FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — The hallmark of the 2022 hurricane season — so far — has been uncharacteristic calmness, and the benign conditions might not change for the remainder of August, forecasters say.
This could be just the third August since 1961, and the first August since 1997, without a named storm, according to AccuWeather, the independent forecasting service.
As Wednesday’s 30th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew approaches, it’s also interesting to note this season’s calm follows 2021, the third-most active season with 21 named storms, and 2020, the most active season with 30 named storms. And this year was the first time in seven years there wasn’t a named storm before the June 1 start of hurricane season.
Two tropical waves are expected to come off Africa’s west coast soon — one in the next few days and another over the weekend. The second one has the best chance for developing.
Dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear are the main reasons no named storms have developed recently and only three — Alex, Bonnie and Colin — have developed so far this season.
“As these waves come off (the African coast) each one kind of moistens up the atmosphere, it makes it a little more favorable for the next one,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Adam Douty.
“Eventually we’ll get one to develop,” Douty said. “It looks like the one right around the end of the month could be the one. It looks like it’ll be really close whether we make it through the entire month without a system.”
As the storms come off the African coast this year they’ve hit pockets of dry air and wind shear that rips them apart or prevents further development before reaching the eastern Caribbean.
If the storms can get through those barriers and close the U.S. coast or into the Gulf of Mexico, they could thrive because the Bermuda High is favorable for development and water temperatures in the Gulf are above normal. But few storms have successfully made the journey.
Douty said it’s doubtful storms will develop in the Caribbean. The storms that develop in August and September often start as tropical waves off the African coast.
“This time of the year, later into the season, that’s the spot you really start looking at as the waves get progressively stronger,” he said.
Last year there were seven named storms in August, with four developing into hurricanes.
The most active part of hurricane season is usually from mid-August through October with the peak being Sept. 10.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
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