In the weeks since Americans began practicing social distancing measures, public officials and health experts have turned to coronavirus prediction models for guidance about when normal life can resume.
Models aiming to predict when parts of the country will reach their peak number of COVID-19 cases _ and how many deaths and infections will occur in the time leading up to the peak _ have been published by researchers and universities across the country. White House officials have referenced prediction models in their response to the outbreak, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cites nine models on its website for clues to when the outbreak will slow.
But the projections of many of the models have changed numerous times since health officials began citing them, causing confusion about the future of COVID-19 and how reliable models are as tools. And predictions are likely to change in Texas, which has begun allowing businesses to reopen _ creating the potential for a second wave of infections.
Health experts say the models are extremely complex and shouldn't be taken at face value. Here's what you need to know:
