Asking which industries will be affected the most by artificial intelligence (AI) in the coming years is much like someone in the 1980s asking which industries are going to be affected the most by computer chips and software.
In the 1980s, it was possible to see that computers were going to revolutionise retailing and medicine, but no one forecast the advent of Amazon or Taobao. Predicting the future influence of AI could be even harder, given the exponential nature of change in an era of unprecedented connectivity.
What is clear is that AI and its associated technologies will continue to advance. In Southeast Asia alone, the adoption of AI technologies stood at 14% or industries in 2018, a marked increase from 8% in the previous year. Organisations will turn to this technology to plug the skills gap created by the digital transformation of traditional industries. This is set against the backdrop of a potential talent deficit of 47 million workers across Asia Pacific by 2030.
As AI becomes mainstream, many more general uses, known as artificial general intelligence (AGI) all emerge. There will be fewer tasks that humans can perform more efficiently or economically than machines. The unique economic value of humans will be restricted to special cases such as psychological therapy, entertainment and arts or roles that require human engagement or interaction to deliver value.
However, AI will generally not take over the human workforce all at once. Instead, it will start by prompting businesses to reorganise their structures to best use the strengths AI has to offer. Some parts of people's jobs will be reallocated to AI, giving way to the creation of new roles and requiring humans to upskill themselves accordingly.
For instance, AI will first take on more routine accounting work such as calculations and back-end processes, similar to intelligent adaptive Excel macros, while allowing accountants to handle strategic decision-making and customer interaction. Over time, AGI will take over the latter roles and by then, only a handful of humans will be needed to oversee the running of an organisation's entire finance function.
MISSION-CRITICAL THINKING
When this happens, we would be living in the reality of the hyper-intelligent workplace, where humans will simply provide mission-critical thinking, with the intuitive skill sets of AI and robots used to deliver increased productivity.
AI will not instantaneously eliminate jobs or job functions. In biological laboratory testing, for example, equipment that is already computerised will become more automated and intuitive. Lab robots will start bridging the gaps between the equipment -- be it carrying materials from one machine to the other, or keeping each device informed about respective test subjects, parameters and results.
This weeds out the role of a lab technician gradually, with a robot system instead taking verbal instructions directly from the scientist in charge of the lab. Eventually, the scientist's role will mainly be to rubber-stamp the AI's suggestions, knowing that what was required from the AI has been effectively executed.
This is not to say that there will be widespread automation within all industries. For instance, while generic graphic designs can now be done with AI programs, the conceptualisation of deeply creative new images and visual themes will remain largely in the domain of humans, especially on matters that require a highly nuanced understanding of consumer tastes and preferences.
In general, some of the last job roles to be eliminated will be those relying heavily on novel creativity, strategic decision-making, critical thinking and physical manipulation in life-or-death situations.
COST SAVINGS
Yet, among these roles, the routine and labour-intensive tasks will most likely be automated first as that is where most cost savings will be obtained. To put into context, there is more money to be saved by automating car driving than helicopter piloting, and more to be saved by automating medical research than particle physics research.
In my view, the reduction of the need for humans to work for a living should be massively positive, where in an ideal world, it would free up people's time to pursue more social, artistic, intellectual and spiritual endeavours.
Imagine living in a society where, through the work achieved by technology, the psychology of defining one's importance, status and identity no longer relies on one's career or income.
While that is almost sure to be a rocky road given the realities of geopolitics and income inequality, projects such as the decentralised AI movement led by SingularityNET aim to smooth the path towards it in a democratic and participatory way.
If a substantial portion of the world's AI brainpower is running on decentralised networks that are owned and controlled by their participants, it is more likely that the replacement of human labour with AI will unfold in a way that is beneficial for a large percentage of humanity. When that happens, we know that the AI revolution has reached the point of full success.
Ben Goertzel is the CEO of SingularityNET, a specialist in decentralised AI networks. He will take part in a panel discussion titled "Let's Get Real About the Magic of AI and its Benefits to the Society" at the ConnecTechAsia2019 Summit on June 18 at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore.
