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The Guardian - UK
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Graeme Wearden (until 2.20pm) and Nick Fletcher

Greek borrowing costs rise after IMF reveals bailout split – as it happened

Greek and an EU flags in Athens.
Greek and an EU flags in Athens. Photograph: Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images

Mixed fortunes for European markets

Despite US markets hitting new highs as the Trump rally returned, it was a different picture in Europe. UK markets ended in positive territory, with the FTSE 100 helped by a weaker pound and a strong performance from precious metal miners. Germany’s Dax also moved higher but France was under pressure on concerns about the presidential election, while the latest Greece developments pushed up the country’s bond yields again. The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished up 14.07 points or 0.2% at 7186.22
  • Germany’s Dax rose 0.34% to 11,549.44
  • France’s Cac closed down 0.49% at 4754.47
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 0.17% to 18,662.61
  • Spain’s Ibex ended down 0.28% at 9331.5
  • In Greece, the Athens market added 0.42% to 623.37

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 34 points or 0.17%.

On that note, it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Back with Greece, and Monday’s IMF meeting appears to have reinforced the government’s resolve not to give in to more demands for austerity, reports our correspondent Helena Smith:

The Greek government has long argued that the country has been hostage to the deep differences that exist over fiscal targets between its creditors. In recent months as the rhetoric has crescendoed it is a claim that has been openly used to account for the foot dragging in implementation of reforms.

Now that a split within the IMF itself has also come to light, cadres in the ruling Syriza party are saying it will only strengthen the leftist-led coalition’s determination to stick to its guns and not forge ahead with more painful austerity. The government spokesman’s description of IMF demands as “illogical” is indicative, they say, of Athens now digging in. “There is a lot of behind-the-scenes movement to see where the points of convergence are,” said one. “But to ask us to strangle our economy further and take additional measures once the bailout ends when our [economic] progress has been openly acknowledged is totally absurd.”

Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos
Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos Photograph: Isopix/REX/Shutterstock

Thursday’s Euro working group will be seminal in seeing if a solution can be found to break the deadlock and conclude the review by February 20 when euro area finance ministers next meet in eurogroup session.

Creditors are now saying it is up to the Greek finance ministry to take the initiative with announcement of new reforms, not least further broadening of the personal income tax base by lowering the tax threshold to €6000 – a measure that would bring around 1.5 million Greeks currently surviving on very low wages and pensions into the tax fold. Euclid Tsakalotos, the Greek finance minister, has opposed the measure amid widespread rumour that he will hand in his resignation if forced to rescind.

The circular nature of Greece’s debt crisis is such that even with borrowing costs rocketing and yields on ten-year bonds soaring, the government is still confident that a compromise formula will be found with several leading figures repeating prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ conviction that the review will wrap up sooner rather than later with the IMF ultimately remaining in the programme even if only in an advisory role.

UK markets have closed higher, helped by the weakness in the pound, with the FTSE 100 up 0.2% and the FTSE 250 closing at a new high, of 18,559, up 0.99%. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:

Stock markets are back on the rise, with the FTSE benefitting from a weaker pound, and US markets reaching record highs despite a widening trade deficit.

The FTSE is enjoying a strong recovery today, with the deterioration in the pound helping to boost the index. Once more it is the gold producers heading up the leaderboard, with Randgold and Fresnillo rallying sharply despite today representing an off day for the gold price. Despite the weakness we saw earlier in the week, it is clear that investors see any pullback as an opportunity to get into the Trump rally, with the Dow and Nasdaq hitting a fresh all-time intraday high in early trading.

The pound remained subdued against a resurgent dollar today, despite BoE member Forbes speculating that the MPC should seek to raise rates even with the Brexit uncertainty. Improved inflation data across the world has raised suspicions that we could see the likes of the ECB and BoE tout a more hawkish tone. Today’s comments stand in stark contrast to the accommodative stance preferred across Europe as a means to ward against any adverse economic effects of the Brexit process. The bank could end up choosing between respecting its price stability mandate or providing a supportive policy framework for a downturn that may never come.

