FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Hurricane Dorian's forecast track is still heading northwest but now has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph with stronger gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center's 8 p.m. EDT tropical outlook Friday.
Dorian is 575 miles east of West Palm Beach, but the center of the track heads to Martin and St. Lucie counties and reflects the chance the storm could take a hard right turn and spare Florida a direct hit.
The latest atmospheric data indicates the hurricane could start its much-anticipated wheel to the north before reaching Florida, which would bring its point of landfall farther up the coast, according to the hurricane center's Friday evening advisory.
But the hurricane center said models have not been consistent and that the entire east coast of the state remains a possible target for a storm projected to achieve wind speeds of 140 mph by the time it hits land.
In the time between the center's 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. updates, Dorian's wind speed escalated by 10 mph. A hurricane hunter aircraft clocked maximum sustained winds at 125 mph, the hurricane center said.
Scenarios for Florida's east coast remained varied, from a catastrophic direct hit by a Category 4 storm to a glancing blow from the left side of the hurricane as it remained out to sea and drifted north. The hurricane center said "any small deviation in the track could bring the core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep it near the coast, or offshore."
Although the entire east coast remains at risk, due to the growing chances for an early turn north, the hurricane center shifted the cone. But forecasters urged residents to not focus on minor changes in predicted tracks instead of the reality that the whole Florida coast was exposed to the danger.
"The models have not been very consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland," wrote senior hurricane forecaster Lixion Avila, in a forecast discussion issued at 5 p.m. Friday.
"Given this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the left or right depending on future model trends."
The hurricane reached Category 3 strength Friday afternoon and showed little change in its projected course toward Florida. It has developed a classic hurricane structure, with a well-defined eye and hurricane-force winds extending up to 30 miles from the center. At 5 p.m. the storm was about 595 miles east of West Palm Beach.
A Category 3 storm is considered a major hurricane, one that will cause "devastating damage," according to the hurricane center. The storm is projected to reach Category 4 strength, with top winds of 140 mph, by the time it makes landfall.
The center of the storm may not make landfall until early Tuesday, as the storm's projected forward motion continues to slow down, said Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami.
"There's not a lot that we're confident about this forecast scenario as it approaches Florida, but one of the things that we are confident about is that it will slow down," he said.
The first brief tropical-force gusts could arrive as early as Sunday during the day. Sustained tropical-force winds probably won't arrive until Sunday night and may not start until Monday, he said.
The hurricane could bring a storm surge of 10 feet or more to the east coast of Florida, the head of the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.
Palm Beach County has a 45% to 55% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds, which means speeds of at least 74 mph, the National Weather Service said. Broward has a 40% to 50% chance and Miami-Dade has a 25% to 35% chance, the weather service said.
The chance for tropical-force winds, which means speeds of at least 39 mph, has increased to 85% to 95% for Palm Beach County, 80% to 95% for Broward and 75% to 90% for Miami-Dade.
Ken Graham, director of the hurricane center, said his scientists are still working out the forecast but that "a Category 4 storm like this striking Florida could produce a storm surge of 10-foot or greater."
The cone of uncertainty, which shows possible locations of the storm's center, looks more like a balloon than a cone when it reaches Florida, reflecting a lack of consensus on when the storm will turn north.
Molleda, of the National Weather Service in Miami, said South Florida should be prepared for a weekend of uncertainty.
"All weekend it's going to be moving slowly but surely toward South Florida," he said. "The big question begins as it approaches the coastline. This is going to be a long event."
The storm was projected to continue to slow its forward motion, an ominous development that could subject areas in its path to a prolonged lashing from winds and rain.
"Slow is never our friend," Graham said. "Slow means more rain. Slow means a longer period of time to get those winds and saturate the soils. More trees down. More power outages."
He said the storm could bring 6 to 10 inches of rain to some areas, with a few isolated areas experiencing 10 to 15 inches.
"Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge and winds will occur," the hurricane center said in an 11 a.m. discussion. "Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials."
A hurricane watch was issued overnight for the northwestern Bahamas.
Seasonal "king tides" that are currently affecting parts of South Florida increase the threat of flooding.
Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded an emergency declaration to cover the entire state, which will ease road restrictions and allow for more fuel to be transported to stations. In the event of evacuation orders, tolls will be suspended, he said.
DeSantis said he expected the state's Emergency Operations Center to be fully activated Friday.
"If you're in the path of this storm anywhere on the East Coast of Florida, make your preparations," DeSantis said Thursday afternoon. "Take action."
DeSantis said he spoke with President Donald Trump on Wednesday night.
Trump said Thursday that Florida is "going to be totally ready" for the storm.
Trump is canceling a trip to Poland this weekend, so he can monitor Hurricane Dorian.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
