Hurricane Laura is close to reaching Category 5 strength and is on the verge of becoming the most powerful hurricane to ever strike Louisiana, threatening the region with deadly storm surges, flash floods and devastating winds that could inflict more than $15 billion in insured losses.
With winds of 150 miles per hour, Laura is just 7 mph short of the most powerful storm category possible, and it's matching the previous record breaker, the Lost Island Hurricane of 1856.
Some additional strengthening is possible Wednesday night before Laura reaches the northwest U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast overnight, the National Hurricane Center said. It's coming with more power than Hurricane Harvey had when it made landfall in Texas in 2017.
Laura extends an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season that still has three months left to go. It will be the seventh system to hit the U.S., a record for the time of year, and the first major hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast since Michael in 2018.
Laura has prompted mandatory evacuations in coastal areas and is targeting the heart of America's energy industry, shutting more than 80% of gulf oil production and a third of the region's refining capacity.
Heavy rain was beginning to pour onshore as of 7 p.m. EDT, according to the NHC.
For anyone living in an area that floods or is in the direct path of Laura's landfall, "there is no calculation to be made: Get out," said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research.
"Whatever fears you might have about COVID are secondary _ even those with health issues that might make riding out a weaker storm an option."
"Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes," Dan Brown, a forecaster at the hurricane center, wrote in an earlier update.
After Laura rips across the Gulf Coast, it will leave a path of destruction through the Mississippi Valley before turning on the Mid-Atlantic region that just recovered from Hurricane Isaias, said Jim Rouiller, lead meteorologist with the Energy Weather Group. There is a possibility Laura will reintensify once it makes it to Maryland, New Jersey and possibly New York, he said.
There could be crop damage in western Louisiana and Arkansas, but to the east Laura's rains will be beneficial as they spread into Mississippi, Maxar's Keeney said.
The tropical threat has prompted more than 84% of oil output and nearly 61% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico to be shut, according to the Interior Department's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.
Gulf Coast refineries and petrochemical plants are often located in low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding. In 2017, an Arkema SA chemical plant about 25 miles east of Houston had a fire and explosion after it was flooded by Hurricane Harvey. Last September, Exxon shut its Beaumont refinery in Texas because of flooding from Tropical Storm Imelda.
The power grid operator for the Midwest is already bracing itself for the storm. The system manager Midcontinent Independent System Operator has issued a severe weather alert through Thursday and said it has backup operations ready.
Meanwhile, New Orleans, Louisiana-based utility giant Entergy Corp. has already requested mutual assistance, and said it has tens of thousands of workers from 20 states preparing to assist in restoring power following the storm.
The storm could cause as much as $25 billion in damage and economic losses, Watson said. The destruction to refineries could cost $5 billion alone.
Laura could push sea levels as high as 20 feet in the Sabine Pass area and along parts of the Texas coast where the Henry Hub is located, the hurricane center said. Storm surges kill almost half of all people who die in hurricanes.
The last hurricane to hit Texas as a Category 4 storm was Harvey in 2017, which came ashore and then got pinned in place by larger weather patterns, causing it to send record rains across the eastern half of the state for days. It killed 68 people and caused $131 billion of damage. The last hurricane to hit Texas was Hanna in July.