Updated

The worries about Greece’s debt problems following the signs of a split among the IMF board members continues to hit the country’s bonds. Yields on its 10 year bonds are at 7.8% while the two year yield is at 10%:

The pound is still lower against a strong dollar - the US currency being boosted by Fed comments suggesting a rate hike before long - but it is well off its lowest levels. Sterling has recovered some lost ground after the news of a vote on a Brexit deal in parliament, as well as the comments from Bank of England policymaker Kirstin Forbes that UK rates may soon need to rise. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:

As the Brexit debate rages on, news that MPs will get a vote on a deal, before the European parliament and covering ‘not only the withdrawal arrangements but also the future relationship with the European Union took the edge off the pound’s decline as the afternoon went on. Sterling was also helped by comments from the Bank of England’s Kristin Forbes, who stated that she believes a rate hike might be need to prevent inflation from getting too unwieldy. This could only erase a small part of the pound’s losses, however, with sterling still down 0.7% against the dollar.

The euro, meanwhile, maintained its half a percent drop against the greenback, spooked by both Draghi’s pro-stimulus comments yesterday and the truly terrifying prospect of President Marine Le Pen. The Le Pen issue meant that, while the FTSE and DAX rose 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, the CAC slipped by 0.4%, the French index finding itself back under 4800 once again.

Meanwhile the FTSE 250 is heading towards a new peak. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:

After weak start European stock markets are slightly more buoyant today, helped in part by a weaker euro and a weaker pound, helping push the DAX and FTSE100 higher on the day, with the FTSE 100 hitting a two week high and the FTSE 250 set to post a new record close, begging the question, are UK stocks becoming a safe haven for European political risk?

IMF report on Greece outdated - Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem

Back with Greece, and the country is doing better than the IMF suggests.

That is the view of Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who said the IMF’s report was outdated due to recent Greek growth, and he was surprised by the harshness of the fund’s comments. He said that there had been some easing of Greece’s debt but more was needed.

But he saw no forgiveness of Greek debt, only the possibility of easier repayment terms.

Dijsselbloem
Dijsselbloem Photograph: Eric Vidal/Reuters

Updated

Dow and Nasdaq reach new peaks

Over on Wall Street, and US markets are on the rise again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit a new record of 20,126, up 74 points, while the Nasdaq Composite is also in uncharted territory again.

Investors have been encouraged by the trade deficit in December coming in better than expected, ignoring a fall in fourth quarter income at General Motors.

Updated

Over in the UK parliament, a concession from the government: Brexit minister David Jones has announced that MPs will get a vote on the final deal to leave the EU before it is concluded.

More at our politics live blog here.

Updated

The comments about a possible rise in interest rates from the Bank of England’s Kirstin Forbes has given some support to the pound.

It has erased some of its losses against the dollar, and is now down 0.67% at $1.2386 having earlier fallen as low as $1.2348 this morning.

And against the euro, sterling has now edged up 0.02% to €1.1597 after dropping to €1.1576.

BoE policymaker: UK interest rates may need to rise soon

Professor Kristin Forbes.

Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes has suggested she is getting closer to voting for a rate rise to stop inflation rising too high.

In a speech in Leeds, she is saying the economy had outperformed gloomy post-referendum expectations and continued to hold up well.
Here’s the key comment from Forbes:

“If the real economy remains solid and the pickup in the nominal data continues, this could soon suggest an increase in Bank Rate.

“It is worth highlighting that an increase in interest rates, however, given today’s extremely low level of Bank Rate, and the substantial amount of monetary stimulus that is already in place through a variety of programs, would still leave a substantial amount of monetary support for the economy”

Forbes had also become the latest economist to raise the question of whether her profession might have been smarter not to factor in any leave vote impact at all for the UK economy in 2016.

