Ian Bremmer — president and founder of Eurasia Group, a top global political-risk research and consulting firm — says the top geopolitical risk for 2026 is the "U.S. Political Revolution," with President Trump "so committed to and so capable of changing the political system."
Why it matters: Eurasia Group's annual "Top Risks" report — out Monday, 48 hours after Trump shook the world by snatching Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro — isolates the "biggest threats to the trajectories of nations, industries and institutions," to help leaders and investors prepare for the year.
"The United States is itself unwinding its own global order," says Bremmer, also president and founder of GZERO Media.
- "The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution. In our lifetimes, we have never witnessed an American president so committed to and so capable of changing the political system and, accordingly, the United States' role in the world."
Other risks: The report says Europe's center is faltering ... water is being weaponized as a resource for countries and businesses ... and U.S. attacks on clean energy endanger the nation's AI lead, giving China a potential advantage in post-carbon energy production.
- That's all happening amid the AI boom, which "represents the greatest opportunity and danger humanity has ever created, and with next to no governance, alignment, or coordination," write Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group's chair.
The rest of the Top 10: 2. Overpowered (electric stack) ... 3. Donroe Doctrine ... 4. Europe under siege ... 5. Russia's second front (hybrid war between Russia and NATO) ... 6. State capitalism with American characteristics ("the most economically interventionist administration since the New Deal").
- 7. China's deflation trap ... 8. AI eats its users ... 9. Zombie USMCA (U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement) ... and 10. The water weapon (a tool for non-state actors exploiting state weakness. What was a humanitarian crisis is becoming a national security threat).
The bottom line: "2026 is a tipping point year," the report begins.
