CHICAGO — The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations across Illinois has begun to bend downward after weeks of sharp growth, state data shows, but public health advocates have expressed unease that infections from the Thanksgiving holiday may undo any improvements.
As of Sunday night — the most recent data available — 5,849 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized across the state. That number marked the seventh daily drop in hospitalizations in nine days, collectively amounting to a 5% decrease from a high of 6,175 on Nov. 20.
The same downward trend is starting to be seen, though not as strongly, for the subset of patients in intensive care units — where there are deeper concerns about hospitals becoming overwhelmed.
State officials and public health advocates have acknowledged potential improvements in the numbers.
Gov. J.B. Pritzker last week noted a "glimmer of hope" in some pandemic metrics after the state spent last month tightening restrictions, capped with Tier 3 mitigations. But they also said it takes time for mitigations to curb the spread of infection and it was too early to tell if the infection curve was actually bending down. Overall case numbers can be affected by a variety of factors, such as a rush of people seeking pre-holiday COVID-19 tests.
Hospitalization figures are a more stable metric, though still not a perfect measure. Dr. Vineet Arora, a University of Chicago professor of medicine, said some people may have put off seeking hospital treatment until the holiday passed, which could affect the state numbers in coming days.
Then there's the question of Thanksgiving celebrations. Health officials and advocates pleaded with people to cancel large gatherings but worry that even more modest get-togethers would be enough to spark a boost in infections.
If so, the ripple effect from that boost wouldn't be seen in hospitalization data until a week or two later, and perhaps longer, as the virus travels from more healthy people who don't need hospital treatment to more vulnerable people more likely to wind up in intensive care.
That's why public health advocates are preaching for those who attended gatherings to quarantine themselves. That includes the group Arora helps lead, the Illinois Medical Professionals Action Collaborative Team.
"I think many people in our group are bracing for what this week will show," Arora said Monday. "I think the jury is out. We just don't know."
