MIAMI _ The fate of Florida's coast lies in a northern turn, which could take one of the strongest Atlantic storms in recorded history out into the ocean or send it crashing into the densely populated shore.
Hurricane Dorian spent most of Sunday tearing through the Bahamas as a fearsome Category 5 storm, the strongest ever in the northern Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour, gusts topping 220 mph and around 20 feet of storm surge. Initial images show homes and buildings with sheared off roofs soaked in feet of water.
The threat of such an intense storm _ and the windshield wiper path of its predicted track_ has thrown nearly all of Florida for a loop. Residents up and down the state have emptied gas stations, grocery stores and hardware store. Martin and Palm Beach Counties opened emergency shelters and called for mandatory evacuations in coastal zones. The state suspended many tolls.
With Dorian still 175 miles from West Palm Beach, it's still not clear if the hurricane will come ashore in Florida. The 5 p.m. update showed the powerful storm is predicted to hover over the Bahamas for the next 36 hours, dumping rain and crawling west at 5 mph, before making a gradual turn north just off Florida's coast. Dorian has hurricane-force winds extending 45 miles from its center and tropical-force winds extending 140 miles from its center.
"A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast," forecasters wrote.
It all comes down to that turn the National Hurricane Center predicted will come over the next two days. The chances of the storm turning south unexpectedly, an Andrew-style surprise, are low.
"The track forecasts have developed to such an extent that if it was a possibility we would see that in at least some of the ensemble models," said Hugh Willoughby, former director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. "You can pretty much count on the turn, but the question is how far north?"
The uncertainty had Floridians armoring (and even un-armoring) their homes through the Labor Day weekend.
Nick and Leslie Smiciklas and their 15-year-old daughter Summer plan to evacuate their canal-front home in Vero Beach Monday morning with their dog, two cars and Summer's grandparents. They have already put up their shutters, stowed all their outdoor furniture in the house, and pulled Nick's 23-foot center console fishing boat out of the water and onto a trailer in the yard.
"We were at a standstill all the way up till this morning for me because the storm's been doing crazy things. Yesterday we kinda had a sigh of relief thinking that, okay, it's going stay east of us a little bit _ 50 maybe 100 miles. There's just too many variables about what it could do. If it even gets 20 miles offshore, it could do a tremendous amount of damage in this area right here," Nick said.
The 5 p.m. update prompted a fresh wave of watches and warnings for the Florida coast, which could lead to more mandatory evacuation calls Monday.
The center issued a storm surge warning from Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County line, as well as a storm surge watch from north of Deerfield Beach to Lantana and from the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County line.
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation over the next 48 hours A warning means the danger is during the next 36 hours. Potential surges could be between two to four feet from Deerfield Beach north to the Jupiter Inlet and four to seven feet from the Volusia/Brevard County line to Jupiter Inlet.
The northwestern Bahamas, minus Andros Island, and Jupitler Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line are under a hurricane warning. Andros Island, north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County line are under a hurricane watch.
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inletis under a tropical storm warning. A tropical storm watch is in effect for north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach and Lake Okeechobee.
"For us in South Florida, the message today still is: Prepare, wait and see," Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez said at a news conference that began shortly after 1 p.m. at the county's emergency-operations center in Doral.
The former Miami fire chief led off by expressing concern about Dorian's ravaging of the Bahamas.
"I just cannot fathom what the people in the Bahamas are going through right now," Gimenez said.
He said he was calling the White House to offer Miami-Dade's urban search-and-rescue teams for deployment to the Bahamas as part of an international relief operation.
Maurice Kemp, a deputy mayor and Gimenez's interim fire chief, said the teams could deploy as early as Sunday night.
For now, county government is operating as it would on a normal Sunday, with the exception of the closing of PortMiami on Sunday to all vessel traffic.
Port chief Juan Kuryla said the U.S. Coast Guard made the decision, which was expected with a hurricane so close. "That's typical," he said.
Gimenez said Miami-Dade's Solid Waste Department would decide by 5 p.m. whether to cancel trash pick up for properties that have county service on Mondays.
He also noted that while Miami-Dade transit currently plans normal holiday service on Monday, TriRail will not be running trains on Labor Day.
AIRPORT SNARLS
The hurricane was already causing travel snarls during the busy Labor Day holiday weekend.
Miami International Airport reported 19 canceled arrivals and 17 canceled departures as of 1 p.m. Sunday due to Dorian, according to Greg Chin, communications director for the Miami-Dade Aviation Department. All the affected flights were scheduled to and from the Bahamas and other international destinations. No domestic flights were impacted.
At Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL), 36 flights had been canceled as of noon Sunday due to the storm.
"We're being impacted not by the local weather, but by the surrounding areas," said Greg Meyer, spokesperson for FLL. "We've had some cancellations with some of our international carriers. And many of the existing flights were already full because of the Labor Day weekend. But we're still running at full capacity."
The shift in track put the hurricane about 50 miles closer to the Florida coast and increased the chances of wind threats from Miami-Dade to Daytona Beach. The eye of the storm would remain 70 miles offshore, but the closer proximity leaves Florida more vulnerable to slight wobbles in the hurricane's path.
If the storm continues its current path and speed, its eye would be near Jupiter in 48 hours.
"Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week," the 8 a.m. public advisory said. "Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local government officials."
Indian River County emergency officials encouraged all residents and visitors east of U.S. 1 to voluntarily evacuate. Mandatory evacuations in Indian River County are set to begin Monday. Shelters will open Monday, including special needs and pet-friendly locations. Shelter locations and times of opening will be announced Monday morning.
"We continue to encourage residents to prepare as this dangerous Category 5 hurricane comes dangerously close to our community," read an advisory from Indian River County. "Hurricane Dorian continues to be an unpredictable storm and should not be taken lightly."
The slight shift in the storm's expected path was the result of new computer models that suggested Dorian would meander over the northwest Bahamas for the next few days and drift closer to the Florida coast before turning north. The timing of that turn will make a huge difference in how badly the hurricane impacts the state.
Sunday morning, state officials said they expected additional storm watches to be announced soon on Florida's east coast as Dorian nears the state.
"It's Groundhog Day #5," State Emergency Response Team (SERT) chief Kevin Guthrie told the Florida Emergency Operations Center Sunday morning, referencing Dorian's slow-moving path.
He said logistical teams should focus on using in-state mutual aid agreements as the storm's uncertain track swung slightly offshore in the Atlantic, so that resources would be available for the state's most threatened counties should Dorian hit hard.
"We're starting to see more of the Panhandle free up, some of the west coast free up," he said. The state has already begun using some of those agreements to prepare pumps, transportation assets and sanitation packages, SERT logistics chief Eugene Buerkle said.
ON THE GROUND
But the warnings issued Sunday morning were already having an effect on residents in the impacted areas. At BagelWorks in Boca Raton, a restaurant and deli that boasts "ridiculously good food'' and is perpetually packed, patrons were still streaming in around 11 a.m. Sunday, though there were a few more empty tables than usual.
Robin Karas, 58, a popular waitress there the past 10 years, lives about 20 miles north of Boca in Lake Worth. But Karas was dutifully serving freshly baked bagels and eggs and breakfast food to her customers.
That doesn't mean she wasn't nervous.
"We'll be notified by tonight when they see what the winds will do as to what's going on here at work,'' Karas said. "I'm very nervous and kind of stressed.
"Until the hurricane is out of the Bahamas I am extremely uncertain of what it's going to do to us, so I'm very prepared. I have to stay with my daughter because her husband is in law enforcement and they have two small daughters, ages 4 and 2. They live about six minutes away from me and have impact windows and shutters and a generator and propane so I feel a little safer there."
The coming storm didn't seem to scare off beach-goers and surfers judging by the crowd at Stuart Beach Sunday afternoon, which was breezy, but still sunny and hot.
Rob Paulk, 65, a Florida native and life-long surfer actually drove up from Boca Raton to ride some Dorian-produced swells.
"There's better waves up here than in the south," he said. "Out of the shadow of Bahama Bank, most of the surfers in South Florida will come here."
Alanah Cannovo, 25, lives with her family in Stuart. She decided to come to the beach after her father decided the family would stay home because of the easterly forecast track.
"Why not, it's a beautiful day," she said.
Amanda and Mark Fossati lounged in the sand trying to get away from the constant storm updates.
"I think the Weather Channel is in cahoots with Publix," Amanda said, joking, but clearly weary of days of changing forecasts and the back-and-forth discussions about staying or going.
"They create a panic, and I'm not falling for it anymore," she said.
Mark said "he's a little more conservative" than his wife when it comes to understanding officials, forecasters and journalists preparing the public to impending hurricanes, but by Sunday, he'd had enough.
"So, we decided today we can't spend anymore time in the house, so we came to the beach," he said.
Miami Herald staff writers Joey Flechas, Susan Miller Degnan, Doug Hanks and David Goodhue contributed to this report.
