RIO DE JANEIRO -- China is stepping up efforts to win over South American nations through vaccine diplomacy, dangling a lifeline that pandemic-ravaged countries such as Paraguay, the only South American holdout that maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan, may prove enticed to bite. Although Paraguay does not have diplomatic ties with China, it has been looking into opening direct negotiations with the superpower, if that's what it takes in order to secure more of the COVID-19 vaccine. If such a deal materializes, it seems all but certain that China will leverage the situation to wrangle a realignment of alliances.
-- A desperate government
At the end of February, Paraguay's Foreign Minister Euclides Acevedo revealed on a radio show that the government has been holding internal discussions in order to negotiate access to the Chinese vaccine. "This is an emergency situation, so we will not be bound by diplomatic protocol. The important thing is to obtain the vaccine," Acevedo said.
The Paraguayan government is desperate. Since late January, large shipments of Chinese vaccines have been arriving across the South American continent. But Paraguay has only been able to procure a paltry 4,000 doses of the Russian vaccine and 20,000 doses of the Chinese vaccine; the latter provided by Chile, which itself was offered 8 million doses from China. Paraguay also expects to participate in the COVAX global vaccine-sharing scheme, but is only slated to receive enough for 36,000 doses in the first round for its population of 7 million. According to Paraguay's health ministry, the cumulative number of novel coronavirus infections had reached 168,043 with 3,318 deaths as of March 7.
In the capital Asuncion, protestors have been taking to the streets since March 5 to criticize the government's coronavirus response and the lack of vaccine. According to local media, about 500 demonstrators gathered in front of the official residence of President Mario Abdo Benitez on March 7, demanding his resignation.
-- A "good cat"?
In the mid-19th century, Paraguay lost two-thirds of its population in a failed war against Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Largely dominated by center-right politics in the modern era, Paraguay established diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1957, a bond that is said to have been cemented in their shared experience of being bullied by larger neighbors.
China's diplomatic offensive amid the pandemic, however, has called the strength of this bond into question.
In April last year, the left-leaning opposition party in Paraguay's upper house submitted a draft resolution calling for the creation of a diplomatic relationship with China, arguing that realignment would enable the country to obtain more supplies to combat the coronavirus. The resolution was voted down 25 to 16, but it was still a clear sign that all the masks and medical equipment China supplies to neighboring countries were having a tantalizing effect.
"It doesn't matter whether it's a black cat or white cat -- it's a good cat as long as it catches mice," Acevedo said at one point during the radio program, quoting a phrase associated with the PRC's pragmatic former leader, Deng Xiaoping.
-- China vs Taiwan
After Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, installing an administration which staunchly rejects the "One-China policy," seven countries cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan, lured by the economic incentives put forward in a Chinese diplomatic offensive. Converts included three countries in Central and South America and the Caribbean, an area the United States has long considered to be its own backyard.
This brings the number of countries in the region with diplomatic ties to Taiwan down to nine, including Paraguay, Guatemala and Honduras. Worldwide, 15 countries currently recognize Taiwan's independence, counting the Vatican and Palau.
Taiwan's foreign ministry on Feb. 4 announced that it had reached an agreement with Guyana, a small South American country that doesn't have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, to open a "Taiwan Office." Guyana, however, unilaterally withdrew from the agreement half a day later. The Taiwanese side believes there was pressure from China, which had already agreed in late January to provide Guyana with vaccines. A month after backing out of the Taiwan Office agreement, Guyana received its 20,000 doses, compliments of China.
If Paraguay enters negotiations over the vaccine, it may also very well be pulled into China's gravitational field and compelled to reconsider its relationship with Taiwan.
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