MIAMI _ Hurricane Dorian's path to Florida's coast is paved with storm fuel _ warm water, no land and very little in the atmosphere to disturb the storm's formation.
It's a recipe for a Category 4 storm that could bring winds topping 130 miles per hour and deadly flooding to the Sunshine State on Monday. According to the National Hurricane Center, the Category 1 storm is expected to continue to strengthen on Friday as it makes a turn toward Florida. But where will it come ashore?
It's the key question for millions in Florida and still unanswered.
"A lot will depend on when it makes the turn and where," said Robert Molleda, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.
A wall of high pressure building by Bermuda is expected for force Dorian to turn west sometime Friday, but it's unclear how strong the ridge of air is and how hard it will push the hurricane. A quicker west turn (forced by a stronger ridge) could mean a more southern landfall. A slower turn, a more northern landing.
On Thursday the National Hurricane Center continued to put the center of the future path near Vero Beach, with landfall Monday afternoon. But the computer models analyzing the surrounding weather systems that will steer Dorian remained scattered, and the state remained in the cone of uncertainty.
"Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center," the hurricane center said in its early morning advisory.
The center's 5 p.m. EDT update showed that Dorian could slow down dramatically as it nears land, which raises the possibility the storm could sit off the coast and dump 5 to 10 inches of rain. That drenching rain, coupled with storm surge and an already-elevated tide, could spell severe flooding for wherever Dorian comes ashore.
"The biggest variable when it comes to rainfall amounts in a tropical system is the forward motion of the storm. A slow moving storm would certainly be a big concern for its ability to create copious amounts of rain and cause flooding," Molleda said. "It's still a big concern."
On Thursday afternoon, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in all 67 counties.
"All residents, especially those along the east coast, need to be prepared for possible impacts," DeSantis said in a statement, urging Floridians to have seven days of supplies on hand. "As it increases strength, this storm has the potential to severely damage homes, businesses and buildings, which is why all Floridians should remain vigilant. Do not wait until it is too late to make a plan."
DeSantis assured residents he has strong support from the White House, despite the president's decision to transfer $155 million of FEMA funds toward the southwest border as Dorian approaches.
"He assured me that the federal government would be with us every step of the way," DeSantis said. "They'll be supporting us in any way that they can."
At an event in the White House Rose Garden, President Donald Trump said he would postpone travel to Poland this weekend and remain in Washington to manage the federal response. He was scheduled to depart for Warsaw on Saturday to participate in ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the start of World War II.
"The storm looks like it could be a very, very big one indeed," he said at the event alongside Vice President Mike Pence, who will travel in his place. "Our highest priority is the safety and security of the people."
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is waiting for Hurricane Dorian's forecast to narrow before determining where to deploy resources across Florida.
Jeff Byard, FEMA associate administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery, said the agency was sending personnel to Tallahassee and pre-positioning assets like water and meals across the state.
"It's a phased approach," Byard said. "We work for the governor in these situations but obviously we bring a lot of firepower."
Byard was unable to estimate how many FEMA employees were currently in Florida, though he did say some personnel originally deployed to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands were en route to Florida after Dorian largely spared the Caribbean.
Byard said he spoke with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Thursday about Lake Okeechobee's water levels and the massive lake's aging dike. He said the Corps "feel like they're in good shape with the amount of rain that could fall."
Byard also said the agency is analyzing Dorian's potential impacts and developing contingency plans for key pieces of infrastructure like the St. Lucie nuclear power plant, which lies near the center of the storm's current projected path.
He did note that Dorian's current path gives FEMA and other agencies more time to prepare than they had for Hurricane Michael, which strengthened rapidly into a Category 5 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on the Florida panhandle last year.
"You've got a very strong storm, it's not going to interact with land until it hits Florida and there's very warm water," Byard said. "I don't see this storm weakening as it moves along."
Broward County Mayor Mark Bogen held a news conference Thursday to implore residents to start preparing.
"While we do not know exactly where Hurricane Dorian is going to hit, we do know something from 2017 and that has to do with Hurricane Irma," Bogen said. "Irma was projected to go straight west up the Florida coast and at last minute it deviated through Orlando to Jacksonville."
Bogen said the lesson learned is that everyone needs to be prepared.
He told residents to focus on five things ahead of the storm: Expect a power outage and plan accordingly; know where shelters are but try to come up with an alternative; sign up for the county's alert system; shutter up as soon as possible; and while there are no evacuations yet, Bogen said have a plan in place.
Heads from Broward Sheriff's Office, Broward County Schools, Broward County Sheriff Fire Rescue and the Emergency Operations Center also gave updates.
Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony said all of the county's agencies have been coordinating efforts and making sure everything is in place for the storm.
"Rest assured we are way ahead of things in terms of preparedness," he said.
The U.S. Virgin Islands were cleaning up Thursday after Dorian became a Category 1 hurricane over the U.S. territory on Wednesday.
The Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority said it was still working to restore electricity to some areas of St. Thomas and St. John. And USVI Gov. Albert Bryan Jr. lifted a curfew at 8 a.m. Thursday, saying the roads had been cleared of all debris.
In Puerto Rico life was also getting back to normal after Dorian _ defying early expectations _ largely avoided the big island.
The only known fatality in Puerto Rico due to the storm came when an 80-year-old man fell off his roof in Bayamon, clearing out his gutters in preparation for Dorian.
