The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has revised upward its nuclear power projections, signaling an entirely shifted momentum for the sector. The decision marks the fifth consecutive upward revision since 2021, when forecasts began to rebound following a “lost decade” triggered by the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
“The IAEA’s steadily rising annual projections underscore a growing global consensus: nuclear power is indispensable for achieving clean, reliable and sustainable energy for all,” Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told delegates at the agency’s annual general conference in Vienna.
The 69th gathering in Vienna this week is flying high on revived optimism for atomic energy. Global capacity stood at 377 gigawatts electric (GW(e)) in 2024, with the IAEA’s high-case scenario seeing nearly 1,000 GW(e) by 2050 – a quarter of it coming from small modular reactors.
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In the 2020s, governments have shifted to nuclear power not only as a low-carbon baseload option but as a hedge against energy insecurity. Financial institutions have also moved to adjust to the new environment, with the World Bank lifting its ban on funding nuclear energy projects in emerging markets in June.
For the United States, the stakes are exceptionally high. Its 94 reactors generate about one-fifth of the nation’s electricity, yet electricity demand is projected to double by 2050 as artificial intelligence, data centers, and electrification of transport accelerate power consumption.
“We’re moving to a place, and we’re not there yet, to no longer use Russian enriched uranium,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at the conference, according to Bloomberg. He added that both large-scale plants and small modular reactors would drive “rapid growth in uranium consumption in the U.S.” and stressed the need for much larger domestic inventories.
President Donald Trump had already proposed a federal uranium reserve during his first term in 2020, seeking $150 million to buy directly from U.S. miners. Congress only funded part of that plan, though Joe Biden’s administration has continued the effort.
In 2022, Energy Fuels (AMEX:UUUU) and Australia-based Peninsula Energy (OTCPK: PENMF) received contracts to supply uranium concentrates to the Department of Energy. Other domestic firms with notable uranium operations include Ur-Energy Inc. (AMEX:URG), enCore Energy Corp (NASDAQ:EU), and Centrus Energy Corp (AMEX:LEU).
Still, America lags its peers. According to IAEA data, U.S. utilities hold only around 14 months’ worth of uranium, compared with 2.5 years of supply in the European Union and more than a decade’s worth in China. A shortfall risks leaving U.S. nuclear operators exposed to geopolitical shocks.
Thus, a path forward will require a mix of public and private capital. Wright pointed to new enrichment projects by Centrus in Ohio and ventures backed by investors like Peter Thiel as evidence of momentum. Still, he cautioned that building secure uranium reserves will be critical as the world enters what the IAEA sees as a multi-decade nuclear expansion.
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