Forbes notes how much actual developments in the second half of 2016 matched the Bank’s economic forecasts made in May last year on the basis on a remain vote.

Forbes’ comments come after her colleague on the committee, Andy Haldane, said last month that it was fair to describe economics as being in crisis given a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash.

He described the collapse of Lehman Brothers as the economics profession’s “Michael Fish moment” - a reference to when the BBC weather forecaster predicted in 1987 that the UK would avoid a hurricane that went on to devastate large parts of southern England.

Forbes said in her speech in Leeds - where she is talking about the Bank’s latest outlook in the inflation report - that “there is certainly fodder for criticism”.

“The vast majority of economists and forecasters expected the UK economy to slow immediately after the UK voted to leave the European Union, with some even predicting an outright recession. Most put substantial weight on the evidence that growth, and especially investment, tends to slow sharply in the face of heightened uncertainty. I was on the more optimistic end of the forecasters, but I still expected to see at least some softening.

“But this slowdown has not occurred - and it has now been over 7 months since the June vote...Growth may still slow as higher inflation reduces real incomes, or if negative supply effects related to the UK’s departure from the European Union build over time. Signs of such a slowdown starting soon, however, are as yet few and far between.”

But she, like several City economists of late, was quick to point out that the forecasts made for the UK voting to stay in the EU had turned out to be close to the mark.

Referring to Haldane’s Michael Fish remark, Forbes said:

“You may have heard that UK economic forecasters have recently been less accurate than weathermen. But I will show you that the Bank of England has actually done quite well - that is, if you compare the UK’s recent performance to what was predicted in May based on the assumption that the UK would vote to remain in the European Union...

... The bottom line: the real economy, including the labour market, have performed largely as forecast last spring. Most economic measures (except investment) have matched or slightly outperformed our May expectations based on a Remain vote. The UK economy appears to have been largely resilient to Brexit uncertainty. The main exception is sterling and the nominal data - which indicate sharply higher inflation than expected last spring”

Bank of England forecasts
A chart from Kristin Forbes’ speech Photograph: Bank of England

As for why the economy had proved so resilient to the vote, Forbes listed several possible factors and said the UK had benefited from a “Series of Fortunate Events” in the second half of 2016. Supporting factors included Bank of England action after the vote, including a rate cut, the pound’s depreciation, a stronger global economy, a higher minimum wage and “less negative effects of heightened uncertainty than expected”.
Talking about the Bank’s forecasts for growth to be 2% this year but slow next year, for inflation to rise and for unemployment to edge up, Forbes said for her the key risks to that view were: how sterling’s depreciation affects inflation dynamics, how wages evolve, and how consumersrespond to slower real income growth.

Reuters’ Jamie McGeever points out that US trade deficit actually narrowed last year, as a proportion of the economy - and despite a strengthening dollar.

Here’s some instant reaction to the US trade data (no word from the president yet, I’m afraid...)

US trade deficit hits four-year high.

Donald Trump has made trade a massive issue, so the latest US trade figures are going to be particularly closely watched.

And the headline news is that America’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has hit a four-year high in 2016, at $502.3bn, up from $500.4bn in 2015.

That included a $347bn trade deficit with China, and a $146bn deficit with the European Union.

But... the figures also show that America’s trade deficit narrowed in December, to $44.3bn, thanks to a rise in exports.

With the euro still wallowing below $1.07, analysts are blaming political uncertainty in Europe.

Analysts at Rabobank say the French presidential election is to blame.

“Although opinion polls suggest that (Far-right National Front Leader Marine) Le Pen will not win the second round of the French presidential election in May, polls have wrongly picked the winners of both socialist and republican primaries.”

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says yesterday’s dovish comments from ECB president Draghi aren’t helping the euro either.

Draghi’s comments yesterday about the need for stimulus in the Eurozone despite rising inflation, alongside the damage the currency would suffer if Marine Le Pen becomes the next French president, are dragging it lower.

