When it comes to beating Tadej Pogačar in the Tour de France, Visma-Lease a Bike and Jonas Vingegaard's steadily rising optimism could hardly go unnoticed by Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates-XRG.
But management at the leader's squad says that if Visma want to try to make the running in the Alps like they did in the Mont Ventoux, they are not overly troubled, given the final result.
As Joxean Fernández Matxin, mastermind behind all three of Pogačar's Tour victories to date as well as many of his other wins, tells Cyclingnews, at this point in the game, the objective is to defend the yellow.
"It's only normal that Jonas Vingegaard has to try to attack," Matxin said on Wednesday. "He's over four minutes behind, so if he wants to win the Tour de France, he has no choice.
"The situation is the same in the Alps as it was before. He has to take that risk and take another step up if he wants Tadej to suffer."
Despite his terrible experience on the Col de la Loze in 2023, Pogačar did not have any particular reasons to fear the ascent, Matxin insisted. As he pointed out, the Tour has already tackled two out of three climbs where Pogačar had a bad experience in the past - the Ventoux and the Hautacam, with the Loze still to come - and on both of them in this year's race, he did well. "That's 66% so far," he said, "so that's a good percentage."
"I don't know what Vingegaard's condition is like - I only know about Tadej. And all I know is that he is better than in the Dauphiné. Not by a lot, it's true because the Dauphiné is the big preparation race for the Tour, so you have to be in good shape, but certainly by a little. He's definitely at one of the best moments in his career."
Much has been made of the fact that Pogačar had managed to break the Ventoux ascent record of 21 years standing. But Matxin pointed to Vingegaard as being the main rider responsible for the speed of Tuesday's ascent, and said that rather than being a sign of Pogačar being ahead of the rest, it was symptomatic of 'new cycling'.
"Tadej was on his wheel all the way up, being drafted, and it was only in the last few metres that he came round him. There were four riders in front. It was a comfortable situation for us, and it meant the rivals needed to attack.
"All Tadej had to do was follow. Jonas set the pace."
It has been four long years since Pogačar and Vingegaard began dominating the top two spots in the sport, a record for just two riders to remain in control of the highest places on GC in the Tour. But Matxin warned against assuming that this meant they were guaranteed to continue in the same lofty positions for so long in the future.
"This rivalry between Vingegaard and Pogačar, it's true, it makes them both better riders. But when Egan Bernal came on the scene in 2019, they all said he was going to win five more Tours de France and look what happened.
"It's equally possible that somebody new comes out of nowhere and manages to beat them both."
For now, though, overall victory in the 2025 Tour looks set to go one of two ways, with Pogačar having the upper hand and Vingegaard set to push him as hard as he can. As a squad, though, UAE were notably less prominent than Visma-Lease a Bike in the Ventoux, something Matxin says simply shows the Dutch team will be ultra-aggressive in the stages to come. And under those circumstances, Pogačar's strategy as leader is equally clear.
"Seriously, I expect them to attack again, of course, absolutely. At the moment, the key thing for us is not to lose control, and if Visma takes responsibility for the race - that's OK, and if they attack, attack, attack… It's OK.
"Tadej's best option is to defend, for us to cover the breaks the same as we did in other days, and stay calm and stay with the best rivals of each particular moment. In the case of this year's Tour, that is Jonas."
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