FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ A catastrophic Category 4 Hurricane Dorian could still strike anywhere along Florida's east coast between the Keys and Georgia, forecasters said Thursday.
Where it makes landfall _ this long Labor Day Weekend or early next week _ all depends on where and when the storm makes a left turn.
Those key questions are not uncommon this many days in advance. And the uncertainty was being aided by the disparity between the different weather prediction systems that were continuing to disagree on Dorian's path. While the European and British forecast models were aiming Dorian toward South Florida, the American forecast model had Dorian tracking across Central Florida.
What we do know is that this will become an extremely dangerous storm, made even worse by the fact that it's slow-moving. That means it will linger, with ferocious winds and torrential rain. And life-threatening storm surge could strike anywhere in Florida, under the current forecast.
Seasonal King Tides that are currently affecting parts of South Florida increase the threat of flooding.
The National Hurricane Center's track forecast was continuing to creep south from Central Florida toward South Florida. The most recent forecast, issued at 5 p.m. Thursday, showed Dorian coming ashore on the Treasure Coast, or the stretch of coastline between Palm Beach County in South Florida and the Space Coast, home to Cape Canaveral, to the north.
The potential impact window will start to come more into focus on Friday afternoon, said Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service's South Florida forecast branch, when the location and direction of the storm's gradual turn toward the west-northwest starts to become apparent.
If the turn happens earlier the storm would be set on a path more likely to hit South Florida. But if Dorian continues to drift north, a later turn would carry the storm closer to Central or North Florida.
Because the storm was still far away from Florida, the slightest change in angle could mean a huge difference in where the landfall occurs.
"Were talking about very small differences here that could make all the difference in the world," Molleda said in a conference call with reporters.
The 5 p.m. EDT Thursday advisory from the National Hurricane Center had Dorian about 330 miles east of the southeastern Bahamas with maximum winds measuring 85 mph, making Dorian a Category 1 hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds were extending outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds were extending outward up to 90 miles.
Wind strength forecasts from the hurricane center said Thursday that Dorian's peak winds are expected to reach 130 mph as it closes in on Florida _ the minimum strength for a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane.
You should already be preparing for the storm, stocking up on enough food, water, gas, propane, cash, etc. to last for at least a week. Lines at gas stations and supply stores snaked through surrounding roads Thursday.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded an emergency declaration to cover the entire state, which will ease road restrictions and allow for more fuel to be transported to stations. In the event of evacuation orders, tolls will be suspended, he said.
DeSantis said he expects the state's Emergency Operations Center to be fully activated Friday.
"If you're in the path of this storm anywhere on the East Coast of Florida, make your preparations," DeSantis said Thursday afternoon. "Take action."
DeSantis said he spoke with President Donald Trump on Wednesday night.
Trump said Thursday that Florida is "going to be totally ready" for the storm.
Trump is canceling a trip to Poland this weekend, so he can monitor Hurricane Dorian.
The National Weather Service's Molleda said South Florida will likely begin to feel tropical storm-force winds by Sunday afternoon.
Be prepared, officials urged, as Florida residents started flocking to stores and gas stations for supplies and fuel on Wednesday. Meanwhile, cruise lines were also making adjustments to their Caribbean routes. And the Rolling Stones rescheduled their Saturday concert at Hard Rock Stadium to Friday instead.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
