Jared Goff has improved in each of the three years he’s been in the NFL, helping lead the Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl this past season. He’s made the Pro Bowl twice, was an MVP candidate for 10 weeks in 2018 and has looked every bit like a franchise quarterback.
And for the first time in his career, he’s eligible for a contract extension. Having put in three years of work, Goff can now sign a new contract with the Rams. To be clear, he’s still under contract for one more year and has a fifth-year option in 2020, but Los Angeles can lock him up before his rookie deal expires.
The question now is whether they should. With two years of control, should the Rams get ahead of the ever-ballooning quarterback market by signing Goff now? They don’t seem to be in a rush to do that with both Les Snead and Sean McVay indicating as much, but it’ll definitely be a conversation throughout the summer. While it would be wise to wait, even at the risk of his value increasing, the Rams can be unpredictable sometimes.
So let’s say they do extend Goff this year. What might his contract look like? Will he top Jimmy Garoppolo’s five-year, $137.5 million extension from last year? Certainly. Will the Rams go the short-term, fully-guaranteed route of Kirk Cousins and the Vikings? Highly unlikely. Might Goff target Matt Ryan’s five-year, $150 million deal from 2018? Absolutely.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN projected potential contract extensions for a number of quarterbacks in 2019 and this is what he came up with for Goff: Five years, $155 million with $54 million guaranteed at signing. Barnwell writes that the Rams would use a similar structure with Goff as they did with Brandin Cooks, giving him a smaller signing bonus to limit his cap hit in the first year.
With Goff, the structure would be the same, but the dollar figures would be higher. The Rams could keep his 2019 cap figure low by offering a $6 million signing bonus and a $3 million base salary, which would keep his 2019 charge modest at $8.8 million. L.A. also would guarantee Goff’s option bonus for 2020 at $35 million and pay him an additional $6 million roster bonus on the day that option guarantees. Throw in a $4 million base salary for 2020 and we’re looking at $54 million over two seasons for him. The structure of the deal would make it difficult for the Rams to get rid of Goff before 2022 at the earliest, but it’s pretty clear they’re all-in with him as their star passer.
It’s hard to argue with Barnwell’s logic and projection. Aaron Rodgers is the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL at $33.5 million per year. Ryan is second with an annual salary of $30 million. Goff won’t top Rodgers at this point in his career, but he absolutely could next year if he puts together an All-Pro-type season in 2019.
Regardless of how high Goff’s salary goes, one thing’s certain: He’s going to get more than the likes of Garoppolo, Derek Carr and Drew, who all make between $25-$27.5 million. Depending on who signs when – Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott could all shake things up – Goff is most likely going to get at least $29 million per year.
Waiting a year might cost the Rams more money in the long run, but it’ll prevent them from any buyer’s remorse in the event that Goff struggles in 2019. We’ll just have to wait and see how risky Snead, Tony Pastoors and Kevin Demoff are feeling.
