MIAMI _ Hurricane Isaias' potential path has once again shifted west, upping the chances of a landfall along the southeast coast of Florida _ possibly as a tropical storm _ on Sunday.
The 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center showed a storm that is slowing down and getting better organized, despite a struggle against higher wind shear, as it passed through the warm waters of the central Bahamas.
The latest projection showed Hurricane Isaias scraping along the coast near Riviera Beach Sunday at 2 a.m. with 80 mph winds and 100 mph gusts, triggering a round of upgraded hurricane warnings for Florida's coast.
Boca Raton to Brevard County is now under a hurricane warning, which means hurricane-force-winds are expected in the next 36 hours. A hurricane watch, which means hurricane conditions are possible in the next 48 hours, has been issued from Hallandale Beach to just south of Boca Raton, as well as Brevard and Volusia County.
Southeast Florida from Ocean Reef north to Boca Raton and Lake Okeechobee are under a tropical storm warning.
As of the 5 p.m. EDT update, Isaias was less than 200 miles south of Nassau and was packing 75 mph winds. The hurricane center said it expected the storm to strengthen over the next 24 hours to maximum sustained wind speeds of 85 mph as it nears Florida.
Forecasters predicted Isaias will weaken as it rides Florida's coast Sunday, before eventually downgrading to a tropical storm early Monday as it crossed the border to Georgia.
Models and meteorologists point to wind shear and an approaching trough of air from the west as factors that could send Isaias' path wobbling toward or away from Florida. The general consensus is a more organized storm will stay east, toward the Bahamas, and a weaker, more ragged storm could stray west, toward Florida.
"The more it struggles, the greater chance of a Florida landfall," tweeted Levi Cowan, a meteorologist at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. "Be prepared for possible tropical storm impacts there."
According to the National Weather Service, the strongest winds in Florida will be felt from Fort Lauderdale to Port Orange, where there's potential for hurricane-force winds from 74 mph to 110 mph.
The weather service predicted slightly weaker conditions from South Miami to Ormond Beach, where there's potential for winds from 58 mph to 73 mph. Homestead and Kendall are predicted to see winds from 39 mph to 57 mph.
The hurricane center predicted at 5 p.m. that Miami has about a 39% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds and a 2% chance of seeing hurricane-force winds on Sunday. That chance goes up farther up the coast, to a 69% chance of tropical storm-force winds in Fort Lauderdale and 76% for West Palm Beach. Chances of hurricane-force winds remain low along the coast, with the highest chance _ 9% _ in West Palm Beach.
All of those numbers have edged up throughout Friday as newer forecasts show Isaias' path closer to Florida.
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet could see 1 to 3 feet of storm surge, while Jupiter Inlet north to Ponte Vedra Becah could see two to four feet. The hurricane center predicted that South Florida to east Central Florida could see two to four inches of rain, with some spots seeing six inches.
Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez told reporters Friday morning the county had 20 shelters on standby but didn't plan to open any, so far avoiding a test of the county's planned provisions to enforce social distancing and screen for the coronavirus at shelters. Transit hours remained unchanged since forecasts didn't call for the sustained tropical storm-force winds that require buses to stay in garages and Metrorail to halt service.
The county announced Thursday that all facilities operated by the Miami-Dade County Parks, Recreation and Open Spaces Department, including beaches and parks, will close by 8 p.m. Friday in preparation for the storm. State-supported COVID-19 testing sites across Florida will also be closed at least until Tuesday morning due to the storm.
Speaking online with a face mask at the county's Emergency Operations center in Doral shortly before 10 a.m., Gimenez said this would likely be his last Isaias press conference until Saturday, given the current forecast.
"If that changes, we'll be back on the air," he said.
COVID promises a far more complicated storm threat, no matter the Isaias track. An emergency order issued by Gimenez on July 9 bans indoor dining at restaurants Gimenez advised restaurants Friday to consider dismantling the tents and temporary patios providing their only table offerings for the weekend.
"I would start to move a lot of that equipment indoors before the onset of tropical-force winds," he said.
People with COVID are still welcome at county schools used as shelters should they open. Gimenez said people diagnosed with COVID will be isolated in classrooms, which are usually off-limits at shelters. Meals also won't be served at cafeterias, another big COVID change in the county's shelter plans He also urged everyone to wear masks indoors when friends or family from other households arrive to ride out a storm.
Isaias also is disrupting county efforts to slow the COVID spread. Miami-Dade joined Florida in shutting down testing sites Friday as Isaias threatened. They will remain closed through the weekend, but could open as soon as Monday, Deputy Mayor Maurice Kemp said. Gimenez said the shutdown of testing hurts anti-COVID efforts, but the outdoor facilities need time to shut down well ahead of a storm's threat.
"There will be thousands of tests that won't be conducted until we get these sites up and running again," Gimenez said. "Is there a concern? Yes."
Friday afternoon, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ordered a state of emergency for the Florida counties covered by storm watches and warnings, including Brevard, Broward, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Indian River, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Putnam, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, and Volusia.
As Hurricane Isaias continues through the Bahamas, northwestern, southeastern and central Bahamas remain under a hurricane watch and the Turks and Caicos is under a tropical storm warning.
Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Minnis asked Bahamians to take the approaching storm seriously and again urged them "to prepare for the worse just in case."
He also said this weekend's COVID-19 lockdown, put in place to try and stem the tide of rising coronavirus cases, will be relaxed to allow people to prepare for the storm. The hours of supermarkets and other stores will be extended and individuals will be allowed to move around.
Effective Friday, a curfew will be in place from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. until further notice.
Based on current indicators and data provided, a lockdown will still be necessary following the passage of this storm, Minnis said. "Much stronger protective and mitigation measures are absolutely necessary and will have to be implemented," he said.
He also told Bahamians that the country remains in the midst of a pandemic and if they do not act responsibly, the consequences could be dire. He begged them not to use the storm to go "socializing" and meeting with friends and family.
"The situation we are in is very fast-moving and fluid," he said.
Minnis also appealed to the country's youth, who have been booking reservations at local hotels to wait out the hurricane. Minnis asked them not to engage in COVID-19 or hurricane parties.
"Use that time for security and safety, please. Do not engage in a hurricane or COVID party. It will not help us and it can be devastating. We will see the aftereffects, if not in two weeks, possibly later," Minnis said.
While the Bahamas is still recovering from the devastating effects of last year's Hurricane Dorian, which slammed the islands of Grand Bahama and the Abacos, it is also dealing with a surge in coronavirus cases after fully reopening its borders on July 1. The surge first led to announcing a travel ban for U.S. travelers. It has since amended it by saying all visitors are welcomed but will need to quarantine _ at their own expense _ in a government facility for 14 days and take a COVID-19 test before being discharged.
