Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell has been on record for saying fixing his team this offseason could be a quick fix, however, there are several hurdles in the way that makes fans think otherwise. Whether that’s fixing the cap situation or paying Yannick Ngakoue, fans have their doubts about Caldwell’s ability to make things work but those are easy fixes that I could see being resolved.
However, there is another hurdle that could be an even bigger threat to Caldwell’s future in Jacksonville that many seem to be overlooking: the team’s history at tight end.
To put it simply, the Jags have lacked star power at the position for almost a decade and the last time they’ve gotten noteworthy production there was 2012 when Marcedes Lewis hauled in 52 passes for 540 yards and four touchdowns. Two years prior he put together the best season of his career (and was named a Pro Bowler), racking up 58 catches for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns.
For the Jags, that lack of production isn’t a good thing in an era where having sound play at tight end is pivotal. That’s exactly why I listed the position as the Jags’ second-biggest need this offseason, and clearly, they will need to address it with a solid option in the coming months.
A look at the notable TEs on the roster
When looking at who will be returning, the Jags certainly have some interesting players on their team but clearly there isn’t a No. 1 guy at the position. Both of the most intriguing options in James O’Shaughnessy and Josh Oliver will be coming off seasons in which they finished on injured reserve for an ACL tear and back injury, respectively.
In O’Shaughnessy’s case, he really built a strong rapport with rookie Gardner Minshew in 2019, however, we all know that a player typically doesn’t produce well in the season that follows the type of injury he had. That said, he’d likely be more of a threat in 2021 than the upcoming season if he’s productive again.
Oliver, on the other hand, missed much of training camp with a hamstring injury and didn’t take the field until Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, he was placed on IR after Week 11’s game against the Indianapolis Colts after being brought down awkwardly on a five-yard reception from quarterback Nick Foles. He finished the season with just three receptions for 15 yards, however, many didn’t expect a strong season from him anyway simply because rookie tight ends typically take a while to develop.
All of the aforementioned reasons are why neither Oliver or O’Shaughnessy will likely be counted on to be the Jags’ No. 1 tight end options, neither should they be — at least not for 2020. Another option that should be ruled out for significant production at the position is the draft, which we’ve already discussed with Oliver and the history of rookie tight ends.
Free agency is probably the answer
When considering all of the facts that have been laid out, it’s looking like the Jags will be hoping for a starting-caliber tight end in free agency, where there are some rather intriguing options. The three names we’ve previously mentioned on this site are Indy’s Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry of the Los Angeles Chargers and Austin Hooper of the Atlanta Falcons.
When looking at bringing in any of the three individuals, there are some pros and cons that could come with signing them. The most obvious for Henry is his health. He was limited to just 12 games in 2019 and missed all of 2018 with an ACL injury.
For a team that has a terrible history with tight end injuries and has been burned in free agency with unhealthy gambles, it’s hard to imagine Caldwell putting his faith in Henry this offseason. However, if there is one small reason Henry could be signed by the Jags it’s the simple fact that he could come at a discounted rate. Still, I’d say the gamble there may be one Caldwell isn’t willing to take, especially after saying he wants to be “smart” with the team’s approach this offseason.
For me, that leaves Ebron and Hooper as the Jags’ top best options.
When looking at Hooper’s career, he’s been quite productive and will be coming off a career-high of 75 catches for 787 yards and six touchdowns. Another tidbit worth pointing out (courtesy of ESPN) is the fact that only five tight ends have more catches than him since he was drafted (2014) — those players being Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jimmy Graham, and Kyle Rudolph.
If he hits the market (which feels like a 60% to 70% chance), he’ll probably exceed the league’s top tight end contract in terms of annual pay. For the Jags, that might be a steep price to pay, even with the possibility to free up $35 million to $46 million soon. However, Caldwell may be intrigued by the résumé Hooper has built with his former boss, Thomas Dimitroff, over in Atlanta. For this reason, and a better health record, I think it’s more likely that he’d prefer Hooper over Henry but possibly not over Ebron, which brings me to my next topic.
Ebron is a player the Jags are very familiar with due to his time with their division rivals in the Colts. While with them, he put together the best season of his career in 2018, racking up 66 receptions, 750 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Last year, unfortunately, didn’t go nearly as well with him registering only 375 yards and three touchdowns. He eventually ended the season on IR, had season-ending ankle surgery, and the Colts eventually came out to say they were going to likely move on.
With him being the most probable to hit the market of the names we’ve mentioned, the Jags could be intrigued. However, the status of his ankle will be something they would have to investigate. They also might want someone who offers more as a blocker. Then again, if they are looking for a pure receiver, then Ebron might be their guy.
So what could a top tier TE cost on the market and who is the best option?
Per Spotrac, Hooper is projected to cost the most of the trio we’ve mentioned, with a projected contract of five years for $50 million. I’d estimate that would include roughly over $20 million guaranteed when looking at tight end salaries.
Henry’s contract is projected to be slightly less: a four-year deal worth $35.6 million. That may get him $12 million to $18 million guaranteed by my guess but his injury past makes it hard to pinpoint an exact figure.
Ebron’s deal is projected to be the cheapest: a four-year deal worth nearly $30 million. That’s a deal that is similar to Trey Burton’s in terms of structure, who got $18 million guaranteed in 2018 from the Chicago Bears.
In my eyes, the Jags should shoot for the healthier options because of their luck with injured tight ends. The last thing they need is their No. 1 to go down in the regular season, so from that standpoint, Hooper and Ebron should be their two main options on the market.
Fans shouldn’t be shocked if Hooper starts a bidding war — something the Jags may not be up for. In that case, Ebron feels like the most likely possibility, then Hooper, then Henry but ultimately time will tell if any of the three are truly an option.
