SINCE its inception in the 1940s, the Faslane naval base has been controversial among local communities and across Scotland.
There has been longstanding concern about reports of accidents at the base. There are also apprehensions the base could become a target in the event of nuclear conflict.
In fact, as the UK’s only nuclear weapons base, Faslane and the adjacent Coulport warhead storage depot are among the highest-value military targets in Europe in the case of a nuclear exchange targeting military facilities.
While many strategic military facilities are located in highly remote areas to avoid civilian casualties in the case of an attack, these bases are only roughly 40 kilometres from Glasgow and surrounded by other population centres such as Greenock and Helensburgh.
In an effort to add to the existing literature illustrating the risks posed by nuclear weapons facilities, I decided to draw from my background in aerodynamics research to study the humanitarian cost that would be incurred by an attack on the nuclear weapons bases in Scotland.
This research uses modelling techniques pioneered by Professor Sébastien Philippe of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and software developed by Ivan Stepanov to simulate both the blast and radiological effects of a nuclear strike on the base.
Both the effect of the initial blast and the fallout dispersed from two 100-kiloton ground-burst strikes on Coulport’s storage bunkers were simulated across 100 historical weather conditions.
In each computational simulation the short-term effects, including the blast pressure, thermal radiation and prompt radiation, were mapped based on the distance from the blast.
The fallout effects were then calculated using a tool called HYSPLIT, software distributed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is used to model atmospheric particle dispersion.
This simulates how a plume of particles representing the fallout in the mushroom cloud is scattered by the wind and settles to ground level.
Both the long and short-term effects were mapped onto population density data to assess both the immediate casualties in the blast radius and the long-term casualties due to radiation induced cancers. A protection factor was also applied to account for those sheltering indoors.
The total predicted fatalities ranged from 1603 to 138,827 people, with an average of 22,798 people. This wide variation is due to the strong influence of wind on the dispersion of fallout.
For instance, winds blowing to the west or north result in far fewer casualties, due to the much sparser populations in these directions.
By contrast, winds blowing to the east or southeast were found to disperse significant fallout over major population centres such as Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Initial blast effects accounted for only a small proportion of casualties in most simulations, with the vast majority being due to fallout exposure.
In some simulations, fallout carrying dangerous doses of radiation were even spread as far as Aberdeen, Newcastle and the Isle of Man.
I also examined the potential effects on nearby critical infrastructure. This includes nearby nuclear energy sites, freshwater sources, airports, seaports and power stations.
In a significant proportion of simulations one or more of these sites received dangerous doses of radiation.
Fallout dispersed on these key facilities contaminate them, necessitating evacuation. Disruption to these critical facilities and supply chains would have downstream effects on industrial, agricultural, medical and transport facilities that would likely cause additional deaths beyond those estimated by the weapon-effects model.
Contamination of food and agricultural areas could lead to radiological risks lasting many decades.
By examining the damaging humanitarian consequences of nuclear attacks, this work illustrates how they can extend far beyond what many people would imagine due to fallout scattering.
The findings also illustrate some of the risks military facilities such as the Faslane naval base pose to local populations, especially when built so close to urban areas and critical civil infrastructure.
Hugh Irving is a material science researcher at University College Dublin
