Sandra Ramirez watched footage of immigration officers cracking down on migrants over the past year, a sight that solidified her belief that her 2024 vote for Donald Trump was a profound error.
"There are a lot of people who are being harassed for the color of their skin, and that’s not right," said Ramirez, who had broken from her Democrat-voting family to cast a ballot for Trump. She now states unequivocally, "I’ll never go Republican again."
The president made significant inroads with Latino voters like Ramirez during the 2024 elections, securing support that helped propel him to a second term in the White House.
As Republicans now look ahead to midterms this fall and the 2028 presidential elections, a critical question looms: can they retain this key demographic, or will the administration's sweeping immigration crackdown and an economy grappling with high prices alienate Latino voters?
Early indicators suggest a potential shift. Recent polling from the Pew Research Center shows a rapid decline in support for Trump among this crucial electorate.
While Latino voters have historically leaned Democratic, the 2024 election saw a notable move towards Trump. Although a majority still supported Democrat Kamala Harris for president, Trump achieved substantial gains, with 43% of Latino voters nationally backing him, up from 35% in the 2020 presidential election.
This shift was partly attributed to concerns about the economy.
Upon returning to office, Trump pledged a robust crackdown on immigration, a promise that led to arrest sweeps, frequently targeting Latino migrants in homes, workplaces, and schools.
An AP-NORC poll indicates that over half of Latino adults report knowing someone affected by the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement.
More than a year into Trump’s second term, polling suggests a significant drop in support for the president among Latinos who voted for him in 2024, though a majority still express approval. According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in April, support for the president fell among non-Latino voters from 95% to 79% between February of last year and April of 2026.
However, among Latino voters who cast their ballot for Trump, the drop-off was more dramatic: 66% approved of his job performance in April compared with 93% at the beginning of his second term.
This national decline could prove pivotal in closely contested elections in swing counties such as Maricopa County, Arizona.
As the nation's largest battleground county, encompassing Phoenix and its suburbs, Maricopa is home to a substantial Latino population, with one-third of its residents identifying as Latino and one in four being an immigrant, according to the Latino Data Hub at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Arizona, which also saw a slight increase in Latino support for Trump in 2024, has long been a flashpoint in the immigration debate, marked by events like Sheriff Joe Arpaio's high-profile raids and, later, large influxes of migrants during the Biden administration.
In the predominantly Latino neighborhood of South Phoenix, opinions on Trump reflect deep divisions. Albert Rodriguez, a Phoenix tattoo artist, once supported Trump but now regrets his 2024 vote after witnessing enforcement operations in cities like Chicago, Minneapolis, and Los Angeles.
He noted that while the president promised to target criminal immigrants, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have instead been "hitting the paleta man," referring to ordinary people trying to earn a living. "Big time, I regret it," Rodriguez stated.
Conversely, Phoenix resident Ronnie Martinez, an Army veteran, supports Trump's efforts to curb crossings at the southern border. "The border is only a hop, skip and a jump to our south. And I don’t want illegal alien criminals coming from Guatemala, Venezuela, Central America," he said.
While he disliked images of ICE arresting people in front of their children, he expressed sympathy for ICE officers, believing they were doing their best in difficult situations, and blamed Democratic officials for not cooperating with enforcement.
Martinez also cited economic initiatives, such as the removal of taxes on tips and overtime, as reasons for his continued support. Guadalupe Alaffa, another Phoenix resident, attributed Trump's immigration crackdown to President Joe Biden's policies, asserting, "He left that damn border wide open."
The growing influence of Latino voters has significantly eroded the Republican Party’s decades-long dominance in Arizona, positioning the state at the heart of congressional and presidential elections. Both of Arizona’s senators are now Democrats, along with the top three state officials.
For Democrats like Governor Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, and Attorney General Kris Mayes, all elected in 2022, winning back some of the Latinos who shifted to Trump will be crucial for their re-election prospects.
Democrats in Maricopa County have benefited from over a decade of political organizing among Latinos, mobilizing against hard-line immigration enforcement.
This activism was spurred by events such as the Republican-controlled Legislature’s 2010 passage of SB1070, a state law requiring police to check the immigration status of suspected undocumented individuals. Around the same time, Sheriff Arpaio gained national prominence on the right through immigration sweeps in largely Latino neighborhoods.
Some activists view the current nationwide crackdown on immigrants as an extension of what Latinos in Arizona endured under Arpaio.
"We were the lab where they implemented a lot of this with Sheriff Joe and now it’s all over the United States," said Salvador Reza, a longtime Phoenix activist advocating for day laborers’ rights.
For over two decades, Arpaio was repeatedly elected despite his department facing accusations of racially profiling Latino drivers and conducting sweeps in Latino neighborhoods. Deputies often stopped residents for traffic violations, turning noncitizens over to ICE.
In 2013, a federal judge ruled his office had illegally profiled and detained Latinos, and a 2011 Justice Department report found widespread discrimination. After losing reelection in 2016, Arpaio was convicted of criminal contempt for defying court orders, only to be later pardoned by Trump.
The Republican Party risks losing some of the Latino support Trump previously garnered, according to former Republican Governor Jan Brewer, who signed the controversial 2010 bill. She pointed to economic concerns as a potential reason for the decline.
"With the inflation and the cost of living and the gasoline and the wars, I don’t know if they can afford to be a Trump Republican," Brewer commented. Earl Wilcox, a longtime activist and Phoenix restaurant owner, believes that between affordability issues and immigration enforcement, Latino support for Trump is indeed waning.
Wilcox’s restaurant hosted Biden in 2024 when he launched an initiative to rally Latino support for the Democratic ticket. "I don’t think the Republican Party will have the support it did the second time around," Wilcox said, adding, "and I think it started with the raids."
