After the Dallas Cowboys’ lost to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, their playoff odds dropped to around 1%, according to most postseason projections. That number sparked a natural question: If the Cowboys aren’t officially eliminated, what would actually need to happen for them to make the NFL Playoffs?
I did what I always do when I'm stumped — ask ChatGPT. This is the kind of problem AI is surprisingly good at solving. Because all predictions and opinions aside, playoff races are about conditional logic. Who has to win, who has to lose and how tiebreakers come into play. So I asked ChatGPT to map out the exact scenario keeping Dallas technically alive.
ChatGPT: What needs to happen for Cowboys to make the playoffs
Late-season playoff math is messy. It involves multiple teams, overlapping schedules, division standings, conference records and tiebreaker rules. It's a mashup that goes beyond my human logic, but I know AI tools like ChatGPT excel at organizing those moving parts into clear, step-by-step outcomes. And, they are not predicting what will happen, chatbots are explaining what could still happen.
Here’s the path it laid out for the Cowboys:
- Step 1: The Cowboys have to win out. There’s no flexibility here. Dallas must win every remaining regular-season game. One more loss would eliminate them immediately. The Cowboys face a very tough opponent this Sunday agains the 10-4 Chargers, but they should be able to take care of the Commanders and Giants in the final two games.
- Step 2: The NFC East needs late-season chaos. Dallas’ clearest remaining path still runs through the division. For that door to open, the Eagles would need to lose multiple games down the stretch. The Eagles could lose to the Bills on Dec. 26, but it's not likely that they'd lose twice to the Commanders before and after that game. If Philadelphia closes strong, the Cowboys are out regardless of what they do.
- Step 3: The wild-card route is even narrower. If the division doesn’t break their way, the Cowboys would need help across the NFC. Multiple teams currently ahead of them in the wild-card race would have to lose games they’re favored to win — not just once, but repeatedly.
Even then, Dallas would still need tiebreakers to fall in its favor, including conference record and head-to-head results.
So why isn’t the number zero?
The number isn't zero because every step above is technically possible. Playoff probability models don’t factor in how realistic a scenario feels, just whether it is still exists. This means that as long as Dallas can win out and enough teams stumble, the Cowboys remain mathematically alive.
That’s how you end up with a 1% chance instead of outright elimination.
Bottom line
The Cowboys are pretty much eliminated at this point, but there's a very, very small chance they could make it into the NFL Playoffs. No, asking ChatGPT doesn’t make the Cowboys’ path more likely, but it does make what they have to do, clearer. The playoff door is still open, but barely, and it requires a near-perfect finish.
TL;DR: The Cowboys are still alive, but there’s no margin for error left.
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