MIAMI _ After a brutal start to September, when Florence and three other named storms churned across the Atlantic at once, hurricane season is simmering again.
On Friday, National Hurricane Center forecasters were watching four systems with the potential to become tropical depressions or storms, two of which could affect the U.S. While odds remain very low for the disturbance closest to the U.S. and headed for the Windward Islands, a wave rolling off the African coast could blossom into a tropical depression early next week, forecasters said.
"The environment is favorable for slow development over the next few days, but we've got plenty of time to watch that system," said Mike Brennan, senior hurricane specialist.
The two other systems to the north, including one spawned by Florence's trailing energy as it rolled out to sea, are not likely to threaten the U.S. coast.
The uptick follows a brief lull after Florence made landfall last Friday morning in North Carolina, where widespread flooding from heavy rain continues, and tropical storms Helene, Isaac and Joyce swirled around the Atlantic. Gordon had made a brief appearance, but fizzled out before the others got their start.
For South Florida, the most worrisome months are still to come.
"We still have that secondary bump in activity as we get into mid-October and start to see fronts in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean," Brennan said. "And one of the most likely times for us to be affected in South Florida is in October, when storms develop in the northwest Caribbean and then get picked up and moved to the north, northeast."
Having four systems in the basin at once this time of year is not unusual, he said. In fact, having so many, but none as tropical depressions or storms, is more unusual.
The year was always expected to be busy. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an above-average season with 10 to 16 named storms and one to four major hurricanes. In August, as an El Nino weather pattern showed signs of forming over warm Pacific waters, which can generate upper levels winds in the Atlantic to help smother storms, they scaled back the number of storms to 9 to 13 named storms and two or fewer major hurricanes.
But so far, the El Nino has been a little slower to develop than expected. In August, forecasters said the system was more than likely to develop in the fall. This month, they lowered the odds to 50-50 during the fall and more likely over winter months.
The systems brewing in the Atlantic now are scattered and varied. The closest system, located 200 miles east of the Windward Islands Friday, remained messy and was expected to encounter dry air and upper level winds that keep it from forming.
Farther north, a system spun off Florence is also likely to face dry air and strong wind shear that prevent it from forming. Forecasters gave it just a 20 percent chance over five days. To the northeast, a system between Bermuda and the Azores has a far greater chance as it collides with more favorable conditions _ forecasters put the odds at 70 percent over five days _ but poses no threat to the U.S. coast.
The system to watch remains far away, about 600 miles southeast of the Cape Verde islands. However, it's expected to slowly get better organized as it moves at a quick clip of 15 to 20 mph and could be a tropical depression by early next week.