Overall if seems that the pound is struggling the most, however, dipping by 0.2% against the euro having been 0.3% up just after the bell.

One point... Although the rise in Greece’s 10-year bond yields is significant, it doesn’t actually affect its borrowing costs yet (because the country is in a bailout programme).

As Dan Davies of Frontline Analysts reminds me... the short-dated two-year Treasury bonds are a better measure of the current borrowing costs (They’ve spiked even more sharply, to around 10%)

Ten-year bond yields show how much confidence ‘the market’ has in a country’s long-term credit-worthiness. If investors are demanding much higher yields to hold the debt (yields rise when prices fall), then they’re more worried.

Athens-based journalist Omaira Gill tweets:

The Greek government has now weighed in on the ongoing row over its bailout.

Spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos said the government hopes for a ‘positive conclusion’ to the long-running (and bogged down) review of the programme.

He also insisted that Athens will not swallow additional austerity measures, and still hopes to be included in the eurozone’s stimulus programme soon.

Tzanakopoulos says:

“The government is aspiring for a deal that will lead to the country’s inclusion in the (ECB’s) quantitative easing programme.

The government’s position is clear and it has been expressed categorically ... our aim is to not yield to illogical demands by the International Monetary Fund, which insists on legislating precautionary (austerity) measures after the programme ends.”

UK Treasury: Difficult decisions on government spending

The UK Treasury has responded to today’s warning that Britain’s tax burden will soon hit a three-decade high:

“The government is committed to repairing the public finances and living within our means so that we can build an economy that works for all.

That has required some difficult decisions on spending, but we are determined to deliver efficient public services which provide maximum value for every pound of taxpayers’ money.”

As former Treasury head honcho Rupert Harrison points out, this means even more austerity....

Greek borrowing costs rise as bailout worries grow

Back to Greece...and the country’s benchmark borrowing costs have spiked to their highest level of this year.

The yield, or interest rate, on Greek 10-year bonds has jumped to 8% this morning - after the IMF revealed its board is split over how much austerity the country should swallow.

That’s the highest level since last October, and puts Greek debt firmly in the ‘danger zone’.

The yield on Greek 10-year bonds
The yield on Greek 10-year bonds Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The IMF’s repeated warnings that Greece’s debt burden is unsustainable, and its persistent reluctance to join the latest bailout, is worrying investors.

Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments, has a good take:

“The European debt crisis never went away – a fix was implemented and the can was kicked down the road but the problem came back in 2016, particularly in the case of Italy and Greece

In the meantime, the fractures in these and other countries have grown as the economies have shrunk or barely grown with the growth of extremist, protectionist parties which are a threat to the liberal values.

2017 has a number of elections including in France, Netherlands and Germany which represent significant risks for the Eurozone. .

In particular Greece is renegotiating its bailout at a time when the economy continues to struggle and living standards have plummeted and the country is in the frontline of a migration crisis. The Troika of Greek Creditors, the IMF, EU and ECB face a very difficult situation. They do not want to write off but Greece is in no position to pay. There is a rift even within the IMF about fiscal targets set for Greece. Some within the IMF have called them unsustainable, seriously questioning the country’s ability to generate and sustain a surplus and long term growth.”

Greece’s two-year bonds are also spiralling higher this morning, showing renewed concerns over its bailout.

Here’s more details of the IFS’s grim assessment of the UK economy:

Uk tax burden to hit 30-year high

Newsflash: Britain’s tax burden is set to hit its highest level in three decades, to help fix the black hole in the UK public finances

That’s according to the well-respected Institute for Fiscal Studies, which has just published its new ‘Green budget’.

It shows that Britain’s tax take is on track to hit 37% of national income by 2019-2020, a level not seen since 1986.

Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, gives a very gloomy assessment of the UK economy:

“For all the focus on Brexit the public finances in the next few years look set to be defined by the spending cuts announced by George Osborne. Cuts to day-to-day public service spending are due to accelerate while the tax burden continues to rise. Even so the new chancellor may not find it all that easy to meet his target of eliminating the budget deficit in the next parliament.

Even on central forecasts that is going to require extending austerity towards the mid-2020s. If the economy does less well than hoped then we may see yet another set of fiscal rules consigned to the dustbin.”

Here’s our news story:

And here’s more details:

PwC: UK could be fastest growing G7 economy

In yesterday’s liveblog, we reported how British businesses are already suffering a negative impact from the Brexit vote.

Today’s news is more encouraging -- the UK could be the fastest growing economy between now and 2050, according to new research from PwC.

But there’s a big “if” -- Britain needs to secure successful trade deals to ease the disruption from Brexit, and keep pace with fast-growing developing markets.

My colleague Katie Allen explains:

PwC sets out the UK’s prospects in its latest report into how the world economy will look in 2050. Using models that analyse population trends, investment, education and technological progress, PwC economists expect six of the seven largest economies by 2050 will be emerging markets, led by China.

They see the UK economy remaining in the top 10, slipping down one spot from ninth place now to 10th in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, which adjusts for price differences between countries to provide a measure of the volume of goods and services produced by an economy.

France is forecast to drop out of the top 10, to 12th place in 2050, while Germanyis forecast to fall from fifth place to ninth. Mexico is the only newcomer to the top 10 in 2050.

More details of the report are here.

Updated

French jitters in the bond market

French bonds are coming under more pressure this morning too.

This selloff has pushed the gap between Paris and Berlin’s respective borrowing costs to a four-year high.

The cost of insuring French bonds against default is also rising; traders have heard Marine Le Pen pledge to take the country out of the euro.

Updated

Kit Juckes, currency expert at Societe Generale, expects political worries to gnaw at the euro over the next few months.

We expect the euro/US dollar exchange rate to reach the low for the year sometime in the next three months, during the French political election campaign, at a level close to parity. If Marine Le Pen doesn’t win the election, we expect a very significant Euro rebound through the second half of 2017 as valuations and capital flows dominate.

But with M Fillon showing no signs of leaving the fray, M Bayrou still lurking in the shadows, and M Hamon still making overtures to M Melenchon, the only candidate confident of making it to the second round is “Marine”.

The US dollar is enjoying a little surge this morning, sending the pound and euro reeling in its wake.

Sterling has dropped almost a whole cent to $1.237, a two-week low.

The euro is also taking a bath, down 0.7% at $1.067.

Neil Wilson of ETX Capital has a theory:

Traders in the City seem to have woken up to the prospect of the Fed tightening interest rates quicker than they’d thought, after Philly Fed president Patrick Harker said he would support hiking rates in March. That’s thrown the cat among the doves a bit as the last FOMC meeting suggested the Fed was not likely to raise rates until the summer. The rally in safe haven assets seems to have stalled and traders are piling back into long dollar positions.

Dublin MEP Nessa Childers is pleased that most IMF board members believe Greece’s fiscal targets should be cut, to just 1.5 % of GDP.

Halifax: House prices fell in January

Newsflash: UK house prices fell (yes, fell) by 0.9% month-on-month in January, according to new figures from the Halifax.

Economists had expected prices to remain flat.

On an annual basis, prices were 5.9% higher, with the average house costing just over £220,000.

Greek bonds hit by bailout worries

Greece’s government debt is falling in value this morning.

The yield, or interest rates, on 10-year Greek bonds has jumped to 8%, from 7.85% last night. That means its price has fallen, with investors calculating that there’s a greater risk that Athens defaults.

Short-term Greek debt is also under real pressure, sending yields spiking higher:

The divisions among the IMF’s board over Greece’s bailout highlight its long-running row with Europe, points out the Financial Times:

The fund did not reveal which board members had objected. But the public statement illustrates the sensitivity surrounding the continuing Greek bailout programme. It also points to one of the main political challenges facing Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director who has battled with European leaders over the Greek debt issue for almost two years.

