IBD 50 Stocks To Watch: Deckers Resists As Shoe Stocks Slip On Nike Warning


Deckers Outdoor, Monday's IBD 50 Stock To Watch, has climbed back onto the IBD 50 list, and is advancing toward a buy point in a shallow base.

Shoe stocks continue to be strong performers this year. As an industry, the 10-stock group has advanced almost 42% since Dec. 31, despite a pullback started in mid-August. In addition, the industry received a heads-up from brokerage BTIG, which downgraded Nike based on Covid-related disruptions to the company's supply chain.

Crocs, boosted by its appeal to health care workers hyperbusy treating and preventing Covid-infections, has gained 121% so far this year. Skechers has climbed 31%. Deckers is up more than 45%.

Outdoor and fitness trends driven by pandemic restrictions have helped fuel the group. That has helped to compensate for loss of school and work-fashion related sales. Navigating the pandemic's complex supply chain issues has, in many cases, divided winners from losers.

BTIG's warning flag on Nike went up after channel checks showed Covid-related factory shutdowns in Vietnam have caused "severe supply channel disruptions" since the company's prior report on the matter in July.

Nikkei Asia reported Monday that Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's southern commercial hub, is experiencing the highest coronavirus death rates in the region.

Most shoe stocks tracked Nike's loss on Monday, including a dive of more than 4% by Crocs. Deckers ran counter to the group, holding modestly higher in late-afternoon trade. The stock advanced in the prior two sessions.

Deckers, Ranks No. 2 Among Shoe Stocks

Deckers broke out of a six-week flat base in late June. It rose almost 26%, then traded sideways for a few weeks. That produced a follow-on opportunity called a three-weeks-tight pattern.

A follow-on pattern is a place on a chart where investors are advised not to open new positions in a stock. But if they are already shareholders, it is a good place to add to a current winning position at lower risk.

In this case, the point was moot, because the stock backed out of the pattern and dropped to a test of support at its 50-day and 10-week moving average.

Deckers — whose brand include Ugg and Teva — retook both lines on Friday. It is now forming a flat base with a buy point at 444.58.

With a best-possible Composite Rating from IBD, Deckers ranks No. 2 among shoe stocks — just behind Crocs and just ahead of Rocky Brands, according to the IBD Stock Checkup.

Deckers received a handful of analyst price target hikes, ranging from 475 to 540, following its July 29 second-quarter report on July 29. Shares on Monday traded 14% below the lower target, and 29% below the upper target.

Please follow Alan R. Elliott on Twitter @IBD_Aelliott

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