FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Hurricane Dorian's forecast track changed little with the 11 a.m. Friday update, with the center of the cone of uncertainty still aimed at Palm Beach County.
The hurricane could bring a storm surge of 10 feet or more to the east coast of Florida, the head of the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.
The storm's projected path continued to shift south with the latest advisory, with the path now centered on Palm Beach County but the possibilities reaching across the state's entire east coast. Projections for the storm's top winds continued to climb, with the latest forecast calling for top speeds of 140 miles per hour, well within Category 4 strength, according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the hurricane center.
Palm Beach County has a 45-55% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds, which means speeds of at least 74 miles per hour, the National Weather Service said. Broward has a 40-50% chance and Miami-Dade has a 25-35% chance, the weather service said.
The chance for tropical-force winds, which means speeds of at least 39 miles per hour, has increased to 85-95% for Palm Beach County, 80-95% for Broward and 75-90% for Miami-Dade.
Ken Graham, director of the hurricane center, said his scientists are still working out the forecast but that "a Category 4 storm like this striking Florida could produce a storm surge of 10-foot or greater."
The storm was projected to continue to slow its forward motion, an ominous development that could subject areas in its path to a prolonged lashing from winds and rain.
"Slow is never our friend," Graham said. "...Slow means more rain. Slow means a longer period of time to get those winds and saturate the soils. More trees down. More power outages."
He said the storm could bring six to 10 inches of rain to some areas, with a few isolated ares experiencing 10 to 15 inches.
The storm's westward march showed signs of slowing overnight, delaying its landfall until later Monday or even Tuesday, making its approach and landfall a "prolonged, drawn-out event," the hurricane center said Friday.
"Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge and winds will occur," the hurricane center said in an 11 a.m. discussion. "Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials."
A hurricane watch was issued overnight for the northwestern Bahamas.
Where Dorian makes landfall _ this long Labor Day Weekend or early next week _ all depends on where and when the storm makes a left turn.
During the overnight hours there was increasing consensus between the European and American forecast models _ putting Dorian somewhere in the vicinity of South to Central Florida. Forecasters warn that the models are likely to change in coming days and Dorian is still a threat to anywhere along Florida's east coast between the Keys and Georgia.
Still, some European tracks show an outside chance that Dorian will curl north, hugging the coast rather than making landfall in Florida.
At 11 a.m. Friday, Dorian was located about 480 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, a wind speed that is at the top of the Category 2 scale. Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 10 mph.
Hurricane-force winds were extending outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds were extending outward up to 105 miles.
"On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday," Senior Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avila wrote in the latest advisory.
A critical key to where the storm ultimately lands is when it makes a turn northwestward and northward, the hurricane center said.
"The biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall," Lixion wrote in the advisory.
What we do know is that this is developing into an extremely dangerous storm, made even worse by the fact that it's slow-moving. That means it will linger, with ferocious winds and torrential rain, possibly for an entire day. And life-threatening storm surge could strike anywhere in Florida, under the current forecast.
Forecasters warn that Florida could be under devastating hurricane-force winds and possible double-digit rainfall for a day or more, which is many more hours than previous storms.
Seasonal King Tides that are currently affecting parts of South Florida increase the threat of flooding.
The potential impact window will start to come more into focus on Friday afternoon, said Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service's South Florida forecast branch, when the location and direction of the storm's gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to become more apparent.
If the turn happens earlier the storm would be set on a path more likely to hit South Florida. But if Dorian continues to drift north, a later turn would carry the storm closer to Central or North Florida.
Because the storm was still far away from Florida, the slightest change in angle could mean a huge difference in where the landfall occurs.
"We're talking about very small differences here that could make all the difference in the world," Molleda said in a conference call with reporters.
Forecasters say Dorian is shaping up to be a storm to remember _ and not in a good way.
Broward and Palm Beach counties may have information on Friday on when and if shelters will open. No shelters have opened so far.
Broward Schools Superintendent Robert Runcie said Broward schools would follow a normal schedule Friday, including after-school activities.
However, all student activities _ "including athletic games, practices and clubs" _ and professional development activities across the district," scheduled for Saturday through Monday are being cancelled, he said.
Palm Beach County Schools Superintendent Donald Fennoy said there will be school in the county Friday, but afterschool activities, including sporting events, are canceled. Elementary school aftercare will operate Friday. Staff will spend the weekend protecting the 30 million square feet of schools in the county, he said.
You should already be preparing for the storm, stocking up on enough food, water, gas, propane, cash, etc. to last for at least a week. Lines at gas stations and supply stores snaked through surrounding roads Thursday.
Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded an emergency declaration to cover the entire state, which will ease road restrictions and allow for more fuel to be transported to stations. In the event of evacuation orders, tolls will be suspended, he said.
DeSantis said he expects the state's Emergency Operations Center to be fully activated Friday.
"If you're in the path of this storm anywhere on the East Coast of Florida, make your preparations," DeSantis said Thursday afternoon. "Take action."
DeSantis said he spoke with President Donald Trump on Wednesday night.
Trump said Thursday that Florida is "going to be totally ready" for the storm.
Trump is canceling a trip to Poland this weekend, so he can monitor Hurricane Dorian.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
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