If you’re one of the millions of Americans receiving Social Security benefits, you’re probably wondering how much your check will go up next year. While the official 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) won’t be announced until later in October, I wondered if I could get ChatGPT to analyze data and make a prediction as to what that amount might be.
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How the COLA Is Calculated
First, I asked ChatGPT to explain how the COLA is calculated. It explained that every year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) adjusts benefits to keep up with inflation. The change is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) — specifically, the average CPI-W from July through September compared with the same months in the previous year, ChatGPT noted.
When prices rise, so does the COLA. When inflation cools, the increase shrinks — or in rare cases, disappears entirely (like 2009, 2010 and 2015).
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What Experts Are Expecting for 2026
ChatGPT drew on data from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), one of the nation’s most closely watched watchdog groups for retirees, which is currently projecting about a 2.7% COLA increase. ChatGPT said that estimate is based on the most recent inflation reports showing prices creeping up again, particularly in housing, insurance and utilities — indeed, the inflation rate is closer to 3% than it has been in some time.
However, several new factors could nudge that figure closer to 3% by the time the final numbers are in, the AI explained.
Why Tariffs and Policies Could Push It Higher
The biggest factor could be President Donald Trump’s tariffs — taxes on imported goods — that are already adding to everyday costs for consumers. ChatGPT drew on a variety of economic analyses that show an increase in the inflation rate of anywhere between 0.75% and a full percentage point in the near term as a result of tariffs.
If the Trump administration continues expanding tariffs as Trump has signaled he plans to do, everyday items from electronics to groceries could continue to see modest price hikes, directly influencing the CPI-W — and, in turn, hopefully, the Social Security COLA.
Inflation Creeping Back Toward 3%
After falling sharply from its 2022 peak, inflation has inched back up, hovering near 3% in recent months. ChatGPT shared that economists from respected institutes like Deloitte and TD Economics expect price pressures to stay “warmer than average” through 2026 due to tariffs, higher energy costs and ongoing global supply constraints.
If those predictions hold, the COLA could end up slightly above TSCL’s estimate — somewhere between 2.8% and 3.1%, depending on how the economy responds and how quickly the Federal Reserve acts to keep inflation in check.
What That Means for Retirees
A 3% COLA is good news for retirees struggling to keep pace with rising living expenses, but ChatGPT warned that it’s not a cure-all. Even with annual adjustments, Social Security benefits have lost about 36% of their purchasing power since 2000, according to TSCL data, the AI said, because many senior expenses — such as healthcare and housing — have risen faster than the general inflation rate.
While it’s too early to know the exact figure, many experts agree that the 2026 Social Security COLA will likely fall in the 2.7% to 3% range, reflecting both rising inflation and tariff pressures.
If you’re living on a fixed income, it’s worth budgeting with a modest 3% increase in mind — and keeping an eye on inflation trends throughout 2025, since July through September data will ultimately set the final number.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: I Asked ChatGPT To Predict the 2026 Social Security COLA: Here’s Its Answer
