FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Hurricane Dorian is still forecast to strike Florida as a major Category 3 storm, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday. And somewhat ominously for South Florida, the predicted storm track continues to edge south.
But if Dorian does indeed stay on a path to hit Florida, the landfall would be Sunday or Monday. This far out, the uncertainty surrounding the forecast _ both the track and its intensity _ is typical.
"The track forecast errors at Day 4 and Day 5 are large," said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the hurricane center. "The center of the storm can be anywhere in that cone two-thirds of the time. And the cone has nothing to do with where the impacts of wind and water will take place."
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 26 Florida counties, including all of South Florida, Wednesday evening.
The 5 p.m. EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center showed Dorian's projected path coming ashore south of Cape Canaveral, a southward drop from earlier forecasts Wednesday.
Some of the global weather prediction systems, particularly the European forecast model, pointed Dorian closer to Palm Beach County. Others, like the American model, had the storm hitting father north near Daytona Beach and St. Augustine.
"Residents of Florida need to pay attention to this hurricane and make sure their hurricane plan is ready to go," Feltgen said.
Florida residents who experienced Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and Hurricane Irma in 2017 will remember that pretty much right up until the last day or so, nobody really knew if South Florida would be spared or not.
And Irma, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 132 mph in Cudjoe Key in the lower Keys, still exacted a significant amount of damage in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.
According to the hurricane center, tropical storm-force winds could start hitting parts of Florida on Saturday.
If Dorian is a Category 3 when it hits Florida, that means it will have top winds of between 111 and 129 mph. Winds that powerful are strong enough to carve a huge path of destruction while tearing off roofs, toppling trees and causing electricity and water outages that could last for days if not weeks.
Dorian's forecast path now projects the storm, which was bearing down on Puerto Rico midday Wednesday, would dodge the Dominican Republic and emerge in the Atlantic Ocean well east of the Bahamas.
Because the path now has Dorian churning out over the open Atlantic, the storm will now be guzzling the fuel that pumps storms up into monsters _ warm ocean waters _ while encountering not much storm killing wind shear in its path.
At 11 a.m. Dorian was just 45 miles northwest of St. Thomas with maximum winds of 80 mph _ a 30 mph increase from Tuesday and a 20 mph increase from Wednesday morning _ as it moved northwest at 14 mph.
No matter what happens, Dorian is expected to drench the Florida peninsula with 4 to 8 inches of rain and, in isolated areas, up to 10 inches, according to the hurricane center.
Be prepared, officials urge.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Erin, formerly a tropical storm overnight, was churning in the Atlantic about 265 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., with winds measuring 40 mph. It was posing no immediate threat to the United States.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
