FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Hurricane Dorian's forecast path shifted away from most of South Florida in the 11 a.m. EDT Saturday update from the National Hurricane Center, which shows a growing chance the storm will strike the Carolinas or remain at sea.
The storm's wind speeds increased to 150 miles per hour, putting it at the upper end of Category 4 strength. Wind speeds are expected to strengthen to 155 miles per hour, just short of Category 5 force, before diminishing to 140 or so as it nears Florida.
Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center, described Dorian as a storm in robust health, a "textbook" hurricane with a well-defined eye that was still growing in strength. While he said the forecast looks better for Florida, the proximity of such a powerful storm still places the coast in danger.
"If you're in Florida, yes, you can look at it and see that as we're getting further off the coast, and it seems like good news," he said late Saturday morning. "But again, at the same time, a 150-mile hurricane. This is a powerful storm. A little closer to us and you could get more impacts. But either way, some places in Florida could see some of that rain, could still see some of those elevated tides with the storm surge, so we've just got to pay attention to the latest forecast."
Possible scenarios for South Florida range from the shrinking but still real possibility of a direct hit by a major hurricane to the chance of heavy wind, rain and waves as the hurricane turns north and just brushes the coast.
Tropical-force winds, which mean winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour, extend about 115 miles from the storm's center, which means South Florida could experience severe weather even if the hurricane remains well out to sea. Heavy rain would also be likely, with forecasts calling for six to 10 inches along the Florida coast, even without a direct hit.
"Latest forecast trends keep the center of Dorian offshore, but there is a risk for tropical storm force winds across all of South Florida, with hurricane force winds possible for Palm Beach County in addition to storm surge and rainfall flooding," the National Weather Service in Miami said in a statement released after the latest storm tracks were released. "South Florida is not yet clear and people should remain vigilant as impacts are likely."
The so-called "spaghetti models," the tangle of possible storm paths produced by various meteorological organizations, show a decisive shift toward the Atlantic, with almost all holding the storm's core offshore until the Carolinas. Some models show no landfall at all, with the storm curling northeast into the middle of the ocean.
The hurricane center said the track could shift farther out to sea in the next few updates, since most model tracks actually lie east of the hurricane center's current path.
While that appears to be better news for South Florida, most of the state remains in the cone of uncertainty.
A key question is how slow the storm moves. It's expected to slow to a virtual standstill as it reaches the Bahamas, moving forward at just 2 mph. The slower it goes, the more likely it is that the storm's much-anticipated wheel to the north will take place before it reaches Florida.
"The slower the storm, the further we might inch that track a little toward the east," said hurricane center director Graham Saturday morning. "However, let's be careful with that because Florida's still in the cone. ... Florida could still see some of that on-shore flow, the high water, the heavy rainfall and also see the winds. We can't let our guard down yet. We just don't know. A little faster storm could still put the center over Florida."
Forecasters warn that the margin for error remains significant and that most of Florida's east coast remained at risk of a devastating strike from a Category 4 storm.
"It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore," Senior Hurricane Specialist Jack Beven wrote in Saturday morning's advisory.
At 11 a.m. Saturday the storm was 415 miles east of West Palm Beach. As expected, its forward movement has slowed substantially, declining from 12 miles per hour earlier Saturday to 8 miles per hour.
Dorian is expected to slow Monday evening as it nears the Florida coast, and make landfall anywhere within the cone possibly as early as Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring two more systems early Saturday.
One is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that is being give a low, 20% chance of formation over the next five days. The other is a tropical wave that has just emerged off the coast of Africa. It is being given a 50% chance of forming into a depression or storm through the next five days.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
