Everyone has a theory on why Rory McIlroy hasn’t managed to get over the line at The Masters. Some believe it's the pressure of finally completing the Career Grand Slam, becoming just the sixth golfer in history to do so, and others believe it's due to issues with his preparation or pre-tournament schedule in the run up to arriving at Augusta National Golf Club.
Well, after doing some in-depth research, I believe I have stumbled across a significant scoring issue that could be holding Rory back from taking the Green Jacket...
Why Has Rory McIlroy Not Won The Masters?
Of course, luck plays a part. The last time he was genuinely in contention at Augusta National was 2018, when he played in the final group alongside Patrick Reed. That year, he actually made fewer bogeys or worse than Reed and managed to keep a double-bogey off the scorecard. However, Reed made 24 birdies or better compared with his 17.
Naturally, there is some year-to-year variation, but I’ve looked back at every one of his scorecards since he first competed in The Masters in 2009. To me, it seems fairly clear what the problem is: he makes too many mistakes relative to each year’s winner and double-bogeys are a problem.
McIlroy has played in 16 Masters Tournaments and made at least one double or worse in 12 of those. So, he makes a double or worse at Augusta 75% of the time.
What about the winners? Only six of the last 26 Masters victors had a double-bogey on their scorecard. So, of the last 26 people to land the title, only 23% of them made a double-bogey en route to claiming the Green Jacket.
Three of those happened in the last three years. Scottie Scheffler made double on the 10th hole (round two) in 2024, and also did so on the 72nd hole in 2022 when the tournament was already wrapped up. Jon Rahm made a double on his very first hole in 2023 – the first time a winner opened with a double-bogey and went on to take the title on Sunday.
In short, you don’t tend to win The Masters if you make a double-bogey. That's typically the case across the four men's majors, as only 37% of Major Champions had a double-bogey on their scorecard since the turn of the millennium.
From 2009 to 2023, Rory McIlroy made 15 Masters appearances - averaging 11.2 bogeys or worse per tournament. The winners in the same time period averaged 8.3 – almost three fewer.
His performance in 2024 very much played into this theory, making 13 bogeys on his way to a T22 finish - which is almost two bogeys worse than his average at this event.
Making birdies or better has never been a problem for McIlroy. In fact, from 2013 to 2023 (when making a cut) his average was 17.1, as compared to the last ten winners’ average of 19.8.
In 2024, he made just ten birdies. Not off-setting the number of bogeys is never going to be enough to get the job done around Augusta National, but based on his average I wouldn't expect that to continue into 2025.
McIlroy more often than not makes enough birdies or better to win The Masters, but he needs to find a way to reduce his mistakes. Saving somewhere between 0.5 and 0.75 shots a round could be enough to land him the Career Grand Slam. At the top level, the margins are so fine.
