MIAMI _ Hurricane Michael mushroomed into a powerful Category 3 storm Tuesday evening as it raced toward Florida's Gulf Coast, packing a dangerous surge threatening to pound hundreds of miles of shoreline.
In a 5 p.m. EDT update, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Michael's maximum winds have reached 120 mph and could continue to increase slightly as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico headed for the famed white sand beaches of the Panhandle. The storm was located about 295 miles south of Panama City, the center of the potential landfall zone, and moving north at 12 mph. It's now expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon, but increasing winds, pounding surf and rains could reach parts of the coast Tuesday night.
Hurricane and storm surge warnings covered much of the Gulf Coast, as far south as Tampa. Tropical storms warnings and watches were also extended to the U.S. east coast, from Fernandina Beach, just north of Jacksonville, to North Carolina, with heavy rain and wind expected to carve a dangerous path inland. In the Carolinas, areas still digging out from flooding unleashed by a slow-moving Hurricane Florence last month could see heavy rain again.
Tuesday afternoon, forecasters continued to call for the heaviest storm surge near the Big Bend, with areas in red projected to get nine feet or more and orange zones expected to get six feet or more. Source: National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters and emergency managers continued to warn that Michael's storm surge remains the most serious coastal threat, since the bend in the shoreline traps powerful waves. Water levels were 1 { to 2 feet above normal along parts of the coast Tuesday with the storm was more than 300 miles away, National Hurricane Center storm surge chief Jamie Rhome said. Michael could also near the coast on a rising tide, which could compound problems.
Conditions could be made worse by the frayed coastline, which is carved with bays, coves and rivers that can easily channel water further inland, said hurricane center director Ken Graham. Areas like St. Marks, Panacea and Ochlockonee Bay, tiny communities surrounded by a wilderness of water, swamp and pine sandhills, are particularly vulnerable, he said.
"The water actually goes right over these barrier islands and starts to go into the bays and inland," he said. "It could push inland 10 to 15 miles up rivers."
The highest surge could reach 13 feet, near Mexican Beach. But pounding surge is expected to hammer much of the coast, including the tiny island of Cedar Key, where a no-name hurricane in 1896 pushed ashore a fatal 10-foot storm surge that killed 100. The amount and location all depend on the storm's track and could shift as the storm wobbles.
In repeated briefings through the day, Gov. Rick Scott continued to urge residents in the storm's path to heed evacuation orders and warnings about the dangerous surge.
"The state has experienced winds before like this and rain like this. The storm surge could be historic," he said.
As Michael plows across the open Gulf, wave heights could reach 40 feet, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Given the slope of the beach and dune height, USGS researchers said storm surge could be higher than hurricane forecasters projected, reaching 16 to 20 feet above normal between Cape San Blas and St. George, two barrier islands better known for unspoiled beaches and strict building heights.
"The shallow sea bed will reduce that wave height somewhat," near the coast, Kara Dorn, an oceanographer and head of USGS's Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team, said in a statement. "But water levels in some parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle coast will still be high enough to overwhelm the dunes, which are relatively low and narrow."
In advance of the storm on Monday, emergency managers ordered mandatory evacuations along the coast expected to see the fiercest winds and highest surge, including Wakulla, Franklin, Gulf and Bay counties. Voluntary evacuations were ordered for Santa Rosa, Hernando, Leon and Liberty counties.
Michael could be the strongest storm to strike the area since Hurricane Ivan in 2004, which made landfall near Pensacola as a Category 3 and caused more than $20 billion in damage in the U.S. A decade earlier, Opal, another October hurricane, roared ashore near Pensacola with a 15-foot storm surge that destroyed a mile of U.S. Highway 98.
The state's emergency manager, Wes Maul, worried residents who comply may be greeted by unprepared local officials. In Wakulla, where mandatory evacuations were ordered, no shelters were open because none are rated safe enough for a Category 3 storm.
"Most do not intend to begin their life safety operations until after lunch (Tuesday), leaving precious few hours for families to prepare," Maul wrote to state legislators, county officials and mayors Monday. "If they "did not get their mission and commodity requests in (by Monday night), it is unlikely that we can fulfill those requests before the onset of the storm."
Maul's warning echoed concerns he raised to staff members in Tallahassee earlier Tuesday about shelters coming online at the last minute. Tuesday afternoon, Division of Emergency Management spokesman Alberto Moscoso said Maul continues "to stress the need for urgency from county officials who are in charge of evacuations and sheltering operations."
In Cuba, heavy rain continued to drench the western end of the island, where 6 to 12 inches of rain fell during a 24-hour period. In La Palma, a town on the province's north coast, gauges recorded 13.5 inches. Downed trees knocked out power in the island's westernmost province, where more than 300 people were evacuated from flood-prone areas, according to state media.
In Florida, Scott expanded a state of emergency to 35 counties, ordered 2,500 National Guard members to duty and lifted tolls. Health officials were checking on facilities that care for the elderly, which were ordered to install generators and file evacuation plans after a dozen patients died in stifling heat in a Hollywood facility that lost power following Hurricane Irma.
"My expectation is if you are a health care facility you have a responsibility to take care of those patients," Scott told reporters at a morning briefing. "My expectation is people comply."
Ambulance strike teams will also be on standby, Scott said, along with wildlife officers with high-water rescue vehicles and about 450 additional Florida Highway Patrol officers to handle deteriorating road conditions, including bridge closings.
Scott also said state officials were in contact with local shelter officials to avoid problems caused during Irma when a shortage of workers left many unstaffed. After more than 650,000 residents were ordered out of their homes before Irma, Miami-Dade raced to find staff, leaving some people stranded.
"We're going through county by county to make sure we have all the shelters we need," he said.
Scott also ordered state offices in counties under evacuation orders closed Tuesday, the same day voter registration closes. Secretary of State Ken Detzner said those counties affected will be given an extra day when they reopen to resume registration.
The state's tourism agency has also teamed up with Expedia.com to find hotel rooms for evacuees, he said.
But despite the repeated warnings to flee, some residents said they were staying put.
"I just can't bring myself to spend that much money," Aja Kemp, 36, who lives in a mobile home in Crawfordville, told The Associated Press. When her family fled Irma, they spent more than $800. So after working the night shift stocking shelves at a big box store Tuesday, she spent the day securing her yard.
"We've got supplies to last us a week," she said. "Plenty of water. I made sure we've got clean clothes. We got everything tied down."
