings and 72 pitches. After the team got all rested up over the All-Star break, the Cardinals were forced to use two staring pitchers and six relievers for ... what? A game against the friggin’ Mets in mid-July? What was the plan if the game didn’t end in the 18th? Keep Martinez out there? Go to another starter? Just keep playing until everyone’s shoulder explodes? “It’s worth it, guys! This game against the Mets is very important, okay? We must never back down!”
10) The Cardinals want to win the World Series this year, but nothing that happened on Sunday will help them get there. If a pitcher tires out his arm in an 18-inning game in July, he’s not going to be much use to his team in September and October. If a game is tied after nine innings in the regular season, play an extra inning or three. But when that’s over, end it in a tie. Believe it or not, the sport will still live on if there are no more 18-inning games. Baseball will last forever. But individual baseball games should not.