The IMF has been the target of criticism since first joining the EU-led bailout of Greece in 2010, particularly over the strict fiscal targets it set early on. Economists have also blamed the IMF and its European partners for not doing enough to reduce Greece’s long-term debt load.

But the IMF has for the past two years insisted that Germany and other eurozone members needed to do more to tackle that debt. By labelling Greece’s public debt unsustainable it has also made its own financial contribution to a bailout impossible under its own rules unless Athens’ debt is either restructured or forgiven in part.

The IMF has also made its traditional call for Greece to receive fresh debt relief.

Today’s statement says:

Most Directors considered that, despite Greece’s enormous sacrifices and European partners’ generous support, further relief may well be required to restore debt sustainability.

They stressed the need to calibrate such relief on realistic assumptions about Greece’s ability to generate sustained surpluses and long term growth. Directors underlined, however, that debt relief needs to be complemented with strong policy implementation to restore growth and sustainability.

IMF board split over Greek bailout

The logo and name of the International Monetary Fund.

A split has opened up at the International Monetary Fund over the terms of Greece’s bailout, raising new doubts over its participation in the rescue plan.

In its latest annual review of the Greek economy, the IMF revealed that its board members are in disagreement over whether Athens should enforce even more austerity to satisfy its lenders.

“Most” of the 24-strong group agreed that Greece was on track to achieve a surplus of 1.5% of GDP, and should not make further cuts.

However, another group on the board argued that Athens needed to tighten further to push its surplus up to 3.5% of GDP, the level agreed in its last bailout.

In a rare statement, the IMF says that:

Most Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal while some Directors had different views on the fiscal path and debt sustainability.....

Most Directors agreed that Greece does not require further fiscal consolidation at this time, given the impressive adjustment to date which is expected to bring the medium-term primary fiscal surplus to around 1½ percent of GDP, while some Directors favored a surplus of 3½ percent of GDP by 2018.

Here’s the statement:

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation, and Discusses Ex Post Evaluation of Greece’s 2012 Extended Fund Facility

IMF board meetings are usually kept confidential, so we wouldn’t normally know whether decisions are unanimous or not.

The unusual decision to reveal the split highlights the divisions over Greece within the IMF, which hasn’t joined the country’s third bailout, agreed in August 2015.

Last month, a leaked report showed that the IMF believes Greece’s debt pile is on track to swell to almost 300% of GDP by 2060 -- a profoundly unsustainable level.

The agenda: Political tensions weigh on the markets

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Political tensions are rising in Europe, and exerting pressure on the financial markets.

The possibility of a far-right win in France’s presidential election this spring has pushed French bonds to their weakest level in 18 months, widening the gap with ‘safe-haven’ Germany.

If the eurozone was totally secure, French debt would be as safe as Germany’s - but right now, investors seem anxious.

An opinion poll showing that Angela Merkel’s CDU party had fallen to second place, behind the Social Democrats, has also caused jitters.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

European markets got off to a poor start to the week yesterday, slipping to seven week lows, with investors once again reluctant to try their luck against a backdrop of rising political risk, on both sides of the Atlantic.

While US President Trump has extended his one man crusade to the US court system, after his travel ban was overturned, any notion of a more stable political outlook in Europe took another twist over the weekend, as a narrowing of opinion polls in Germany, cast doubt on Angela Merkel remaining as Chancellor later this year, while Marine Le Pen launched her bid for the French Presidency as well.

In the UK, the Institute for Fiscal Studies will publish its ‘Green Budget’, outlining the challenges facing chancellor Philip Hammond as he draws up new tax and spending plans (the real budget is on 8th March).

The Halifax building society is releasing its latest house price figure at 8.30am GMT.

On the corporate front, oil giant BP, travel firm FirstGroup and model maker Hornby are reporting results.

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