Even so, things are about to get more interesting.
Where the Chargers can flex muscles, opportunities are starting to unfold.
Start with the media game. It will soon become more important in the Stadium Game, because a large number of voters say they're either undecided about the initiative or have yet to give it attention.
The Chargers have far more media clout than do the initiative's opponents, giving them a better chance of reaching more of these voters.
The team will outspend the plan's opponents on political advertising, and several outlets in San Diego's mainstream media are sure to provide pro-initiative coverage, at length.
Four local TV stations work under parent companies that are NFL broadcasting partners.
Another San Diego TV station, the independent KUSI, was the first to interview Chargers chairman Dean Spanos when stadium issues boiled over last winter. However, in a break from standard practice in mainstream journalism, KUSI first agreed to the Chargers' request that Spanos not be asked about past events.
Pro-Chargers content will dominate both local sports radio stations. Because few listeners care about the Padres, whose game ratings on 1090 AM are dreadful, the Chargers will warrant even more coverage in months ahead. (The Bolts-Padres gap is only widening. Local stations employ three former Chargers players as regular talk-show commentators, with the recent additions of Nick Hardwick and Rich Ohrnberger to 1360 AM. No former Padres hold similar roles, save for a postgame host.)
Bolts game telecasts, which tend to draw solid to good ratings, will provide another outlet for pro-initiative talking points.
In a political campaign, size doesn't matter so much as proportion.
If one side can dominate the messaging, it can make sizable gains with voters.
"There's a lot of really interesting political science that's been done over the years looking at political advertising spending that has basically concluded that it doesn't really matter what's in the ads; as long as you're basically spending about the same amount on both sides, it evens itself out," said Michael Scherer, the Washington Bureau Chief of Time magazine and a guest of KPBS' Washington Week.
"The only time advertising really has a dramatic effect, in terms of moving numbers, is when one side can spend much more."
The football games themselves could be the team's most persuasive tool.
Chargers victories are a mood enhancer for thousands of San Diegans.
Though the 4-12 record last year fuels skepticism of the team's on-field prospects, steep improvement should be expected. Say, at least three more wins.
Understanding that parity is good for profits, the NFL has mastered a system designed to produce 8-8 records. A .500 win rate would be a 100-percent growth rate.
Also, a healthy Philip Rivers points toward a decent record at minimum. The 4-12 performance was an outlier, coming after the Rivers-directed Bolts averaged 9.8 wins per season for 10 years.
Dominating the media narrative and winning football games more often may not be enough to overcome the tall odds that the convadium bid faces. A narrow defeat, though, is better than getting waxed at the ballot box in this quest for $1.15 billion in funding that would come from local hotel taxes. With the team's profitable stadium lease not up until 2020 and the short-term outlook in Los Angeles looking unappetizing, a loss on Nov. 8 may not be Team Spanos' last bite at a San Diego subsidy apple.
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