Buyer's remorse is hitting House Republicans over their mid-cycle redistricting war — a strategy meant to protect their majority that's now deeply in danger of backfiring.
Why it matters: What began as an effort to create more GOP-controlled seats — and avoid a Democratic takeover that would weaken President Trump — now could be a wash, or even add to Democrats' edge.
- At Trump's request, Republicans kicked off the unusual mid-decade redistricting push in Texas. But that effort triggered counter-moves in Democrat-led California and Virginia, where voters on Tuesday approved a new map that could leave the GOP with just one seat, down from five.
- "It's not for me to say ... because really, it wasn't my decision," NRCC chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who's tasked with protecting the GOP's House majority, told Axios when asked if the strategy was worth it.
Others were more blunt.
- "I wish none of this had happened," said California Rep. Kevin Kiley, a former Republican who became an independent last month but still caucuses with the GOP.
The big picture: Republicans privately have expressed skepticism about the aggressive redistricting strategy for months amid increasing pressure from Trump, who's said he fears a Democrat-led House would hand him his third impeachment.
- But now, some lawmakers are publicly saying the blowback may outweigh the gains.
- "I think it is a mistake in hindsight," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Axios, "They thought they could just do Texas and nobody else is gonna respond?"
- "We started a war, and you've got to play chess, think three or four moves ahead," he added.
- "I don't think it's favorable for anybody in America, redistricting," Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said. "It's a race to the bottom."
Kiley, whose district became significantly bluer under California's new maps, said: "I wish that cooler heads had prevailed, and we'd be able to reach some sort of truce on this before it snowballed into what it's become."
- Kiley has been sounding the alarm for months on the dangers of mid-cycle redistricting, and pleaded with his colleagues to take up legislation to ban it.
- "This has created a lot of needless chaos," he said, but "maybe there's a chance to come together and say, 'Enough is enough.' "
Reality check: Republicans are hoping that Virginia's Supreme Court will invalidate Tuesday's vote. But overturning a constitutional amendment that's just been ratified by voters won't be easy.
- On Wednesday, a lower state court judge threw out Tuesday's election results. But that Republican-appointed judge previously had been overruled by the state Supreme Court, and Virginia's attorney general quickly appealed to the high court again on Wednesday.
- Neither party is guaranteed to win the seats these new maps put in play across seven states.
- In an election expected to test voters' attitudes about Trump's handling of the economy, the Iran war and other issues, voters' views on the redistricting derby also could be a factor.
What's next: All eyes will be on Florida, where state lawmakers could draw a new map to give Republicans up to five seats. Not all Florida Republicans are on board, however.
- "I feel very confident that we could draw two new districts ... three, if we're feeling particularly froggy," Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) said. "I do have some concerns about five," as some have proposed.
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) has been warning about slipping GOP support among Latinos — a concern being echoed among some Republicans in Texas.
- Texas' new map partly relies on Latinos turning out for Republicans as enthusiastically as they did in 2024, and any redrawing of Florida's could as well.
- "I like my lines," Salazar said when asked if she supports the redistricting push in Florida.
- "I can't control this at all," Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) told Axios. "Some people have expressed concerns that if you attempt to draw five, you could draw up a lot of [GOP] seats that might become vulnerable. These are the realities of when you draw lines."
Zoom out: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Axios he wasn't concerned about a new Florida map backfiring, adding that he supports Florida moving forward with redistricting.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) shot back: "Trump and Republicans launched this gerrymandering war, and we've made clear as Democrats that we're going to finish it."
