AFTER a solid few weeks of beaming sunshine, the heavens opened over Hamilton on the second May bank holiday, just as campaigning was due to get into full swing in the last full week before a key by-election.
And what I would say from the off is that predicting the result of this by-election is a bit like trying to predict what the weather is going to do in the next hour right now. The political environment is more turbulent than it has ever seemed in my lifetime.
I was able to have a bit of a nosey as First Minister John Swinney joined with SNP candidate Katy Loudon for a door-knocking session but, I’ll not lie, the rain made the task somewhat challenging. Not many people were answering their doors, but it told me that the SNP are stopping at nothing to try and make sure people back them at the polls on June 5.
Why? Well one conversation I heard the FM having with a constituent commendably tending to her plants in dreich conditions detailed the depressing backdrop all politicians are up against, which is largely of their own doing I should add.
She said she had struggled to keep up with who was Prime Minister, never mind whether there was a by-election that required yet another trip to the ballot box. Three General Elections in less than a decade alongside a Holyrood one and council elections, you can hardly blame her. Asked who she might lend her vote to, she said she had “lost track of it all”.
It shows that even just getting people to engage with politics is a battle now, never mind encouraging them to give you their vote over another party. The woman later chased them for a selfie, so perhaps they had an impact.
The pair seemed to engage in lengthy conversations with people, with one resident telling them that Labour “were a joke” and offering her support to the SNP.
Labour don’t seem to be helping themselves, having picked a candidate who doesn’t seem to want to appear in debates or answer questions. It likely would’ve been their seat to lose really eight months ago, but their hopes of adding to their Holyrood tally now would appear to be fading.
What the public had to say
Speaking to people in Regent Shopping Centre earlier in the day, I picked up a very mixed picture, but what was telling is that people who were lending their vote to the SNP or Labour were fairly core voters who are never really going to go any other way. One woman said she had always voted Labour, as had her family, and that’s just the way it will always be. A fair few people told me they're voting SNP because they want independence. Simple as.
But another man said he wanted to give Labour more of a chance, despite some slip-ups over the Winter Fuel Payment, for example.
Then in between there was a man who was sick of politicians and had voted for Reform in a postal vote, while a smattering of others said they wouldn’t be voting because they didn’t know who to vote for. Either they felt no one spoke for them or they hadn’t really received enough information or spotted enough activism to be able to vote faithfully.
If anyone has a Magic 8 ball to make sense of all of that and give us a prediction, do get in touch.
What we can say is that this is anyone’s game and the SNP know it. John Swinney admitted it was going to be a tight contest to journalists, and Loudon told me after the campaigning session she had been picking up support for the SNP, Labour and Reform over the last few weeks.
What I suppose it all suggests is if you’ve always been devoted to one party, you’re throwing your arms up in the air and running back home. If you haven’t, you’re either staying away, not risking ties with anyone, or you’re taking a punt on someone new.
Reform will no doubt be grabbing the popcorn, because no matter where they finish this is likely to go well for them. But for the SNP and Labour, a nail-biter is certainly on the cards.
