The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Thailand's GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.5%, supported by the government's stimulus measures.
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update released on Wednesday, the uptick reflects the emergency fiscal measures and is supported by robust technology-related exports and investment.
The lender also raised its 2027 growth forecast for Thailand by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2%.
In its latest outlook, the IMF upgraded the growth forecast for Vietnam by 0.4 percentage points for 2026, rising to 7.5% thanks to robust technology exports and strong domestic demand.
The report maintained its growth forecasts for Malaysia and Indonesia at 4.7% and 5.0%, respectively.
However, the IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%.
Globally, the group projects economic growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, down from the average of 3.5% recorded in 2024-2025 and broadly unchanged on a cumulative basis from its April projections.
The modest slowdown reflects the impact of the war in the Middle East, partly offset by stronger demand driven by the global technology cycle, particularly investment related to artificial intelligence (AI) and its wider adoption. The effects vary significantly depending on countries' exposure to the conflict and their position in the technology value chain, noted the report.
Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, chief economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, wrote on his personal Facebook page on Thursday the global economy continues to be driven by an AI capital expenditure cycle, benefiting exports and economic growth across several regional economies, particularly Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia.
Although Thailand's exports grew 17% year-on-year during the first five months of the year, the country has benefited relatively little from the AI boom because Thailand's technology-related industries remain concentrated in computers, hard disk drives (HDDs) and electronics.
Computers and HDDs account for only 3.3% of the value-added weighting in Thailand's Manufacturing Production Index. The electronics industry contributes only about 10% of the manufacturing sector's added value, despite recording solid export growth.
"Under this scenario, the added value and employment generated for the Thai economy remain relatively limited. Even if these sectors continue to expand at an extraordinary pace, they are still too small to drive the country's economy," Mr Pipat wrote.
As a result, Thailand needs to accelerate the transformation of its traditional industries to increase the value addition of its exports. Greater automation combined with workforce training would help strengthen the country's long-term competitiveness, he said.
