If you want to understand how close the rivalry is between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France, look no further than the following stat: across the last four editions of the race, more than 328 hours of racing, less than 90 seconds separate their cumulative times – 1:25, to be exact.
The scales, as it stands, fall in Pogačar’s favour, but Vingegaard is out to change that.
On the eve of their fifth duel, the Dane sat inside a stuffy side room of his team hotel. The press conference was laid out for around 50 journalists, but more than 150 turned up, wedged shoulder-to-shoulder at against the wall at the back, listening intently as Vingegaard spoke in calm, hushed tones.
What’s his plan to beat Pogačar? “I’m not going to tell you,” he smiled back, “or anyone in here, besides my team. We obviously have a plan, like we normally do, but we can’t tell the media.”
This year, for the first time since 2022, the two favourites enter the Tour at full fitness. There are no broken wrists, as Pogačar had in 2023, and no Itzulia Basque Country crash, which put Vingegaard in intensive care last spring. Just being on the start list in 2024 was a victory in itself, the Dane said at the time. This summer, he says, “I’m stronger than ever”.
“It has taken me almost a year to get back to the same as it was prior to my crash,” Vingegaard continued. “Being in bed for two weeks when crashing, you lose a lot of muscle. We tried to regain that, and we succeeded.”
Sat beside him, the towering figure of team-mate Matteo Jorgenson concurred. “He’s huge,” the American quipped, triggering a ripple of laughter around the room.
Vingegaard’s bulk-up is all part of Visma-Lease a Bike’s plan to match Pogačar’s explosivity on the climbs. The difference between the pair last year was more than six minutes, a convincing win for the Slovenian. Vingegaard’s hopeful it will be closer this time round.
“Of course, last year I was also on a very high level in the Tour de France, but it was in a different way; I had a lot less muscles, but I was also a lot lighter. I’m more heavy now than I was last year, but it’s muscle, and we know it gives a lot more power as well. I can say that I’m on the highest level that I’ve ever been, and then we can see if it’s enough or not.”
Despite their close rivalry, there’s no sign of hostility between Vingegaard and Pogačar. In fact, during his press conference inside Lille’s Opéra theatre on Thursday evening, Pogačar complimented Vingegaard as “the best climber in the world over the last few years”.
What did Vingegaard make of that? “That’s a very nice compliment from Tadej. Tadej is a nice guy,” he said, but the Dane sees it differently. “I think we saw in [Critérium du] Dauphiné that he was better than me on the longer climbs, so I don’t know if I would agree, at least how it was in Dauphiné.”
Pogačar won the overall and three stages at that race – a small psychological blow in his last meeting with Vingegaard before the Tour. The bookies now have him as the overwhelming favourite for the yellow jersey. Visma-Lease a Bike don’t care much for the odds.
“If we are sitting here and saying Tadej is unbeatable, then we better go home,” said the team's sports director Grischa Niermann. Vingegaard echoed the same sentiment: "If we were afraid of Tadej, we wouldn’t be here."
To beat Pogačar, Visma-Lease a Bike will have to identify and unravel the world champion's flaws. They’ve done it before – remember the Col du Granon in 2022, and the Col de la Loze in 2023? – but, like Vingegaard claims himself to be, Pogačar also appears stronger than ever, perhaps even more so than any rider in history.
Asked what Vingegaard sees as Pogačar's weaknesses, his last answer is as elusive as his first. “In recent years, he hasn’t really had many weaknesses, I would say,” the Dane said. “And also, if he has any, I wouldn’t sit here and tell him, because then they know. That’s cards we will keep for ourselves.”
