FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Hurricane Dorian reached Category 3 strength Friday afternoon, generating winds of 115 miles per hour and showing little change in its projected course toward Florida.
The 2 p.m. EDT update from the National Hurricane Center showed the center of the cone of uncertainty to be around northern Palm Beach County.
A Category 3 storm is considered a major hurricane, one that will cause "devastating damage," according to the hurricane center. The storm is projected to reach Category 4 strength, with top winds of 140 mph, by the time it makes landfall.
The center of the storm may not make landfall until early Tuesday, as the storm's projected forward motion continues to slow down, said Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami.
"There's not a lot that we're confident about this forecast scenario as it approaches Florida, but one of the things that we are confident about is that it will slow down," he said.
The first brief tropical-force gusts could arrive as early as Sunday during the day. Sustained tropical-force winds probably won't arrive until Sunday night and may not start until Monday, he said.
The hurricane could bring a storm surge of 10 feet or more to the east coast of Florida, the head of the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.
Although the storm's projected path shifted south overnight, putting South Florida at increased risk, the range of landfall possibilities extend along the state's entire east coast.
The storm remains relatively small. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles
Palm Beach County has a 45-55% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds, which means speeds of at least 74 miles per hour, the National Weather Service said. Broward has a 40-50% chance and Miami-Dade has a 25-35% chance, the weather service said.
The chance for tropical-force winds, which means speeds of at least 39 miles per hour, has increased to 85-95% for Palm Beach County, 80-95% for Broward and 75-90% for Miami-Dade.
Ken Graham, director of the hurricane center, said his scientists are still working out the forecast but that "a Category 4 storm like this striking Florida could produce a storm surge of 10 foot or greater."
The cone of uncertainty, which shows possible locations of the storm's center, looks more like a balloon than a cone when it reaches Florida, reflecting a lack of consensus on when the storm will turn north.
If Dorian turns north early, it may not make landfall and instead just skim the east coast of the state. Or it could make landfall and then turn right, buzzing up the spine of Florida. Or it could cross the peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico.
Molleda, of the National Weather Service in Miami, said South Florida should be prepared for a weekend of uncertainty.
"All weekend it's going to be moving slowly but surely toward South Florida," he said. "The big question begins as it approaches the coastline. This is going to be a long event."
The storm was projected to continue to slow its forward motion, an ominous development that could subject areas in its path to a prolonged lashing from winds and rain.
"Slow is never our friend," Graham said. " ... Slow means more rain. Slow means a longer period of time to get those winds and saturate the soils. More trees down. More power outages."
He said the storm could bring six to 10 inches of rain to some areas, with a few isolated areas experiencing 10 to 15 inches.
"Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge and winds will occur," the hurricane center said in an 11 a.m. discussion. "Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials."
A hurricane watch was issued overnight for the northwestern Bahamas.
During the overnight hours there was increasing consensus between the European and American forecast models _ putting Dorian somewhere in the vicinity of South to Central Florida. Forecasters warn that the models are likely to change in coming days and Dorian is still a threat to anywhere along Florida's east coast between the Keys and Georgia.
Still, some European tracks show an outside chance that Dorian will curl north, hugging the coast rather than making landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds were extending outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds were extending outward up to 105 miles.
"On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday," Senior Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avila wrote in the latest advisory.
Seasonal king tides that are currently affecting parts of South Florida increase the threat of flooding.
Because the storm was still far away from Florida, the slightest change in angle could mean a huge difference in where the landfall occurs.
"We're talking about very small differences here that could make all the difference in the world," Molleda said in a conference call with reporters.
Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded an emergency declaration to cover the entire state, which will ease road restrictions and allow for more fuel to be transported to stations. In the event of evacuation orders, tolls will be suspended, he said.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
